Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 151930 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 330 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER INTO MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING RATHER COOL BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE RACING INTO NEW ENGLAND WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS QUITE LIMITED AND LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BUT HIGHEST OVER NW NC. CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AND CHANGE OF AIR MASS WILL BE MODEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING JUST A FEW DEGREES AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MAY OFFSET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TODAY..UPPER 60S FAR NW TO LOW 80S OUT EAST WITH MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS TIME FRAME WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROFING IN THE EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAYS NIGHT. MODELS INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES..ABOVE ONE INCH ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEHIND THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE FORCAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FINALLY DRIVE SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BLEND IS FAVORED WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF LOWERS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE +4 TO +8 RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY... CIGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE TODAY BUT HOLDING MAINLY IN MVFR RANGES UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW..BUT VSBYS HAVE ALL RECOVERED TO VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS REST OF THE DAY AND RAINFALL AS ANY SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE AND LIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AGAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT LIKELY ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR DURING THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY KBLF/KLWB...LOOKS TO COME LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND. SOME POTENTIAL TO ALSO SEE FOG REDEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL INCLUDE A LATE NIGHT VSBY REDUCTION OUT EAST EXCLUDING KROA OTRW SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... UPSLOPE MOISTURE MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WHILE EXPECT BRIEF DOWNSLOPE TO BRING MAINLY VFR ELSW INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK BEFORE WEDGING IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE PESKY DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE WITH TRAPPED RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY KEEP SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS STUCK IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ESPCLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL EAST/SE FLOW TAKES SHAPE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...JH/PC SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/PC

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