Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 172018 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure was along the Mid Atlantic and Southeast Coast will drift northeast tonight. Arctic high pressure over the Central and Southern Plains will move into the Gulf Coast region by late Thursday. Temperatures will moderate over the weekend ahead of the next low pressure system approaching the eastern United States on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS of 318 PM EST Wednesday... Winter Weather Advisories were posted for Black Ice in western North Carolina until noon on Thursday. Winter Weather Warnings remain in effect for Eastern portions of forecast area until 9 pm. Wind Chills Advisories are in effect for the western mountains into Thursday morning. The upper trough will drift east across the region this evening and off the coast later tonight into Thursday morning. The associated surface front will track east into the Atlantic ocean. Good low level moisture convergence and lift will continue bands of snow in the east this afternoon into tonight. Snow will taper off this evening into tonight from west to east. Used a blend of the HRRR, Conshort and Nam for pops and weather this afternoon into tonight. Low temperatures will range from the single digits in the mountains to the mid teens in the Piedmont. Minimum temperatures tonight may need to be lowered to account for the fresh snow cover. The combination of winds and temperatures will produce low wind chills values overnight into Thursday morning in the mountains. The melting and freezing of snow will result in black ice across potion of western North Carolina. The rest of the state of North Carolina may need a black ice advisories also tonight into Thursday morning where such advisories are issued. The upper low will continue to travel east Thursday into Thursday night. Very cold Arctic high pressure across the Southern Plains will build east Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will diminish fairly quickly during the day Thursday as high pressure builds in from the southwest. With the warming at 850mb and near full sunshine, High temperatures will vary from the mid 20s in Northwest Greenbrier county to the lower 40s along the southern Blue Ridge. Under mostly clear skies with a snow pack, Low temperatures Thursday night will be cold with readings from the single digits in the mountains to the lower 20s in the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 318 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure will travel east across the Southeast States Friday into Friday night. This will result in a warming trend as flow become southwest. 850mb temperatures will be in the 0C to +5C range. With bright sunshine and west winds, high temperatures will warm into the lower 409s in the west to the lower 50s in the east. Low temperatures Friday night will generally be in the lower 20s to near 30 degrees.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 235 PM EST Wednesday... Little change this period with high pressure heading east late in the weekend. An upper trough over the Gulf Coast states and return flow may bring a few showers Sunday morning to the mountains of WV/Far SW Va. We stay warmer than normal ahead of a deep trough/closed low moving across the central U.S. Monday which then sends a front across us Tuesday with a threat of showers. Colder air behind it may bring a few snow showers to the mountains of WV, but temps behind this system are not as cold as the pattern we are in now.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Wednesday... LIFR and IFR conditions will continue with bands of snow this afternoon in to tonight. Outside of snow, conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR. KLYH,and KDAN will have several hours of visibility less than one mile with ceilings less than 1000ft this afternoon into this evening. As the closed upper low moves from the Tennessee Valley across Virginia, snow will end from west to east across the mountains. Ceilings will become VFR in the mountains this afternoon into tonight, then in the foothills and piedmont tonight. There may be a brief period of upslope snow showers in southeast West Virginia between 00Z/7PM and 06Z/1AM. Winds will also be gusty in the mountains from the northwest with gusts of 20 to 30 knots. High pressure builds in tonight. High pressure will result in VFR conditions for all taf sites on Thursday. Medium confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Discussion... Dry air will and high pressure will cover the region Thursday afternoon through Sunday. VFR conditions are expected as well as warming temperatures. Moisture will return to west Sunday night into Monday with sub-VFR conditions possible. VFR conditions should return on Tuesday. && .EQUIPMENT...
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As of 245 PM EST Wednesday... NOAA Weather Radio, WXL60 (Roanoke Transmitter) which broadcasts at 162.475 MHz remains off the air. Telephone company will be working on this and hope to have it back up by Thursday afternoon.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ007- 009>020. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ044- 058-059. NC...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002- 018. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for NCZ001>003- 018-019. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for NCZ004>006-020. WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ042>044- 507-508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...KK/WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/KK EQUIPMENT...PM

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