Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 211736 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 136 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front extended from the Tennesse Valley east into North Carolina this afternoon. This front will move south tonight and by late Wednesday will trail across the Gulf Coast states. A large high pressure system builds in over the eastern United Stated behind this front for Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday a low pressure system will track out of the Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday... A cold front is draped across the Tennessee Valley with a stationary front situated along the VA/NC border. A disturbance is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon and track east-southeast into North-South Carolina. While this is happening, the stationary front will jump into North Carolina by this evening. Convection from this disturbance may clip the North Carolina High Country late this afternoon/evening, but the bulk of it will stay well south. A theta-E boundary is situated over the southern Ohio Valley this afternoon. This boundary may generate a few showers across the region between midnight and sunrise, but mainly looking at overcast conditions. This boundary moves south into the Carolinas by mid morning with most clear skies to follow. With clouds and a slow moving Theta-E boundary overnight, temperatures will remain mild with readings in the mid to upper 30s across the mountains to mid to upper 40s east. These temperatures are around 5F to 10F warmer than normal. Cool high pressure builds in from the north during the day Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will be about 5F cooler than normal with highs in the 40s across the mountains to 50s east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure over the Great lakes will build south into our region Wednesday. The high center will build eastward and reach Pennsylvania by Wednesday night and then slide southeast to the Virginia coast by Thursday afternoon. A dramatic change in temperatures is expected Wednesday as cold air pushes south into our region. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 30s in northwest Greenbrier county to around 60 degrees along the southern Blue Ridge. Cold air Wednesday night will send temperatures down to around 20 degrees in the northern mountains to near 30 degrees in the Piedmont. Under sunshine, High temperatures Thursday will warm to the lower 40s in the west to the lower 50s in the east. Cool wedge of high pressure will move off the Virginia coast Thursday night. Low temperatures will moderate Thursday night with readings generally from the the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... As the high center tracks east into the Atlantic ocean, a warm front will push moisture over the mountains Friday and Friday night. With the ECMWF and GFS pushing some moisture into our Northwest, increased clouds and allowed for a slight chance for showers. Elsewhere, a bubble high will likely remain east of the Blue Ridge and over the foothills and piedmont counties into Friday night. Kept temperatures on the cooler side with readings Friday from the lower 50s in the west to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees in the east. It should be dry Friday night with low temperatures generally from around 40 degrees to the upper 40s. As a cold front approaches from the west, the wedge should be completely erode out of the region by Saturday afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. An area of low pressure is expected to track from the Midwest Saturday night towards the Ohio Valley Sunday. A cold front and its associated convection will move through our area Sunday and Sunday night. The track of the system and timing of prefrontal convection into the region will be the biggest influence on the potential for strong to severe storms. In the wake of the cold front, drier air should push into our region for Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday... A cold front is draped across the Tennessee Valley with a stationary front situated over the forecast area (KBLF to KLYH). A disturbance is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon and track east into North Carolina. While this is happening, the stationary front will jump into North Carolina by this evening. Storms from this disturbance and the movement of the boundary will stay south and impact travel routes going into Charlotte NC into this evening. Travel routes across the forecast area and points north should not see very much in the way of precipitation during the forecast period. Only sites with restrictions will be SE WV (LWB-BLF) where moist westerly flow will keep MVFR through 09z, then dry air will promote VFR/SKC through Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Wednesday with northerly winds becoming easterly late. Extended Aviation Discussion... By Thursday the high will wedge in from the northeast, so will remain mainly VFR. It is possible that residual lower ceilings may get trapped especially along and east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday night into Thursday, resulting in possible MVFR ceilings. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/RCS NEAR TERM...AL/AMS/RCS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH/RCS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.