Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270556 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 156 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1100 PM EDT FRIDAY... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAD ERODED WITH JUST THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS STILL UNDER THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH...BUT THIN CLOUDS OVER THE THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND PER THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THE SKIES HOWEVER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE. EVEN WITH LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NORTHEAST...HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE CLEARING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY WEATHER HAZARD OF CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FOG SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE (CLASSIC WEDGE) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO AN INSITU WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GULF WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND...EVENTUALLY OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE WEDGE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOW FAR NORTH DOES THIS RAIN GO DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT. THE ECM HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS ALLOWING RAIN TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HAS A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH RAIN OVERCOMING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS PRINTING OUT TWICE AS MUCH RAINFALL COMPARED TO THE ECM...LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER 85H EASTERLY JET. THE GFS TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS CSTAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION WITH THE LOW TRACKS EAST...LIMITING RAINFALL FROM ADVANCING TO THE NORTH. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER TO LOW POPS (CHANCE) NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL GREATLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES MONDAY. AREAS SEEING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F. AREAS REMAINING MOSTLY DRY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AND TO THE SOUTH...THEREFORE HAVE NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN A COLD FRONT MAY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONTS TIMING FOR FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS DRY FOR POPS...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. WITH ANOTHER COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY... IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...LESS STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THAN IN RECENT DAYS AND MOIST GROUND WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW HAS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG. LWB JUST WENT DOWN TO 1SM BR BKN007 AND WOULD EXPECT VERY QUICKLY FOR THEM TO DROP TO 1/4SM FG VV001 AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. BCB WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE IFR-LIFR FG DEVELOP AFT 08Z...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY THERE IS A STRATUS DECK EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NW NC UP THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD THE BCB/ROA AREA. THIS MAY BE TRANSIENT ALLOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. MOST OTHER SITES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MVFR BR DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR-LIFR FG CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ANYWHERE GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES AFT 14Z WITH JUST SOME SCT SC/CU THROUGH THE DAY AND SCT CI SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. WIND REMAINING NE-ESE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-9KTS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF GUST TODAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... ASIDE FOR REPEAT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS IN RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ESPCLY OVER SE SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING BACK VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...RAB/PM

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