Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 041441 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1041 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HANG AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MAYBE SOME THUNDER MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TODAY. AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WILL DRIVE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION... AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z AND EAST TO THE DELMARVA BY MIDDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SRN WV MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF FLOYD VA THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF DRIER WX LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH LEADS TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY BUT MORESO OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST...SO MOST WILL JUST SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...RANGING FROM 60 TO 65 MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO FAR SW VA. MODELS ARE FAVORING A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TN/NC BORDER NORTHWARD TO ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED....WITH LESS COVERAGE FROM THE NC FOOTHILLS TO THE NW NC PIEDMONT. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PUT DOWN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS. GIVEN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL...PLACES LIKE BEECH MTN AND MT ROGERS MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND 8AM THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WEST...TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BY THURSDAY MUCH LIKE HOW IT WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF APRIL. HOWEVER, UNLIKE APRIL WHEN THE TWO CLOSED LOWS WERE OVER THE PLAINS AND OVER BERMUDA WHILE THE EAST COAST WAS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, CALIFORNIA AND THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL HAVE THE CLOSED LOWS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS. THUS, THE OVERALL TREND IS COOL, CLOUDY, AND DAMP CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. DUE TO LITTLE INSTABILITY AND JUST SHOWERY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY FOR THE HWO AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE LIKELY SHOWERS AS THE CUT OFF LOW PIVOTS OVERHEAD. BEHIND THIS LOW, COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE COURTESY OF A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE, WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST NIGHT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. AS THE CLOSED LOW WOBBLES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRIDAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LEWISBURG TO BOONE COULD BE THE LAST AREAS TO SEE THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE MID-ATLANTIC MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW VCNTY OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY WIN OUT BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS BRING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR AMOUNTS ATTM. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME BKN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT BLF/LWB WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. LOOK FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WE HEAD TO THIS EVENING WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT MOVING IN. OVERALL APPEARS THE EASTERN TERMINALS ROA/LYH/DAN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND SHOWERS AT LYH. BLF/LWB WILL BE GOING FROM VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT BETWEEN 01Z-08Z...WITH BCB TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR WORSE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SOME VFR IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE AVIATION CONDITION SHOULD START IMPROVING BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...MBS/WP SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/WP

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