Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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756
FXUS61 KRNK 271525
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1125 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy front will be nearly stationary from the Mid Atlantic
region to the mid Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Weak impulses tracking along the front will combine with deep
moisture to produce periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The
front will finally move well south of the area on Tuesday or
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1110 AM EDT Wednesday...

Isolated showers late this morning near the Blue Ridge east of
Fancy Gap, VA, with a few more showers in far SW VA.

Models coming in initiating convection across the western forecast
area by 18z/2pm, then shifting the storms east thru late
afternoon. There is some disagreement in synoptic models somewhat
with the 06z GFS hanging onto higher threat along/west of the Blue
Ridge all day while the NAM and ECM shift some of the storms into
the piedmont. The high-res models focus activity along the
southern Blue Ridge, northwest toward Southern WV, and actually
show the mountains keeping most of the activity through late
afternoon. For now will have high chance pops cwa wide, higher in
the west and north. The better dynamics with 25-30kt effective
shear will stay in northern VA but should dip far enough south to
increase threat of organized convection into southern VA.

Still looking at highs from the mid to upper 80s west to lower to
mid 90s east. Heat indices should stay under 105 so no advisory
needed out east.

Previous valid discussion...

Precipitable water values range from 1.8 inches in the western
county warning area to 2.0 inches in the extreme east. Storm
motion will be southeast about 20 knots. Areas that had heavy rain
on Tuesday will be more susceptible to flooding problems if there
are storms again in the same locations today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...

We are in for a continuation of unsettled weather as a shallow upper
trof becomes established over the eastern part of the country through
the weekend. This will allow a steady stream of short wave energy to
move into the region from the southwest, while the upper jet provides
diffluence to aid synoptic ascent. These factors will be combining with
warm/humid/unstable air along a diffuse old frontal boundary lingering
across the region. This all spells a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms for the latter portion of the week and into the weekend.
The variability among guidance solutions is still creating a good
degree of uncertainty in timing/location, but the general consensus is
for increasing shear to bring a severe threat to the area for Thursday
afternoon into Friday, with a possibility for an organized MCS. High
precipitable water values will also make excessive rainfall a threat,
so hydro issues are a concern during this period as well. There is
still much to be determined with this scenario so it warrants close
attention in later model runs. Coverage of showers/storms looks
considerable again for Saturday but with less shear and dynamic support
so a more limited severe threat.

Temperatures will continue to run a bit above normal with highs going
from the mid 90s to lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and generally
low/mid 80s to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Overall pattern situation favors storminess every day but especially
in the afternoon/evening. A frontal boundary situated from the Ohio
Valley over to the Central Plains will slowly shift southeast into
the Virginias and North Carolina over the weekend. Airmass will
remain unstable and moist. Some issue with how far this front makes
it as 5h ridge may be hard to break, but still looks like belt of
westerlies will shift at least into our northern forecast area over
the weekend.

Highs will be seasonal with lows slightly above normal through most
of the period. Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s mountains,
to upper 80s to around 90 east. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s
mountains, to upper 60s to around 70 east.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday...

Locations that had rain Tuesday afternoon and evening have MVFR
to LIFR fog this morning.LIFR visibilities at KLWB will improve to
VFR by 14Z/10AM.

Threat for storms again this afternoon but for now will keep it
VCTS. 00Z models were showing the mountains as the preferred
location for storm development. Showers and thunderstorms will
also develop along a wavy stationary front from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. KLWB is close
enough to this axis to have thunderstorms this afternoon.

Extended aviation discussion...

The upper ridge will remain just south of the area and a residual
front nearby through Sunday. This should allow for periodic daily
convective coverage until the boundary either fades or sinks
farther south. Appears more widespread sub-VFR possible with
thunderstorms later Thursday with a stronger wave along the front
with perhaps some decrease in coverage by the weekend as this
feature passes. At least diurnal MVFR/IFR possible each
afternoon/evening through Sunday for now. Late night and early
morning fog will likely occur at the usual valley locations, and
those chances increase across the entire region if any rain occurs
during the afternoon or evening at any site.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for Wednesday (7/27)

Roanoke.....103 in 1936
Lynchburg...103 in 1936
Danville....102 in 1952
Blacksburg...94 in 1993
Bluefield....89 in 1966

Record highs for July 28

Roanoke......104 in 1930
Lynchburg....103 in 1936
Danville.....102 in 1952
Blacksburg....95 in 1966
Bluefield.....90 in 2011

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...PM



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