Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 272331
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE...
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION...DRY NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OCCURRENCE OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS WEATHER HAZARD...NOT MUCH
TO DISCUSS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD EASILY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHLAND VALLEYS OF VA/WV.

DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH SUNDAY...THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND GIVING WAY TO
INFLUENCE FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST.
NORTHWARD DRIFT OF MOISTURE SUNDAY WILL COME IN THE FORM OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FIRST...FOLLOWED BY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MORE SO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
80 IN THE PIEDMONT OF VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON TRACK OF SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE BEING EJECTED
OUT OF A GULF DISTURBANCE. THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND WARM
MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING INSITU WEDGE WILL DETERMINE IF EVERYONE HAS
RAIN OR NOT AND AMOUNT DURING THIS EVENT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE...NORTH OF THE GULF DISTURBANCE BUT
PRIMARILY BEING GUIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL TRACK FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS (MONDAY EVENING) ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
(TUESDAY) THEN OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (TUESDAY NIGHT). MODELS ARE IN
A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER
SOUTH...POSSIBLE UP TO 3-4 INCHES IF TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH. NORTH
OF THE BORDER...UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY A QUARTER
OF AN INCH /0.25/. ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE AN INSITU WEDGE THAT COULD
REDUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH WITH DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED
IN...WHILE ENHANCING RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG EASTERN SLOPES
WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES
ALONG WITH THE MODELS AND WPC. WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE...THESE 24-36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 60F-70F ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER
TO 65F-75F TO THE NORTH. START TIME OF RAIN AND DURATION MAY RESULT
IN COLDER TEMPERATURES SOUTH...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE EAST MAY HAVE
ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING AND/OR NORTHEAST WINDS
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE GULF DISTURBANCE AND SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EASTERLY FLOW COULD PRODUCE DRIZZLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
ADVANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
TRACK EAST AND EXIT THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE COOL
WEDGE LINGERS. THE WEDGE ERODES SOME FRIDAY...BUT IT MAY TAKE THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. A FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH 04Z SUNDAY...WITH LOCAL
IFR-LIFR BR/FG DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...IMPACTING
KBCB/KLWB AFTER 04Z SUNDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z/10AM
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...WITH A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION MON-WED. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO PERSIST OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...PROMOTING
CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT UNTIL THAT TAKES PLACE...WE MAY
BE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIRLY POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PM



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