Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 270237
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAD ERODED WITH
JUST THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS STILL UNDER THE
STRATUS. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH...BUT THIN CLOUDS OVER
THE THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND PER THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THE SKIES HOWEVER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY CLOUD
FREE. EVEN WITH LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NORTHEAST...HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
CLEARING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED...READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED.

THE ONLY WEATHER HAZARD OF CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE NEW RIVER...GREENBRIER
AND THE UPPER JAMES. FOG SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE (CLASSIC WEDGE) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO AN INSITU WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GULF WILL
MOVE FURTHER INLAND...EVENTUALLY OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE WEDGE
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOW FAR NORTH DOES THIS RAIN
GO DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT. THE ECM HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS ALLOWING RAIN TO
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HAS A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH RAIN OVERCOMING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS PRINTING OUT TWICE AS
MUCH RAINFALL COMPARED TO THE ECM...LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER 85H
EASTERLY JET. THE GFS TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS CSTAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION WITH THE LOW TRACKS EAST...LIMITING RAINFALL FROM
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER TO LOW
POPS (CHANCE) NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN SHOULD EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THE PIEDMONT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE RAIN WILL GREATLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES MONDAY. AREAS SEEING RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F. AREAS
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUNDAY
WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AND TO
THE SOUTH...THEREFORE HAVE NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN A COLD FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON
THE FRONTS TIMING FOR FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
IS DRY FOR POPS...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

WITH ANOTHER COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT FROM NE TO SW THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR PER MSAS GRADUALLY SPREADS FARTHER SOUTH DOWN THE BLUE
RIDGE. HOWEVER APPEARS ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WONT MIX OUT
BEFORE SUNSET WHICH MAY LEAVE VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS FROM KDAN
SW INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ESPCLY AROUND KROA/KBCB BUT APPEARS IFFY GIVEN DEGREE OF DRY AIR.
OTRW SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT WITH CLEARING
SKIES WILL COME THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB AND KBCB EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND KLYH
AND KBLF AS WELL BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z/10AM WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FOR REPEAT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS IN RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ESPCLY OVER SE
SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING BACK VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PM


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