Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 201917
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.