Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 251838
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING US DRY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND MOVE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT THE
AXIS OF THE 5H TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE COLDER
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EASTWARD. UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM
AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN IN WEDGE FORMATION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MAY COMBINE WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AS PWATS BUMP UP A BIT. FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TO SPARK ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN AND SLIGHTLY EXPAND ISOLATED POPS BLUE RIDGE BOTH
DAYS.

OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS PENDING THE DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN RETURN. TEMPS TO REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 70S WEST TO LOW/MID 80S EAST AND LOWS
50S MOUNTAINS TO LOW/MID 60S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MEAN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND WILL BE
INFILTRATED BY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
AND ATTEMPT TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TO WHAT DEGREE THIS OCCURS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY GIVEN
POTENTIAL TO SEE RIDGING STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
APPROACH OF ERIKA FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DOES
APPEAR THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST...AND MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS TO THE NW. GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE PER THE WEAK FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF ANY UPSTREAM FEATURES AT TIMES...AND
SEEN IN LATEST MODEL PWATS...SUPPORTS SOME INCREASE IN DAILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE RIDGES
WHERE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS...WITH BEST CHANCES PERHAPS SUNDAY GIVEN
SOME COOLING ALOFT...AND POSSIBLE REMNANT WAVE OF DANNY SLIDING UP
ALONG THE FRONT PER GFS BEFORE UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH PC WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY
EAST DURING THE DAY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL BECOME MORE HOT/HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARMING ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 EAST WITH MOSTLY 80S ELSEWHERE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TAF SITE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT WILL BE AT LWB. ANY FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIODS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING IT
VFR. MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG THAT
DISSIPATES QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE FAVORED TERMINALS LWB/BCB.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BLACKSBURG RADAR REMAIN DOWN FOR SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE UPGRADES
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOULD BE UP BY 20Z/4PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.