Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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580
FXUS61 KRNK 210849
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
449 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front extended from North Carolina and Kentucky to across
southeast Missouri this morning. This front will move south today
and tonight and by late Wednesday will trail across the Gulf Coast
states. A large high pressure system builds in over the eastern
United Stated behind this front for Wednesday and Thursday. On
Friday and Saturday a low pressure system will track out of the
Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

Isolated showers are expected this morning with the best coverage of
precipitation north of a line from Lewisburg to Lynchburg, similar
the latest HRRR forecasts. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop afternoon along a south of a cold
front. This will mainly be over southern Virginia and northern
North Carolina. By this evening the front will extend from the
Outer Banks to central Arkansas.

Winds turn to the north and northwest behind the front with the best
push of colder and drier air advecting south after 06Z/2AM. Will
have a dry forecast for late tonight in all but northern North
Carolina.

Enough breaks in the high clouds east of the Blue Ridge this morning
that there will be good heating. Plus winds will be in a downslope
direction so will stay on the warmer side of guidance for afternoon
highs in the east. How long low clouds remain over the west will
have a large influence on maximum temperatures. There will be a
north to south gradient tonight in minimum temperatures from the
lower 20s in part of southeast West Virginia to the mid to upper 40s
in the North Carolina piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure over the Great lakes will build south into our region
Wednesday. The high center will build eastward and reach
Pennsylvania by Wednesday night and then slide southeast to the
Virginia coast by Thursday afternoon. A dramatic change in
temperatures is expected Wednesday as cold air pushes south into our
region. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the upper 30s
in northwest Greenbrier county to around 60 degrees along the
southern Blue Ridge. Cold air Wednesday night will send temperatures
down to around 20 degrees in the northern mountains to near 30
degrees in the Piedmont. Under sunshine, High temperatures Thursday
will warm to the lower 40s in the west to the lower 50s in the east.
Cool wedge of high pressure will move off the Virginia coast
Thursday night. Low temperatures will moderate Thursday night with
readings generally from the the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

As the high center tracks east into the Atlantic ocean, a warm front
will push moisture over the mountains Friday and Friday night. With
the ECMWF and GFS pushing some moisture into our Northwest,
increased clouds and allowed for a slight chance for showers.
Elsewhere, a bubble high will likely remain east of the Blue Ridge
and over the foothills and piedmont counties into Friday night. Kept
temperatures on the cooler side with readings Friday from the lower
50s in the west to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees in the east. It
should be dry Friday night with low temperatures generally from
around 40 degrees to the upper 40s.

As a cold front approaches from the west, the wedge should be
completely erode out of the region by Saturday afternoon with
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the
forecast area. An area of low pressure is expected to track from the
Midwest Saturday night towards the Ohio Valley Sunday. A cold front
and its associated convection will move through our area Sunday and
Sunday night. The track of the system and timing of prefrontal
convection into the region will be the biggest influence on the
potential for strong to severe storms. In the wake of the cold
front, drier air should push into our region for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

Radar showed a band of rain moving east, away from KDAN and
KLYH. Another cluster of showers was approaching from West
Virginia. SPC-HRRR has this precipitation weakening but moving
across KLWB then KLYH by 09Z/5AM before dissipating.

Boundary from southern Missouri into the southern Appalachians
will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms today. Storms
that develop over Tennessee will move east into North Carolina
this afternoon and evening. Both front will continue to move
south overnight and will be well into central and southern North
Carolina by Wednesday morning.

Northwest wind will combine with low level moisture to generate
upslope MVFR/IFR low clouds mainly west of the Blue Ridge early this
morning. The lower ceilings will hang in for most of the day
over the mountains, while sites east of the Blue Ridge should
become VFR this morning and remain as such through Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure builds in for Wednesday which should improve
ceilings back to VFR.

By Thursday the high will wedge in from the northeast, so will
remain mainly VFR. It is possible that residual lower ceilings
may get trapped especially along and east of the Blue Ridge
Wednesday night into Thursday, resulting in possible MVFR
ceilings. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH



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