Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 282300 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 700 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over or near the region for the next several days. Disturbances moving along this boundary will allow for periodic rounds of showers and storms. Hot and humid conditions will continue into at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 PM EDT Thursday... Best thunderstorm activity currently is heading east of Lynchburg. Showers and storms will continue across the area through this evening. The activity will be focused near two upper air disturbances. The one is progressing through northern Virginia, so activity in the northeast part of the area should start to wane as the disturbance continues heading eastward. The other is approaching the region through northeast Tennessee so we should see coverage increase again across the southwest part of the are later this evening. As of 240 PM EDT Thursday... Around 100 PM EDT, the first of now a small collections of showers began to form. Currently, activity across our region was primarily located between Radford, VA and West Jefferson, NC. Some isolated thunderstorms were in this mix as well. Other isolated activity was between Union and Rainelle, WV, and also Rustburg and Buckingham, VA. A greater concentration of showers and storms was extending from eastern Kentucky north into central West Virginia. It is this convection that is expected to enter the western portion of our area between roughly 400PM and 500PM and become the dominate weather producer across the forecast region this evening. It is expected to make progression eastward, impacting at least the central and northern thirds of the area. Concurrently, additional isolated to scattered coverage is expected in advance of it with the least coverage across the far southeastern part of the area. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm watch for much of our region, including all of our West Virginia counties and all but Halifax and Charlotte Counties in Virginia. None of our North Carolina Counties are in the watch area. The greatest threat will be damaging winds. The watch expires at 1000 PM EDT. A Flash Flood Watch will go into affect at 400 PM EDT today, and continue through 800 AM EDT Friday for our West Virginia counties and Tazewell County Virginia. Portions of this region will be susceptible to flash flooding where multiple heavy rain producing storms traverse over the same area in a short period of time. While most of the heaviest rain is expected to conclude by midnight, the watch will last through 800 AM Friday to account for any lingering heavy showers or storms that last into early Friday morning. Overnight, anticipate winds to increase from the west after midnight. These winds and lingering low level moisture will yield upslope low level cloud cover across the mountains with some carry over into the east. On Friday, much of the region will see a break in the precipitation activity through the morning hours. We cannot rule out isolated showers or storms across the west. By the afternoon, our next approaching disturbance, along with daytime heating, will help prompt additional shower and thunderstorm development. Coverage is not expected to be as great as that anticipated this evening. The best coverage will be in the west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to the upper 60s across the mountains and around 70 to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Highs tomorrow are forecast to be just slightly lower than those realized today. Readings around 80 to the mid 80s are forecast for the mountains with upper 80s to lower 90s across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... Frontal boundary will stay just north of us Friday night with spoke of upper energy moving east Friday evening. Timing of impulses is problematic but seems next best wave works toward the PA/OH border Saturday afternoon which may slowly nudge front southward. Appears best threat of showers and storms will be focused from far Southwest Virginia into SE WV and north of Highway 460 across Roanoke and Lynchburg north Saturday afternoon with widely scattered further south. Nonetheless kept pops no higher than 50. Temperatures stay elevated at night thanks to high pwats with lows from the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. Saturday should be at or just above typical late July values of lower to mid 80s west to around 90 east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1150 AM EDT Thursday... Belt of westerlies will be laying across the area Sunday night into Monday, with front situated across the mid-Atlantic. Afterward the upper flow takes on a more NW to SE orientation across our area as ridge builds over the Central Plains. The front weakens but convergence along it to remain through midweek. In addition, the upper pattern favors potential ridge runners, where convective clusters form over the upper midwest and shift southeast over our area. Overall, will keep threat of showers and storms in the forecast all periods but looks like Sunday-Monday have the better chance for measurable rainfall. May see slight nudge downward in temps early but overall humidity levels should stay the same, so no appreciable dry air expected thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail across most of the region. Isolated showers were beginning to develop across the mountains, with some locations bordering on scattered coverage. Thunderstorms have yet to develop, but anticipate no more than an hour or two until the first lightning strike. Coverage will increase from west to east across the region beginning around 20Z/4PM as a more organized band of showers and storms moves into the region. Conditions will trend to MVFR for ceilings and visibilities under the stronger cells. Overnight, look for cloud cover to increase across the area with most locations in the MVFR range with areas of IFR in across the mountains. Showers and storms will continue, especially in western and northern parts of the area. Visibilities will be a mix of MVFR and low end VFR with pockets of IFR under the heavier cells. Much of the activity will wane by sunrise Friday, with lingering showers in the west. MVFR ceiling and visibilities will last a few hours after sunrise. Extended aviation discussion... The area will remain in a relatively active period for showers and storms through Tuesday thanks to a persistent, nearly stationary frontal boundary across or near our region. Outside of the precipitation and during the daylight hours, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Within the heavier showers and storms, and during the overnight hours sub-VFR conditions are more likely. && .CLIMATE... Record warm minimum temperatures for July 28 Bluefield WV.....69 in 2010 Danville VA......76 in 1997 Lynchburg VA.....77 in 1930 Roanoke VA.......80 in 1930 Blacksburg VA....68 in 1987 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ007. NC...None. WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...DS CLIMATE...PM

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