Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 011909 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY... ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY (GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...RAB/WP EQUIPMENT...RAB

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