Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 011936 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 336 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AIRMASS ALOFT IS DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER WV LOOP...BUT EXPECT MOISTURE IN TN/KY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SW VA AND NW NC AREA BY EARLY EVENING. UNTIL THEN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST UNDER HAZY/SMOKY SUNSHINE WITH SOME CU. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON HOLDING THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER KY IN PLACE ENTERING THE MTNS THIS EVENING...THOUGH BULK OF HEAVIER CONVECTION TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE SMOKYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS INTO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW CHANCE INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN CWA. AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT THE UPPER IMPULSE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE NWD SHIFT IN SHOWERS. BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH THUNDER AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE THREAT IS LESS SO LOWERED POPS. FOR THURSDAY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FROM IL/WRN KY INTO SW VA/NW NC. ALL MODELS SHOWING A MORE CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO SVR THREAT IS LOW. WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER POPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV/MET WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA HAS BEEN GETTING ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THE HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER KENTUCKY AND OHIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVES...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND LINGERING INSTABILITIES...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST FRIDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR THICK CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEST AND 80F-85F EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL GENERATE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT...TRACKING MOST OF THEM ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER. WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE REGION GETS BACK INTO A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THEN MODERATE WARMER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... HAVE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE FAVORING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM BETWEEN LYH/DAN BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO EVEN ADD VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. TOWARD EVENING THERE IS A POTENTIAL CONVECTION NOW OVER TN/KY TO MOVE INTO BLF/TRI AREA...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 21Z...SO HAVE VCTS AT BLF. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING TONIGHT WITH MORE OF A SRN CWA TRACK...WHERE LYH/ROA MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE PREDOMINANT SHRA AT BLF/LWB/BCB LATE. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THINK THE FOG THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT IT MORE IFR/MVFR. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HEIGHTS RISE BUT THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...JM/WP

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