Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221336 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 936 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY... EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70 WEST. PREVIOUS AFD... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY... THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PC SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JH/PC

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