Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010020 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 820 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Our weather will remain unsettled through the end of the workweek as a weak cold front slowly moves in from the northwest and keeps showers and thunderstorms in our forecast into the weekend. The weekend also looks to be rather wet as more showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of another cold front that will move through the region Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 pm EDT Tuesday... Convection late this afternoon and early evening has been primarily confined to those parts of the region along and west of Interstate 77. A few isolated showers were also in parts of the Greenbrier Valley in West Virginia and also in the James River basin east of Lynchburg. As we head into the evening hours the loss of sunshine will take away the fuel that has been triggering the activity. Expect a general trend towards less coverage but within the same geographic region as the current coverage. The isolated showers in the James River basin should continue a southerly progression towards the VA/NC border. Have made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures and dew points to capture the latest observations and trends through the evening hours. The biggest adjustment will be in the southwest portion of the forecast where there is rain cooled air in some locations. As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Diurnal convective activity will gradually wind down this evening with an isolated renegade shower possibly stewing around through the overnight hours. The humid conditions will once again favor fog/stratus development tonight through early Wednesday morning...being particularly thick in locations that experience rain this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will be mild with generally low/mid 60s east to upper 50s/around 60 west. The pattern will not change significantly through midweek. The remnant circulation of Bonnie will continue to swirl along the Carolina coast with high pressure in a wedge-like configuration east of the Blue Ridge. This will result in diurnally forced convection through the period with orographic affects and differential heating boundaries serving as initiation and keeping the bulk of convective activity from the Ridge westward on Wednesday...though model trends are also wanting to rotate some convection into the piedmont and eastern Southside VA later in the day as well. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal with elevated dew points making for sticky conditions. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Weak ridging aloft will transition into zonal flow with the main storm track well to our north. This will prevent any major systems from moving through the region...however a weak frontal boundary will sag through the region by the end of the week. This will enhance our chances for diurnal convection and also increase the coverage of showers/thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday. As the boundary gets hung up just to our south waves will ripple along the baroclinic zone and may well make for a wash out of at least the latter portion of Saturday. Tempertures look to remain at or above normal with a slight cooling trend especially west of the Blue Ridge associated with the transit of the frontal boundary. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... A vigorous upper trof will dig through the Great Lakes region this weekend culminating in a closed low spinning over New England through the first part of next week. This will drive a surface low from the upper plains into New England and push a cold front through the region on Sunday night. This will generate widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front on Sunday and make for a soggy close to the weekend. Cooler air will then move in behind the front for the first part of next week along with improving conditions save for locations west of the Blue Ridge where upslope conditions in NW flow will keep a chance of showers in the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday... Little change expected in the weather pattern through the period...with a weak tropical low...remnants of Bonnie...persisting along the SC/NC coast...and a deep trough persisting in the Southern Plains. This leaves the region with weak east-southeast flow and the best convergence across the mountains of southwest VA and northwest NC. Look for a similar setup Wednesday. Showers/thunderstorms this evening have been confined to areas mainly west of I-77...and the activity is diminishing quickly and will continue to do so with the loss of daytime heating. Concern through the overnight hours will be for development of low clouds and fog...which seems likely based on easterly maritime flow and weak upslope. Fog/low clouds should be most problematic at KLWB/KBCB and potentially KLYH...as in previous mornings. A period of LIFR-VLIFR cigs/vsbys likely at KLWB/KBCB as was observed this morning. Otherwise...looking at mostly VFR cigs/vsbys through the TAF valid period. Scattered showers/thunderstorms should develop Winds will remain east-southeast 5-8kts through the period. Medium confidence in cigs and vsbys through the TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in wind spd/dir through the TAF valid period. Medium confidence in TSRA potential Wednesday afternoon. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Outside of early morning fog/low clouds and afternoon/evening convection should be VFR through the end of the week. Finally a stronger upper trough will kick what is left of Bonnie out to sea Thursday- Friday. Expect more widespread showers Thursday afternoon into Friday ahead of a cold front, making for periods of sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Saturday may be VFR behind this front and before moisture and lowering conditions return by Saturday night. Sunday looks to bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA with a strong cold front/upper trough.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...DS/MBS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...MBS/RAB/WP

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