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000
FXUS61 KRNK 191900
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak shortwave will move east across our region tonight into
Wednesday. Jose should track north, off the east coast tonight
through Tuesday, before sliding just east of New England on
Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will remain across our area this afternoon into
tonight. Our forecast area will remain under dry air aloft between
Hurricane Jose passing well offshore and the next upstream axis of
deeper moisture associated with a cluster of mid level shortwave
energy in the Midwest.

At 15Z, the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 36.5 N, 71.7 W. Jose was
moving toward the north near 7 mph and will turn to the northeast
tonight into Wednesday.  Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of
the Delmarva peninsula tonight, and pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday.

Any weak shallow convection this afternoon will diminish quickly
with loss of heating this evening. A weak surface cold front to the
northwest slowly edging east towards the mountains late tonight.
Low level moisture and light winds will result in patches of fog
especially in the valleys. Low temperatures tonight will range from
the the mid 50s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

Wednesday will feature another warm afternoon with high temperatures
from around 70 degrees in the northwest mountains to the mid
80s in the Piedmont. Shortwave will slide east across the area
and be enhanced by diurnal heating. The cap will weaken enough
to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 248 PM EDT Tuesday...

A rather quiet weather pattern with little change in the low
level/upper level features. Will be relying on daytime heating and
weak upper impulses, along with some weak low level convergence for
isolated to scattered showers/storms Thursday-Friday afternoons.

Will seem more like summer like pattern though not as hot, but temps
will still run 3 to 10 degrees above normal.

Lows will run from the mid to upper 50s mountains, to lower to mid
60s foothills/piedmont and Roanoke.

Highs mainly upper 70s/around 80 west, with mid 80s east.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Surface and upper ridge will be sandwiched between tropical systems
off the east coast and strong upper trough over the central/western
U.S. this period. Will see how Hurricane Maria evolves and tracks
northward off the east coast next week, depending on how Jose
moves/weakens and if the upper ridge pushes further off the mid-
Atlantic coast.

At present, models in decent agreement keeping us on the warm and
dry side. Highs and lows will continue to range about 3 to 8 degrees
above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

SCT to BKN MVFR clouds possible this afternoon into tonight.
A few showers may develop late in the afternoon, but none
should deter flight plans given isolated nature. The best
chances will occur across the higher terrain. A weak upper
disturbance approaches from the west this evening into tonight
which could bring more clouds and some showers and even an
isolated storm to far western sections tonight. The question is
whether the drier air in place will dry up convection. Some
clearing expected overnight leading to another round of
fog and stratus to develop late once any shallow convection
ends. Similar to recent morning expect fog to mix out by 14z
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon expect some scattered
MVFR/VFR convection to form with the best chances along and west
of the Blue Ridge mountains. Light winds tonight will become
west around 10 mph Wednesday afternoon.

Medium confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall persistence forecast to prevail for the rest of the
upcoming week into the weekend with strengthening high pressure
remaining in place between exiting Jose offshore and a weak
cold front approaching from the west. This should maintain good
flying weather outside of early morning fog/stratus through late
next week, with only isolated to scattered diurnal showers
possible Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon as upper
level energy slides across. Isolated MVFR convection is
possible Friday in the southwest mountains. Dry weather is
expected Saturday and Sunday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK