


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --026 FXUS61 KRNK 022358 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 758 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region Thursday with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no additional rain is forecast until next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Lingering shower/storm potential along and east of the Blue Ridge this evening...otherwise clearing with patchy fog. 2) Drier air infiltrates next 24 hours...less humid Thursday. An isolated shower or two are present on radar east of the Blue Ridge. They are small and unorganized, and will dissipate quickly. Moisture is quickly leaving the upper levels of the atmosphere, and with it the potential for active weather. Nothing to amend except for updating the temperature forecast to match the slightly warmer temps, perhaps caused by lingering low level moisture disallowing efficient radiative cooling. From the previous discussion... Surface cold has moved into eastern VA/NC. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing along and east of the front. Clearing has been taking place over our forecast area. Water Vapor imagery shows significant drying aloft. This should increase entrainment and limit CAPE for the remainder of the day. Can`t rule out a stray shower between now and sunset, but coverage should be isolated. The front drifts to the coast tonight...High pressure building into the forecast area from the northwest. Aside for some patchy fog tonight, little or no sensible weather is expected through Thursday. Any morning clouds and fog should mix into what should be a dry afternoon with dewpoints falling into the 50s to lower 60s...temperatures seasonably warm for July, but not oppressive.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: 1) Warm and mostly clear conditions into the weekend A surface high pressure system from the west will travel eastward into the Atlantic to provide mostly clear and calm conditions for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Dew points may be a little lighter on July 4, with values as low as the upper 50s along and west of the Blue Ridge, but these will recover into the 60s by the weekend. 500mb heights will build up as a large upper level ridge forms and stretches over the southwestern CONUS. Temperatures will increase with region wide highs into the 80s with the warmest values in the upper 80s in the Piedmont and Southside VA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Hot conditions return next week 2) Precipitation chances increase early next week This part of the forecast is a bit complicated as it is dependent on the actions of approaching systems. One is a storm disturbance off the Floridian coast which may make its way into the Carolinas and potentially offer a precipitation chance for the more southeastern counties. The current most likely path of this system keeps it along the Carolina coast so winds may change in direction (not so much magnitude) as a result of the system`s influence. The other system involves a long cold front connected by surface low pressure systems that approaches from the northwest. Model guidance is in disagreement on whether this front passes through or stalls and becomes stationary. The earliest the front will be in the Mid- Atlantic region will be by Monday and if it stalls in our vicinity, it could provide a boundary region for continual thunderstorm development. Another upper level ridge is set to take shape over the southeastern CONUS and with veering of winds there will be an increase in moisture and diurnal heating to provide afternoon convective thunderstorms. However, if the front moves through, there is an opportunity for relatively cooler and drier air to enter and the time frame for showers narrows down. Confidence in the forecast will increase as we approach the weekend. As previously mentioned, if the front stalls or never goes through, expect temperatures to be hot next week, especially for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge. Surface high temperatures may get into the mid-90s for this part of the area while areas along and east of the Blue Ridge may get into the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions and calm winds, generally out of the west or northwest. Trapped moisture in the boundary layer could bring fog in the morning before it is mixed out by diurnal heating. Mostly clear for the remainder of Thursday, with more light northwesterly winds. No active weather or storms to speak of in this period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog through this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM/VFJ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...PM/VFJ