Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 240749 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY... DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT. TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 134 AM EDT FRIDAY... VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LWB MAY DROP TO 2SM BY MORNING WITH FOG SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN SKY COVER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE SOME AC/SC IN THE MTNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES TAF WISE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...PH/NF AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP

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