Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 291937 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 337 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY... UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL BE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO OHIO. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTH. IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE SAME LOCATION HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN PUTTING IN LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 07/3AM THROUGH NOON/17Z SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD IN MORE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR THE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE THAN SIMPLY DIURNALLY BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL GAIN INCREASED JET DYNAMICS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY IN THE KBLF TAF WHERE STORMS WERE DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS IN UNTIL 03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SPC HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER 01Z/9PM THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEFT. BEST PROBABILITY THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER WILL IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH 03Z/11PM. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY...AND CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AND PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. MAY SEE ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS TO BE VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/JH

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