Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 110002 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 702 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region to start the work week. However, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes region will push another surge of very cold air into the region on Tuesday with blustery conditions and snow showers in the mountains.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 655 PM EST Sunday... No changes to the forecast at this time. Generally quiet weather expected through Monday. A short wave will bring some clouds and blustery conditions to the mountains and maybe a flurry near the Greenbrier valley of WV overnight into tomorrow. Clouds will dissipate Monday morning and temperatures will warm up a bit but stay below normal. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 20s, with highs Monday in the mid/upper 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Northern stream will dominate forecast for mid-week with jet stream providing a surge of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday. Upper level disturbance associated with the onset of cold air advection will produce snow showers over the mountains. Again the main track of the surface low and upper vort will tend to take best lift northwest of our forecast area but enough west/northwest upslope to bring a couple inches to the mountains of Greenbrier with an inch or less as far south as the NC High Country though again track favors less south of the WV/VA border. Flurries could reach as far east as the Blue ridge, especially heading into Tuesday night as a shot of some very cold pours across the Great Lakes resulting in a plethora of downstream low level moisture which will get lifted over the central Appalachians. Temperatures will take a plunge Tuesday and Tuesday night as surge of cold air will send lows Tuesday night into the teens areawide, complimented by 850MB temps of -14 to -16C. There is potential for wind chill values to reach zero to minus 5 in the he mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 340 PM EST Sunday... Upper air pattern is forecast to remain amplified with a cold upper level trough over eastern North America through Friday. Embedded short waves passing through the general flow pattern will result in clouds and potential for mountain snow showers and flurries. Temperatures will favor the colder side of normal from until Friday...trending back closer to normal for the weekend as the upper flow becomes more zonal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 700 PM EST Sunday... Generally expecting VFR conditions this TAF period east of the Blue Ridge. However, a short wave passing through the region before 09Z/4AM will bring some upslope clouds and a period of MVFR conditions west of the Appalachians overnight. Do not expect anything more than a flurry or two north of KBLF or KLWB. Any clouds west of the Blue Ridge will dissipate early Monday morning with VFR conditions all sites for the rest of the day. The short wave will amplify low level winds overnight with some gusty conditions becoming established west of the Blue Ridge tonight. Gusts up to 30 knots are possible at higher elevations. The wind will diminish Monday afternoon. Medium confidence on the extent of cloud cover at KLWB and KBLF overnight. Bufkit shows a shallow layer of moisture and the NAM suggests ceilings of 1500-2500 feet are possible at KBLF. Extended Discussion... This pattern of northwest flow aloft will persist through the period. The more prominent clipper moves in Tuesday with gusty winds behind it and more extensive snow showers. Expect sub-VFR into the mountains late Monday night-Tuesday night, then weak high pressure builds in Wednesday followed by another weaker clipper Thursday. Overall mainly VFR during the Wed-Thu time frame.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/MBS

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