Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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499 FXUS61 KRNK 110453 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1153 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1140 PM EST TUESDAY... ONE MORE STREAMWISE VORT MOVING ACROSS NE TN/WRN NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER SW VA INTO SE WV...BUT EXPECT NO MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL IN THE WRN SLOPES OF SE WV...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE MTNS OF SW VA...I.E. MOUNTAIN LAKE...BURKES GARDEN. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AND STRONG AT LEAST IN THE MTNS OF NC WITH STRONG CAA ALLOWING GAP WIND FLOW PERFECT FOR THESE WINDS TO ENHANCE AT GEV. EARLIER THIS EVENING THEY GUSTED TO 59 MPH. OVERALL...THE LOW LVL WINDS TAKE A WEAKER TURN BUT STILL STAY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AS THE UPPER VORT PASSES AND A GOOD SHOT OFSUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. THESE WINDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE WSW AND GRAPHICS. HEADLINES STILL ACTIVE AND NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION... OVERALL...SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED OVER THE WEST...BUT WITH ANOTHER STREAMWISE VORT TO PUSH NEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER WRN SLOPE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OVER WRN GREENBRIER TO FLATTOP WV...MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES IN NW GREENBRIER. FLURRIES WILL BE MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND AT TIMES AT/NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NC MTNS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ANOTHER SUBSIDENCE BAND BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MOVES BY 12Z THU. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10F-20F. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SHUTTING DOWN WINDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S WEST TO 30S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY... 00Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE THIS FEATURE CROSSING THE INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BACK IN FULL SWING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DEPTH OF MOISTURE BECOMES TOO SHALLOW...AND WINDS TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES LIQUID ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS...THIS STILL HAS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PLAN ON GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES MAY BE MARGINALLY TOO WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MODELS BRINGING SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO THE -18 TO -22 RANGE BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL MEAN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. GFS PRESSURE RISES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY THE VERY DEEP POLAR LONG WAVE TROF MOVES NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN WEAK 500 MB RIDGING. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WAS STILL QUITE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH FAVOR A SURFACE LOW IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOKING MORE LIKE A POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS TIME. TIMING IN THE MODELS WAS ALSO CHANGING...SLOWER THAN PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. WHENEVER THE STORM SYSTEM DOES GO THROUGH...LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON ISENTROPIC LEVELS AS DOES THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF WINTER STORM THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1140 PM EST WEDNESDAY... MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB EARLY ON WILL START TO GET TO VFR BY 12-15Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. NOT PUTTING ANY VSBY ISSUES AT THIS TIME..THINKING THE BEST SNOW SHOWERS MAY PUSH ACROSS BLF BETWEEN 05-06Z. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA THROUGH 15Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PARAMETERS...BUT LOWER EARLY IN BLF/LWB PER SNOW SHOWER THREAT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF US FRIDAY AND MAY THROW SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...THEN NW FLOW BEHIND THIS IS GOING TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO BLF/LWB INTO SAT MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR EXPECTED REGION WIDE. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA WINTRY PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE. STAY TUNED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007- 009>020-022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007- 009>012-015-019-020. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002- 018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044- 507-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044- 507. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JM/RCS/WP

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