-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
215
FXUS61 KRNK 111456
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1056 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the region today bringing another
round of showers during the afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds in behind the front tonight and dry weather will
continue through Monday. The next storm system arrives on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1045 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Adjusted timing of precipitation this afternoon


The short wave was over Michigan and was generating a band of
shower and thunderstorms over central and eastern Ohio. Have
adjusted the timing of the precipitation to reach southeast West
Virginia between 18-19Z/2-3PM.

The last of the fog and stratus from early this morning had
dissipated per satellite images and stratocumulus was beginning
to develop. Raised maximum temperatures is a few locations, but
overall change in temperature forecast was minor.


Previous Discussion
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Mostly clear this morning with weak high pressure in place.
A few mountain upslope clouds remain with weak northwest flow
behind a departing upper wave moving east into the Atlantic.

Generally clear skies through the morning, outside of some
patchy areas of fog expected by daybreak. Clouds increase by
midday in advance of the approaching front dropping southeast
from the Ohio Valley. Best chance for rain will be between 4PM
and 8PM today. The front quickly departs east tonight and will
have gradual clearing, but a few upslope showers will remain
for southeast West Virginia through early Sunday.

Winds gusty again by this afternoon with winds from the west
gusting into the 20mph range at times. Temperatures remain cool
with lows this morning in the mid/low 40s. Highs today
generally in the low to mid 60s in the mountains, low 70s in the
east. Chilly again overnight in the upper/mid 40s
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Dry weather Sunday and Monday.
3. Cooler Sunday, warming trend to start the work week.

By the end of the weekend, a 500mb low will be positioned over the
northern Mid Atlantic and New England, with broad northwesterly flow
aloft over the central Appalachians. A cold front will be to the
east and along the eastern US seaboard. Behind this front, high
pressure will settle overhead, bringing an end to any lingering
upslope rain showers in the western mountains. Cooler air will also
follow behind the front, bringing temperatures a few degrees below
normal. Low temperatures Monday morning have a 40-50% probability of
being below 40 degrees in the higher elevations of southeast West
Virginia and the other typically cold spots in the area, like Burkes
Garden and Mount Rogers, VA. Subsidence from the surface high and
500mb ridging will also keep the weather dry for Sunday and Monday,
and temperatures will start a general warming trend by the beginning
of the work week.

By the start of the week, an upper trough will deepen over the
central US, tracking eastward with an associated surface frontal
system stretching across most of the US. The high pressure that will
have been overhead providing the initial dry weather will shift
offshore, and generally southerly flow will bring in warmer
air, as well as plentiful moisture from the Atlantic and the
Gulf, with precipitable water values reaching the 90th
percentile relative to climatology by late Tuesday. Abundant
moisture will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday and into Wednesday. Although there is still
some uncertainty in the exact timing of the front and start of
precipitation for the area, could see rain showers beginning as
early as Tuesday morning for the southern Blue Ridge and
northwest NC, coverage expanding over the rest of the forecast
area by later in the day Tuesday. Location of the heaviest
rainfall will depend on the exact track of the surface low,
which at this time looks to go right over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Friday, after a
mostly dry Thursday.
2. Near normal temperatures through the period.

By the middle of the week, the upper level flow over the area will
still be southwesterly, ahead of a 500mb trough. Showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue through much of Wednesday as a
front continues to move across the region. Brief ridging builds in
behind the front in response to another trough deepening over the
central US, which will keep Thursday dry for most, although
northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface may keep upslope showers
lingering in the mountains, but even those should come to an end by
later Thursday as surface high pressure settles back overhead. With
the surface high in the region, expecting Thursday to be one of the
warmer days of the work week. As the surface low and cold front
approach the area from the west by Friday, bringing an increase and
shower and thunderstorm chances for the end of the work week. At
this time, the greater moisture looks to be farther south over the
Gulf Coast states, which would limit the storm coverage over the
southern Mid Atlantic and Appalachians. However, with varying
deterministic model solutions that far in the forecast period,
plenty of uncertainty is present in exact details and impacts of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

Valley fog this morning, mainly across West Virginia. LWB
remains LIFR and will likely remain that way through at least
1230z. Clouds increase by early afternoon and a few rain
showers with an associated front will cross through this
afternoon/evening. Clouds clear tonight again and VFR is
expected to continue.

Winds today from the west, gusting to 20mph range at times.
Should begin to subside after sunset as high pressure builds in.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday under dry, high
pressure.

Precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to
the region on Tuesday and Wednesday due to a low pressure
system approaching from the central United States.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AB/BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG