Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241829 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 129 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AND COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FROM BLUEFIELD TO LYNCHBURG.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF NOON EST SATURDAY... SURFACE LOW...992 MB...NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS. MAIN CONCERN IS COMBINATION OF WIND OVER AREAS WHERE ICE REMAINS IN THE TREES. WIND AND RESIDUAL ICING MAY BE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN PER POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAZARD. SOME MELTING OF THE ICE HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE NEAR 40 SO NO PROBLEMS THERE. FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WEST VIRGINIA...THIS AREA HAS NOT BEEN AS FORTUNATE. LOTS OF ICING REPORTS WITH 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE STILL CLINGING TO THE TREES. THE SUN IS EXPECTED TO POP OUT AS SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE FALLING DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL DRAG THE WETBULB TEMPERATURE BELOW 32 AND CEASE THE MELTING. AS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP. DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WITHIN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE RAIN...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW PER LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL AND FALLING DEWPOINTS. SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE EASTWARD AS SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNWARD DRYING TAKES PLACE. WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY TEST 30-35 MPH...BUT AS A GENERAL RULE LOOKING AT NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET...RANGING FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR WESTERN SLOPES WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...MOUNT ROGERS IN VA...AND THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY... THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT SUNDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THEREFORE P-TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN. THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN QUESTION AS WILL THE P- TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. 00Z MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HWY 460 IN THE PIEDMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY IS A TOUGH CALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OF GREENBRIER AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MONDAY/S SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA COAST AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...OR AT LEAST A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE...TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR LEFT-OVER FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. ALSO LEFT BEHIND THE FIRST WILL BE DRIER AIR THAT THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVER COME TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 100 PM EST SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING MVFR CIGS VCNTY OF BLF/LWB. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT IFR CIGS MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KBLF TONIGHT...BUT OPTED FOR A HIGHER CLOUD BASE ATTM SINCE NOT CONFIDENT THIS SORT OF CEILING WILL PERSIST PER BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST CONUS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING...ESP NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL STORM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...AND MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR KROA...WHICH RESIDES AT THE BASE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE AIR WILL BE MOST TURBULENT. FOR SUNDAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO MID WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE GETS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OCNL IFR DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE MVFR CIGS WILL SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. ATTM THINK CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN...WITH A HIGHER CLOUD BASE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OCNL MVFR CIGS TO PENETRATE AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY AND COLD AIR TUESDAY. MIXED PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL CLIPPER ON MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY...ANY PTYPE SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY PROVIDE A DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER PROMOTING REGION-WIDE VFR.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PM

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