Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 020153 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 953 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 655 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... FOR THIS EVENING...HAVE TONED DOWN THE EXPANSE OF THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 IN VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. FOR NORTH CAROLINA...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESSION EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE I-64 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 800 PM AND 1000 PM. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE...BUT HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AIRMASS ALOFT IS DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER WV LOOP...BUT EXPECT MOISTURE IN TN/KY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SW VA AND NW NC AREA BY EARLY EVENING. UNTIL THEN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST UNDER HAZY/SMOKY SUNSHINE WITH SOME CU. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON HOLDING THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER KY IN PLACE ENTERING THE MTNS THIS EVENING...THOUGH BULK OF HEAVIER CONVECTION TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE SMOKYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS INTO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW CHANCE INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN CWA. AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT THE UPPER IMPULSE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE NWD SHIFT IN SHOWERS. BY THIS TIME SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH THUNDER AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE THREAT IS LESS SO LOWERED POPS. FOR THURSDAY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FROM IL/WRN KY INTO SW VA/NW NC. ALL MODELS SHOWING A MORE CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO SVR THREAT IS LOW. WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER POPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV/MET WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA HAS BEEN GETTING ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THE HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER KENTUCKY AND OHIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVES...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND LINGERING INSTABILITIES...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST FRIDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR THICK CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEST AND 80F-85F EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL GENERATE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT...TRACKING MOST OF THEM ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER. WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE REGION GETS BACK INTO A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THEN MODERATE WARMER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 935 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO HAZY CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS... POTENTIALLY WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF KBLF FROM THE WEST AROUND 02/06Z. SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS. WITH CLOUD COVER WIDESPREAD...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR/HZ. THE EXCEPTION IS KBLF...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARBY TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERHEAD. AT THIS POINT...TIMING OF THE IMPULSES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADDED AT LEAST VCTS FOR TAFS THEREAFTER. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...NF/WP

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