Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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740 FXUS61 KRNK 130859 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 359 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 304 AM EST SATURDAY... LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THE MORNING. MAIN SHORTWAVE IS STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIENTED FROM THE LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER STREAMERS INTO THE MTNS THROUGH MIDDAY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC MTNS...BUT EXPECT THE ARCTIC AIR TO DRY IT OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE SE WV TIL EARLY EVENING. AMOUNTS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS..WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE NW SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW WHICH ENTAILS THE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER 10 AM...WHEN BEST PRESSURE RISES AND CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXITS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVING WIND CHILL BELOW ZERO TO -15F TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD AS HIGHLIGHTED BUT THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW WITH RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS TODAY WHILE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE CLEARS OUT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S DOWN EAST...TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WESTERN SLOPES. A 1035 HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAWN SUNDAY. THIS LESSENS THE WINDS OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. THE MODELS ARE HOWEVER ADVERTISING SOME MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS POURING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE. NONETHELESS SHOULD SEE CLOSE TO OR RECORD COLD LOWS...RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE WRN SLOPES OF SE WV TO NW NC...TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE REST OF THE MTNS...AND AROUND 10 TO 12 IN THE EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F- 15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY... EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1215 AM EST SATURDAY... MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO OCCASION IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO MAINLY IMPACT BLF/LWB EARLY POSSIBLY ENTERING BCB/ROA...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLATED HERE. THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF NW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TYPICAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL OCCUR AT ROA/BCB. WINDS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SOME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LESSEN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH EVERYONE GOING VFR THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CLIMATE... COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14. SATURDAY 02/13/2016 SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR KBLF 4 1988 19 1988 KDAN 11 1955 32 1981 KLYH 5 1979 9 1899 KROA 8 1917 18 1914 KRNK -4 1969 14 1955 SUNDAY 02/14/2016 SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR KBLF 5 1971 16 1960 KDAN 15 1986 32 1986 KLYH 4 1899 24 1905 KROA 10 1943 26 1986 KRNK -2 1969 24 1986 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007- 009-015. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001- 018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042- 043-508. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PM/WP CLIMATE...CF

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