Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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685 FXUS61 KRNK 191801 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 101 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overhead this morning shifts east to the coast tonight as a warm front lifts north from the Gulf Coast states into the southern Appalachians. The warm will swing north across Virginia and into the mid-Atlantic Friday, before stalling. Another storm system moving across the southern U.S. will impact our region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 934 AM EST Thursday... Shaped cloud cover for this morning with latest satellite images and trended towards Conshort for late morning into this afternoon. Adjusted temperatures for this morning with latest surface obs and trends, then blended late morning temperatures with GLAMP into this afternoon. It is going to be a nice January day with high temperatures from around 50 degrees in the mountains to the lower 60s along the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Moisture slowly returns tonight as warm front lifts northward. Will make additional changes later this morning. As oF 230 AM EST Thursday... Amplified 5h ridge over us today will give way to upper low/trough moving across the midwest tonight. Will see a period of warm advection high clouds today with increasing mid clouds starting to roll into the southwest by dusk. We will be staying warmer than normal again today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Sunshine will be in and out, and expect to see more sunshine east of the mountains. Isentropic lift increases after sunset across the mountains of NC and shift to the rest of the forecast area overnight. Models advertise more rain in the mountains with lower threat in the piedmont. Clouds will overspread the area. Will see the warm front stay southwest of us into early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts overall will be under a quarter inch with locally higher in the mountains of NC to Southeast WV. Lower dewpoints in the evening combined with increasing moisture allows for temperature drop once the rain starts to fall, but since more clouds and some steady rains, lows should stay mild for this time of year with upper 30s in the Alleghanys/Greenbrier Valley to upper 40s Mountain Empire. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Thursday... During the day Friday a broad area of isentropic lift progresses northeast through the region on the eastern side of a Upper Mississippi Valley low, and on the west side of an upper level shortwave ridge that will be positioned over the mid-Atlantic region. By sunrise Friday, the bulk of the precipitation will be oriented northwest to southeast across the central portions of the region, heading northeast. Anticipate most of the precipitation to have moved northeast of the region by the early to mid afternoon. Friday night into early Saturday, another 500mb shortwave ridge briefly takes up residency across the area, all while the 850mb flow remains southwest, tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture. We expect a break in the precipitation Friday evening into part of the overnight hours Friday nights. Models differ on just how quickly the next wave of precipitation enters the southern half of the region. A consensus forecast allow for a slight chance by day break Saturday across our North Carolina counties, and perhaps one tier north of Virginia counties. As Saturday progresses, a shortwave trough within the prevailing southwest flow is progged to move toward the region and cross late Saturday night and Sunday. Surface based lifted index values vary from model to model during the Saturday through Sunday period. Some have readings right around zero through the region, others are slightly negative. Given this will favor showers as compared to stratiform rain for Saturday. Will introduce isolated thunderstorms across the far southern and southeastern sections of the area Sunday afternoon. This corresponds the good agreement of guidance for slightly negative LI values in this area along with some small amount of surface based CAPE. There is also good spacial agreement with neighboring offices to the south for its inclusion into the forecast. This wave moves north of the area by early Sunday evening. While there may be a small break in the activity, it will be short lived. Precipitation on the eastern and northern flank of the parent closed upper low is expected to traverse the region Sunday night. Temperatures will continue to be very mild during this portion of the forecast, averaging some fifteen to twenty degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Wednesday... Guidance remains generally consistent with the big picture details into the first part of next week with some variation in the finer details. A large vertically stacked closed low will move across the deep south and bring a strong and very moist flow of air to the region. Several spokes of energy rotating around the low will bring several surges of precipitation to the region Monday before the system starts to pull away from the area by Monday night. So while the main baroclinic zone is now expected to be much closer to the coast, the overall scenario still favors widespread precipitation with significant orographic enhancement along the Blue Ridge. Will continue to keep a close eye on how this situation evolves as the indicated QPF amounts generally in the 1 to 3 inch range by Monday night may result in some flooding. Instability to drive thunder will likely reside closer to the baroclinic zone, though with enough forcing under the cold core upper low some thunder is possible but confidence not high enough at this point to include in the forecast. Will keep ptype as all liquid though dynamic cooling under the deep upper low may generate thickness values favorable for some wintry mix, but confidence in this is low. Some wrap around precipitation will linger west of the Blue Ridge through Tuesday before we can get a brief break ahead of the next system approaching later Wednesday night. Temperatures will trend down through Tuesday as the cold core low moves over the region, though readings will still remain above normal through the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 101 PM EST Thursday... Low clouds eroded out of the Greenbrier valley this afternoon, returning KLWB to VFR conditions. Under Mid and High clouds VFR conditions will continue into this evening. As the high pressure center shifts east tonight, a warm front will lift north in the the southern Appalachians. As moisture increases ceilings will lower from the Southwest tonight into Friday morning. Looking at rain moving into BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA in the 08-12z time frame with MVFR cigs. Heavier bands of rain could produce IFR conditions. Rain will spread east across the region Friday with MVFR ceilings and local IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds,fog and rain. Medium confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Rain moves out Friday afternoon with some improvement expected briefly but next system will bring more lower cigs in Saturday into Sunday with rain. This continues into Monday with poor flying conditions expected across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Gusty northwest winds and mountain MVFR showers are expected for Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...KK/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.