Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270739 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 339 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moving out of the Mississippi valley will keep warm temperatures and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in our forecast through Tuesday. A large area of high pressure will wedge down the east side of the Appalachians behind the low and bring much cooler temperatures with some drizzle for the middle of the workweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 335 AM EDT Monday... The backdoor front situated from near EKN-FVX should lift back north as a warm front today. Showers will be mainly isolated to scattered mainly this morning, with best coverage in the piedmont thru 12z. A little fog and lower clouds out there as well this morning thanks to the showers/wet ground and east/southeast wind. Should see any fog dissipate after 9am. Will see a lull in the coverage between 12-18z, then should start to see uptick in showers and some thunderstorms after 18z as upper shortwave and sfc low moving toward the lower Ohio and mid MS valleys. Our area will be in southwest flow in the low and mid levels, however, best lift stays along and west of the Appalachians. There is some better low level convergence closer to the southern Blue Ridge so may see better coverage here this afternoon. Temperatures will be affected by cloud cover, but just enough sun should send readings into the 70s, except 60s in the higher elevations. Tonight, the sfc low and front move to the Central Appalachians, with the 00z GFS slightly faster than the 00z ECMWF, in terms of rainfall coverage. The 00z NAM showed more agreement to the GFS. Both of these models enhance lift across the Blue Ridge into the foothills after midnight, with frontal convection moving into KY/WV. There is a minimum of rain depicted by these models along/west of the Blue Ride into the New River Valley and far southwest VA. Think coverage is enough for any light QPF to have higher pops toward the mountains, with low likelys near the southern Blue Ridge from Buffalo Mountain to Boone, and in the far western areas from Chilhowie to McRoss WV. Am a little skeptical in the far eastern CWA and kept pops here in the 40 percent range. As far as any strong or severe storms, not expecting any as main dynamics and energy stay west of the Appalachians over the Ohio/TN valleys and mid MS Valley today into this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 AM EDT Monday... A shallow upper level trof will drive a weak surface low along a frontal boundary through the region on Tuesday. This will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region, especially through the first part of the day. Guidance indicates that there will be enough instability with modestly steep mid/upper level lapse rates to support some thunderstorms, but best shear is out of phase with instability and does not arrive until dynamic forcing is pushing off to the east. It is possible that there may be a window for parameters to come together to support development of some strong storms mainly east of the Blue Ridge as indicated by SPC day 2 marginal risk, but all in all the set up is not very impressive. After the frontal boundary pushes to our east, a large area of high pressure will move out of central Canada and wedge strongly down the east side of the mountains. This will cool our temperatures down considerably but some warm readings will still be found along the western and southern periphery of the wedge. There will also be a layer of shallow moisture in the wedge that looks to keep a good amount of clouds and some sprinkles/drizzle around Wednesday and Wednesday night mainly along and just east of the Blue Ridge. By Thursday the axis of the upper ridge will move to our east and allow an opening closed low to approach from the west. This will bring an increasing chance of showers to the region as we go through Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures will start the period well above normal with low/mid 70s east of the Ridge and mid 60s/around 70 to the west, but once the wedge becomes fully established temperatures on Thursday look to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with many locations remaining in the low to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... On Friday, showers will be likely across most of the region with isolated thunderstorm possible across the western and southern parts of the area. The main system will track north of the area Friday night into Saturday, with its associated cold front across our region early Friday night. Look for an end of the shower activity for much of the area by Saturday morning. Lingering upslope showers on the backside of the system will be possible across southeast West Virginia and neighboring counties of southwest Virginia. Saturday night into Sunday, an upper level ridge will build over the area, allowing for a gradual decrease in the upslope showers in the west, and limited cloud cover in the east. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be around or slightly above normal Friday, but trend to readings about ten degrees above normal for Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 119 AM EDT Monday... There is a backdoor boundary situated from eastern WV north of LWB to FVX and this has allowed for some low level clouds in the IFR range to move as far south as ROA/LYH. At the same time, isolated to scattered showers continue to move northeast with best coverage approaching DAN/BLF/LWB as of 0515z. Satellite and high-res models favor a mix of VFR to IFR cigs and at times vsbys this morning. Usually a backdoor front will not retreat back to the north at night, and should keep places like ROA/LYH stuck in the IFR or lower cigs through at least 10-13z. Given the scattered/isolated nature to showers there will be some tempo groups in for these through 12z, then as we head into Monday the flow should increase out of the southwest taking the warm front north and seeing all sites go to VFR cigs. Appears next threat of showers and isolated storms will arrive late this afternoon but should be isolated with best chance in the mountains near BLF. Better threat overnight, with one wave moving toward DAN but this after this taf period. Still looking at VFR through Monday evening. Extended Aviation Discussion... Front moves into the mountains after 12z Tuesday with best threat of showers/some thunder and sub-VFR in the 09z-18z Tuesday time frame. Cold front exits the piedmont by 00z Wednesday with lingering sub-VFR cigs in BLF/LWB with VFR east. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday into Thursday with next storm system moving into the MS Valley. A threat for sub-VFR cigs appears likely as the high wedges southwest Wed night-Thursday for most sites. Better chance of rain Thursday night into Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AL/WP

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