Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 161359
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
959 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry over the weekend with a stronger front arriving Sunday with
colder air ushering in to start the new workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 950 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Stratus clearing this morning giving way to sunny skies.
No significant changes with the forecast this morning. Skies
were still cloudy in pockets of stratus over our western
mountains, and also east and south of Danville. Temperatures
should be quite warm again today, reaching the upper 50s to mid
60s for the mountains, and the upper 60s to low 70s for the
Piedmont. Did lower dew points based on current readings and MOS
guidance, yielding slightly lower RH values for this afternoon,
generally in the 25 to 35% range, but slightly higher over NC.
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1. Dry Saturday with still above average temperatures.
Area of light precip along the cold front has exited stage east
and now have some upslope cold advection stratocu persisting in
the mountains. This should scatter/mix out by mid morning and
allow for a pleasant start to the weekend under mostly clear
skies and temps across much of the area still making it into the
60s (near 70 in the Piedmont) as we stay in largely zonal flow
aloft. Another disturbance and tightening pressure gradient will
approach the area later tonight which should mainly increase
some mid level cloud cover and enhance west winds. Not expecting
any precip with this feature.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Cloudy and mild Sunday
2. Blustery Monday
3. Limited amounts and coverage of rain/snow showers for SE WV.
A west wind will already be established when a weak cold front
crosses the region Sunday. For the majority of the area, mostly
cloudy skies will linger into Monday. Western slopes could see
some light rain/sprinkles Sunday afternoon and evening. This
precipitation will change over to snow showers/flurries as a
second front brings in colder air Sunday night. An upper level
trough will pivot over the region on Monday and bring a better
chance for snow to western slopes Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
With limited moisture, western Greenbrier could see a half of
an inch, at the most and inch of snow in this 24 hour timeframe.
Temperatures will remain mild Sunday with highs from the mid
50s to lower 60s across the mountains to mid 60s to lower 70s
east of the Blue Ridge. Following the second front, Monday`s
high temperatures will run about 10F colder than normal with mid
30s to lower 40s across the mountains and upper 40s to mid 50s
east. Good news is that in March, cold spells do not linger for
long. On Tuesday, temperatures moderate back close to normal
levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry through Thursday.
2. Turning much wetter Friday.
3. Trending milder through the period.
High pressure will wedge into the region Wednesday and
Thursday. A low pressure system will track along the southern
states bringing rain to the area Friday and Friday night. If the
low`s track stays south across the southeastern states on
Saturday, the wedge will keep the area shielded from any heavy
rain/convection. If the low is further north and erodes the
wedge, convection and heavy rain is likely, especially along the
NC/VA border.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected
to trend milder through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 945 AM EDT Saturday...
MVFR stratus over the southern Blue Ridge as well as other parts
of the area will continue to scatter out this morning. Expect
passing cirrus but mostly SKC after that happens. Some alto
cloud coverage could come into the area this evening/overnight
along with some increasing winds ahead of a front. Winds should
be under 10 kts from the NW to west for the mountain sites and
SW for the Piedmont sites.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is medium to high.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
There could be a brief period of MVFR cigs for some sites mainly
Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through
much of this period, except sub-VFR cigs in the mountains behind
a front Sunday night into Tuesday with possible snow showers.
Gusty northwest winds will also be strong at times Sun night-
Tuesday.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...SH/AB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/VFJ/AB