Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161359 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 959 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry over the weekend with a stronger front arriving Sunday with colder air ushering in to start the new workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 950 AM EDT Saturday... 1. Stratus clearing this morning giving way to sunny skies. No significant changes with the forecast this morning. Skies were still cloudy in pockets of stratus over our western mountains, and also east and south of Danville. Temperatures should be quite warm again today, reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s for the mountains, and the upper 60s to low 70s for the Piedmont. Did lower dew points based on current readings and MOS guidance, yielding slightly lower RH values for this afternoon, generally in the 25 to 35% range, but slightly higher over NC. As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1. Dry Saturday with still above average temperatures. Area of light precip along the cold front has exited stage east and now have some upslope cold advection stratocu persisting in the mountains. This should scatter/mix out by mid morning and allow for a pleasant start to the weekend under mostly clear skies and temps across much of the area still making it into the 60s (near 70 in the Piedmont) as we stay in largely zonal flow aloft. Another disturbance and tightening pressure gradient will approach the area later tonight which should mainly increase some mid level cloud cover and enhance west winds. Not expecting any precip with this feature.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Cloudy and mild Sunday 2. Blustery Monday 3. Limited amounts and coverage of rain/snow showers for SE WV. A west wind will already be established when a weak cold front crosses the region Sunday. For the majority of the area, mostly cloudy skies will linger into Monday. Western slopes could see some light rain/sprinkles Sunday afternoon and evening. This precipitation will change over to snow showers/flurries as a second front brings in colder air Sunday night. An upper level trough will pivot over the region on Monday and bring a better chance for snow to western slopes Monday afternoon into Tuesday. With limited moisture, western Greenbrier could see a half of an inch, at the most and inch of snow in this 24 hour timeframe. Temperatures will remain mild Sunday with highs from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the mountains to mid 60s to lower 70s east of the Blue Ridge. Following the second front, Monday`s high temperatures will run about 10F colder than normal with mid 30s to lower 40s across the mountains and upper 40s to mid 50s east. Good news is that in March, cold spells do not linger for long. On Tuesday, temperatures moderate back close to normal levels. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Dry through Thursday. 2. Turning much wetter Friday. 3. Trending milder through the period. High pressure will wedge into the region Wednesday and Thursday. A low pressure system will track along the southern states bringing rain to the area Friday and Friday night. If the low`s track stays south across the southeastern states on Saturday, the wedge will keep the area shielded from any heavy rain/convection. If the low is further north and erodes the wedge, convection and heavy rain is likely, especially along the NC/VA border. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to trend milder through the period. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 945 AM EDT Saturday... MVFR stratus over the southern Blue Ridge as well as other parts of the area will continue to scatter out this morning. Expect passing cirrus but mostly SKC after that happens. Some alto cloud coverage could come into the area this evening/overnight along with some increasing winds ahead of a front. Winds should be under 10 kts from the NW to west for the mountain sites and SW for the Piedmont sites. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is medium to high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... There could be a brief period of MVFR cigs for some sites mainly Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through much of this period, except sub-VFR cigs in the mountains behind a front Sunday night into Tuesday with possible snow showers. Gusty northwest winds will also be strong at times Sun night- Tuesday. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...SH/AB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...SH/VFJ/AB

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