Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 182342 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 642 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move north into the southeast tonight into Monday bringing another shot of rain to the area. Afterwards, a strong ridge will set up off the southeast coast providing much above normal temperatures through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 635 PM EST Sunday... An adjustment for our forecast tonight will be a slowing of the onset time of precipitation reaching the southwest portion of the area. Latest guidance is offering solutions averaging about three hours later than our current forecast advertises. Given fairly consistent trends within the models, our forecast will be adjusted accordingly. Measurable rain now looks more probable to start across parts of the Mountain Empire region of southwest Virginia and the Northern Mountains of North Carolina by 100 AM to 200 AM Monday, but then spread quickly northeast across the forecast region. As of 300 PM EST Sunday... High pressure will move east across the region this evening into tonight. Warm frontal boundary draped over the deep south advances northward tonight as southwest flow increases. Isentropic lift overrunning this boundary should serve to bring a some rain to the area overnight. Temperature profiles stay above freezing and not expecting any ptype issues in our forecast area. The rain will be hindered by the drier air in place. However, the rain will slowly advance northeast overnight into Monday. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the north to the lower 40s along the far west ridges and the North Carolina foothills and piedmont. The warm frontal boundary will make a slow advance northeast Monday. Pockets of rain will continue into early Monday afternoon. Cloud cover will play a key role in the temperatures forecast. 850 mb temperatures are rising despite the fact that clouds are lingering. Kept the highest pops in the morning, then taper back chances during Monday afternoon. High temperatures on Monday will vary from the lower 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s in the far west. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... Looking very spring-like as amplified mid-level height pattern is forecast for mid-week. High pressure is forecast to build along the southeast Atlantic Coast with 500 mb heights of 2-2.5 standard deviation above normal. This subtropical ridge of high pressure will provide a deep southwesterly flow of warm air into our region with temperatures 20 degrees above normal. Southerly winds will also result in increasing dewpoints and moisture with some potential for morning stratus and drizzle along the foothills of the Blue Ridge into North Carolina both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Forecast soundings by Wednesday afternoon even show some weak CAPE, so afternoon cumulus and potential for convective showers will enter the picture for Wednesday, coverage mainly limited to the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... An upper long wave trough over the central/northern Rockies is forecast to move east, flattening the subtropical ridge over the southeast CONUS. This will allow a cold front to move into the area from the northwest Thursday, potentially stalling over or just north of our region. This front will result in an increasing threat for showers, but no snow...temperatures remaining above the seasonal norm. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 PM EST Sunday... VFR conditions will continue heading through the evening hours. MVFR conditions will start to overspread the area in the form of lowering clouds, light rain and fog as a warm front lifts north through the region late tonight into Monday. Pockets of IFR are possible. Improvement to low end VFR is expected for the area between and southwest of roughly KBLF-KBCB Monday afternoon. Winds will Jenelle be light but trend south close to 10kts during the day Monday. High confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... MVFR conditions will improve to VFR Monday afternoon. However, We may clear out enough Monday night for MVFR/IFR fog to form. High pressure strengthens offshore resulting in a return to overall VFR Tuesday ahead of the next cold front well west of the Appalachians. Scattered MVFR showers are expected Wednesday into Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...DS/KK SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS/KK/WP

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