Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251915 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast. A dry cold front will move through the Appalachians and mid Atlantic region on Thursday, with much cooler weather for the end of the workweek into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Monday... Fair weather pattern continues with high pressure surface and aloft yielding warm and dry conditions across the region. Expect the veil of cirrus from Maria off the coast to gradually wane through tomorrow. This should allow for better cooling and more coverage of fog west of the Blue Ridge overnight. Fair and warm conditions continue for Tuesday with a northeasterly breeze. Low level moisture will also be on the increase and help generate some lower clouds, but do not anticipate enough instability or orographic forcing to generate any precipitation so will continue with a dry forecast Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s east of the Ridge with mid/upper 50s to the west along with some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid/upper 80s east, low/mid 80s west. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 304 PM EDT Monday... Really not much change this forecast as Hurricane Maria shifts north and weakens well east of the Outer Banks, then heads northeast as the upper trough and associate front move across by Thursday morning. This front should be limited in moisture so not putting any chance of showers. Will see some clouds and thats about it. Wednesday looks to be the last day of summer like temperatures/dewpoints with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains, to mid to upper 80s east. Lows Wednesday night still above normal with upper 50s to lower 60s west, to lower to upper 60s east. Slightly cooler with less humidity Thursday with a little more breeze out of the northwest. With partly to mostly sunny skies highs will range from the mid to upper 70s west, to lower to mid 80s east. Dewpoint temperature should drop into the lower to mid 50s most places by mid-late afternoon. Seasonably cool Thursday night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s west, to mid to upper 50s east.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 203 PM EDT Monday... 500 MB trough digs across the Great Lakes into our area Friday into Saturday with high pressure starting to shift southward from the Great Lakes into Sunday. Will be a dry/cooler with temps close to or below normal. Later Sunday into Monday the flow turns more northeast as the high wedges southward. Should start to see clouds increasing Monday especially as the flow turns more east off the ocean. At the moment confidence in any showers is low, so keeping pops below 15 percent.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Monday... No change in quiet weather pattern with high pressure surface and aloft. This will yield mainly VFR TAFs under some high cirrus clouds, with the exception being late night valley fog/stratus west of the Blue Ridge producing a period of IFR cigs/vsbys at KLWB and KBCB. Any fog/stratus dissipates early Monday morning with VFR through the end of the period. Winds will generally be light this TAF period, though northeasterly flow around Maria off the east coast will amplify winds and generate some low gusts mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast through the first half of this week as strong high pressure aloft slowly drifts across areas just to our north. The upper high will gradually weaken and allow a mainly dry cold front to move through the region late in the week. Late night/early morning fog can be expected through the week as low-level moisture slowly increases in advance of the front. For the most part, VFR conditions are expected to continue through the week and into the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...MBS/RAB

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