Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 250449 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1149 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1100 PM EST SATURDAY... FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF OF LONG ISLAND...A CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS LONG AS WINDS HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD IN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES. SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS HAS ENHANCED THE UPSLOPE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. WIND SPEEDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS HAVE ALSO INCREASED. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6AM. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH. HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FOR OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING ICE WHICH IS STILL ON THE TREES WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE TESTED BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 4AM AND FOR SUNDAY WITH BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY EVENING...THUS LEAVING US WITH A DRY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS WE TRANSITION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED EARLY ON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 30S AND 40S AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. NOTICED THAT PLACES LIKE BOONE NORTH CAROLINA HAVE ALREADY SLIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...THE TEMP PROFILE AT BOONE HAS STEADILY TRENDED DOWN FROM A PEAK OF 37 DEG F AT 2AM TO 23 DEG F AT 3PM. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT AIRMASS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THIS COLD POOL MOVES EAST...READINGS MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE. 85H TEMPERATURE PROGS GO FROM M6 DEG C AT TNB/BOONE THIS EVE BACK UP TO NEAR 0 DEG C BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VARIATION IN THE PATH BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO PASS OVER...OR JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A SNOW VERSUS RAIN SCENARIO WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR REGION WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREENBRIER...BATH...AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES MAY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE TWO TO THREE INCH RANGE. OTHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW TO COMMENCE AND PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. A REINFORCING SURGE OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THIS REGION. THE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD WV AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV WITH AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED DUSTING TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE. TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END IN THE WEST...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND COOLER WITH READINGS AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO READINGS AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CHICAGO AREA WITH AN APPROACHING TRAILING COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. WILL KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETUPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS LOOKED RELATIVELY DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1145 PM EST SATURDAY... AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS WAS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE WERE GUSTING UP AT 50 KNOTS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. BUFKIT HAD WINDS AT KROA AND KBCB DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AFTER 09Z/4AM. FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ONCE THE WIND DIMINISHES AND STARTS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE. THE CLIPPER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...ENTERING THE TENNESSE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING IN BUFKIT AND THE 00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE BROUGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB AFTER 03Z. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT KLWB FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT THE ONSET BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE CLIPPER AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY COMES IN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OCNL IFR DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONFIDENCE THE MVFR CIGS WILL SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. AFTER MONDAY...ANY PTYPE WILL BE SNOW WITH DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND REGION-WIDE VFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ015. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/PM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.