Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 210529 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to keep our weather pattern dry heading into and through the weekend. A potent cold front will approach and cross the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a return of showers and gusty winds to the region. Drier weather returns to the area by the middle to end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 100 AM EDT Saturday... Forecast update for the remainder of the overnight hours will reflect an increase in fog coverage across parts of Southside Virginia and neighboring sections of north central North Carolina. Dewpoint depressions have been at zero the past couple of hours, and an expected trend is expected through daybreak. Satellite fog channel imagery is starting to show signs of the onset of development in the same area as well. Have also tweaked the latest hourly temperature, dew point, and wind grids to reflect the latest observations and expected trends through the overnight. As of 1015 PM EDT Friday... Current forecast on track. Made only minor adjustments to overnight lows. High pressure will remain in control of our weather as it gradually slides off the mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. Expect bulk of upstream cirrus to arrive in the west late tonight after good radiational cooling, allowing for more in the way of valley fog to develop toward daybreak. Lows will be similar to last night with readings generally in the 40s, cooler in the valleys. Saturday will feature sunshine through high clouds as temperatures remain well above normal. Highs tomorrow will reach the mid/upper 70s east of the Ridge, low/mid 70s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Expect mild and dry weather Sat night into Sunday with some increase in clouds Sunday afternoon as upper trough shifts toward the MS Valley with upper low closing off over Arkansas. Models vary some on timing but overall seem reasonable that showers will start to spread into the NC mountains/VA Blue Ridge after Sunday dusk, and stay around this area maybe nosing as far northeast as Floyd to Mt. Airy overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday... A deep trough will evolve across the eastern U.S. Monday-Wednesday with enough agreement in models showing better lift and precip coverage Monday night into Tuesday. Some instability with the upper trough may allow some low topped thunderstorms to form Tuesday, but overall looking at moderate to at times heavier showers as front moves Tuesday. On Wednesday, the upper trough will begin to shift east of the region, but keep cold advection and upslope across the region. This will result in some continued threat for showers across mainly the Alleghanys southward into the western mountains of NC. Possibly early in the morning, low-level temperatures and thickness values will support a mix of rain/snow in the higher terrain, but nothing supports any accumulation or much QPF at this time. With regard to the remainder of the period, all of the extended models have trended much more progressive with the upper trough, lifting it out of here as quickly as Thursday as another fast moving trough moves across the northern U.S. West to southwest flow aloft will return to the area and allow temperatures to begin to moderate by the end of the week. Temperatures Tuesday will be at or just below normal due to extensive area of showers. Wednesday will be a rather chilly raw day, especially across the mountains where rain/snow showers and gusty northwest winds are expected as the upper trough reaches its deepest point. Thursday-Friday will see an end to the precipitation and a moderation in temperatures as the upper trough quickly lifts out of the region. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 125 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure across the area will help yield primarily VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF forecast time period concluding at 06Z/2AM Sunday. The exception will be a few hours around daybreak this morning of some mountain and river valley IFR/MVFR fog and associated stratus. Any sub-VFR conditions will quickly improve to VFR a couple of hours after sunrise. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog. A deep upper trough and associated strong cold front will move into the region from the west by Monday with sub-VFR conditions in rain/showers along with increasing wind. Colder, blustery, unsettled weather with perhaps largely MVFR conditions across the mountains will linger through the later half of next week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...RAB/WP AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS

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