Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 160114 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 914 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 850 PM EDT TUESDAY... FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND BEST SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH ABOUT 10-11 PM BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY GOING GIVEN ONE MORE EXPECTED SURGE IN SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED TO THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE REMOVING ANY LINGERING POPS. IN THE WEST...BEST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAINLY NW GREENBRIER WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO POSSIBLE. THUS LOWERED POPS AND SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THERE BUT HOLDING ONTO LOW CLOUDS LONGER PER LATEST MODELS AND TENDENCY FOR NW FLOW TO LINGER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A FLURRY MAY SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BETTER DRYING DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO CLEAR. FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST WHERE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT BELOW FREEZING MOST SPOTS PENDING JUST HOW FAST WINDS DIMINISH WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL ALMOST DAWN. OTRW RUNNING WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING TO LOW/MID 20S WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SWING TO TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN MODIFY TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIMERANGE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY... CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR SWINGS IN FROM THE SW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SE WVA LOCATIONS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS. POST FRONTAL RAINFALL REMAINS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST BUT STILL APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IF NOT SOONER. OTRW EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BASES THIS EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXCLUDING BLF/LWB SCATTERING OUT OR GOING TOTALLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. APPEARS MVFR TO VFR CIGS MAY HOLD ESPCLY AROUND BLF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PER LATEST NAM. NW WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD DAWN. APPEARS COULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS IN A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING ESPCLY AROUND ROA-BCB AS SKIES CLEAR AND STRONGER MIXING DEVELOPS WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT CROSSING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NE FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY... HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE THURSDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE... AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY... APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F. LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F. DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F. BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F. BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F. LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ014>017-022. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006- 019-020. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...KM AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP HYDROLOGY...KM/WP CLIMATE...JC/KM

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