Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 202350 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 750 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... VERY QUIET OVER OUR CWA ATTM...JUST SPOTTY SHOWS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST TO SMITH MTN LAKE. ALL THE ACTIVE WX IS OVER ERN KY/TN AND NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM STORMS OVER ERN KY...AND WILL SEE IF THEY CONTINUE MARCHING SEWD TO SKIRT OUR FAR SW VA COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL/SMYTH AND GRAYSON INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A WEAKENING TREND OVERALL...BUT STILL THINK AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WORKS HERE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ACTIVITY OVER CHARLOTTESVILLE IS ALSO DRIFTING SE..AND MAY GRAZE BUCKINGHAM. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS MAY ALSO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION BUT WE ARE NOW ENTERING DUSK SO INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES MAY KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND 65-70 EAST. WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER. HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90 SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STORMS. EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE. CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME. WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST... TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES. EXTENDED AVIATION... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...MBS/RCS

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