Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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216 FXUS61 KRNK 021734 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1234 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest into Saturday. The high moves overhead Sunday ahead of moisture that will work into the area well in advance of a developing storm system along the Gulf Coast early next week. This system should track west of the region by Tuesday with a trailing cold front working through the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 947 am EST Friday...Forecast is in pretty good shape to this point in the morning. The only change I did opt to make was to increase sky cover across far southwest Virginia and our southeastern West Virginia counties though at least the early afternoon hours. As is evident in morning infrared imagery and as reflected in METARs at BLF, BCB and HSP, the southern fringe of of OVC stratocumulus field is beginning to advance into the Alleghany Highlands, southeast West Virginia and far southwest Virginia a bit sooner than earlier indications. Temperatures appear on track in these areas for now but may need to lower in later updates by a couple degrees. Will monitor temperature trends in these areas for now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made. Previous near-term discussion issued at 400 am follows... Northwest flow in the low level should persist this period while surface high stays over the Gulf Coast states. During this period a couple of vorts shift across the Central Appalachians and Mid- Atlantic. Noticing models keep the clouds stuck into tonight in the western slopes of WV and possibly far SW Virginia, with slight chance for a rain or snow showers across western Greenbrier County. As we head east though, should be sunny to partly cloudy today, with some stratocu making it to the Blue Ridge. Some high clouds are possible after dusk per upper jet, but still no more than partly cloudy east of the WV/SW VA mountains. We will keep temperatures close to early December norms today with readings from the lower to mid 40s west, aside from some 30s on the western slopes of Greenbrier per clouds, to 50-55 east. Tonight should be similar, winds will be a determining factor on how cold it gets, as with high still over the TN valley, some mixing will still occur outside lower valleys. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s across the mountains to lower to mid 30s east. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM EST Friday... The northern stream of the upper level pattern will be progressive through the weekend, while a closed low forms over northern Mexico. This will allow a series of short waves to move up from the southwest for the latter portion of the weekend, followed by the closed low opening up and ejecting toward the Appalachians during the first part of next week. So after high pressure moving through the Ohio valley brings quiet weather for the start of the weekend, there will be increasing chances for precipitation especially south of Route 460 over to the Mountain Empire of VA and northwest mountains of NC where temperature profiles will favor some mixed wintry precipitation and some patchy freezing rain late Saturday night into early Sunday. Some additional wintry precipitation is possible across western Greenbrier county late Sunday night. No significant accumulations of wintry precipitation are expected. By Monday, surface high pressure over New England and eastern Canada will form a solid wedge down the east slopes of the Appalachians and enhance isentropic lift ahead of the ejecting low. This will allow better chances for precipitation to overspread the entire region from the southeast very late Monday and Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 AM EST Friday... A surface low is forecasted to track into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. A secondary surface low forms over the eastern Gulf states Tuesday morning. This secondary low will bring the chance for moderate rain into the region Monday night into Tuesday. This system will move north of the region by Tuesday night. Either Wednesday or Thursday of next week, a strong cold front will bring bitterly cold temperatures to the area. Both the ECM and GFS have Friday afternoon highs in the 20s across the mountains and 30s east of the Blue Ridge. These are forecasted highs, not wind chills. Until next week`s front crosses the region, temperatures will run close to normal (mid to upper 40s west and low to mid 50s east). && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1234 PM EST Friday... Generally VFR for most of the TAFs except with MVFR stratocu ceilings at BLF and LWB. Some of these MVFR ceilings may occasionally affect BCB through 00z but should be predominantly VFR. Stratocu should remain tough to scour out through the evening but should begin to trend VFR all terminals during the day on Saturday. Rest of today, northwest winds around 10 kts with gusts at times to near 20 kts for western terminals to 6-10 kts for LYH/DAN. Northwest winds should then slacken to 6-10 kts into the evening before trending light northwest for Saturday. Extended aviation discussion... VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday night, though will start to see moisture stream northeast from a low pressure system moving across the Gulf Coast states Sunday into Monday with increasing threat of mainly rain. Will likely see a period of sub- VFR cigs and possibly vsbys at most sites Monday but confidence still is low as to how far north MVFR or lower conditions will advance. A strong cold front will likely bring more in the way of widespread sub-VFR in rain and low cigs on Tuesday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...AL/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/RCS AVIATION...AL

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