Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 060907 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 407 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE END THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF US SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 325 AM EST FRIDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. ONLY MOISTURE LEFT IS BELOW 850 MB. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. AT 500 MB...TWO SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 850 MB BEHIND THESE WAVES LATE TONIGHT. RIDGE WILL STAY MIXED TONIGHT BUT VALLEYS WILL STILL DECOUPLE. EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD BETWEEN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN VALLEY AND RIDGES TONIGHT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO MODERATE AS COLDER AIR RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CLIP THE INTERSTATE 64 REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRULY COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL. DESPITE INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS...HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN AS OVERNIGHT AS LOWS HOVER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...THIS ONE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL RADIATE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW MONDAY EVENING...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET...AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. AGAIN...WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR FLOW INTO OUR AREA...MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. THE LIKELY EXCEPTION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING WILL BE THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND A FEW POCKETS ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH... EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR THESE AREAS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY... A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS. THE TWO STREAMS ARE PROGGED TO MERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL ALLOW POTENTIALLY FOR INTERACTION FROM BOTH STREAMS. GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH OR HOW LITTLE OUR AREA WOULD BE IMPACTED...AND LIKEWISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS DO SHOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING TIMING...BUT NOT BY TRACK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OFFER A SOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TRENDS THE SYSTEM THE FARTHEST NORTH...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE WHOLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THAT OF THE ECMWF...BUT WITH TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG WITH EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR A LOT OF WINTRY WEATHER. FOR THE MOST PART....RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL BE A SOME POCKETS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ON EARLY TUESDAY IN THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL PROFILE WARMS EVEN MORE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE JET ORIENTATION DOES NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...AND THERE ARE WEAKER SIGNALS WITHIN THE MODELS THAT ANOTHER...AND WEAKER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL TREND MILDER. BY THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1115 PM EST THURSDAY... MVFR CIGS OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MAY STILL SEE A SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS AS WELL UNDER SMALL SNOW SHOWER BANDS AROUND KBLF THROUGH ABOUT 07Z/2AM BEFORE MOISTURE FADES. ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGH CANOPY OUT EAST FOR A WHILE LONGER. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE CONTINUED OVERALL VFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING TO THE SOUTH. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH TO GENERATE SOME WESTERN SLOPE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OTHERWISE VFR PENDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY... RIVER LEVELS IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER BASINS CONTINUE TO FALL. ONLY SPANISHBURG AND PIPESTEM ON THE BLUESTONE RIVER WERE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE ROANOKE AND UPPER JAMES BASIN HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGES AND ARE SLOWLY FALLING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WBCFLWRNK AND WBCFLSRNK PRODUCTS FOR UPDATES ON ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ019- 020-024. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507- 508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/DS/JH/WP HYDROLOGY...AMS/JH

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