Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010922 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 422 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in from the southwest today into Saturday. The high moves overhead Sunday though a storm system developing over Gulf Coast states should begin to spread moisture our way Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 am EST Thursday... Models keeping northwest flow today in the low levels with variable solutions on extent of moisture and precip in the upslope area. Seems moisture will be limited enough to keep isolated threat in the Greenbrier Mountains. Temperatures favor a snow/rain shower mix, but again little qpf so not expecting accumulations. Winds should be brisk at times today across the mountains/foothills, with gusts as high as 25-30 mph, to possibly 35-40 mph early in the higher terrain. Temperatures will actually be near normal with highs from the 40s mountains, to 50s east. Tonight, the flow appears to weaken where winds tally off some, though center of high stays over the Gulf Coast states. With upper vort moving in the flow aloft across the mountains, some lift into the mountains may allow for a slight chance for more snow showers in the area west of Lewisburg, WV but again not much qpf if any. Lows will stay at or above normal with lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s mountains, to mid 30s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure will build east from lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Appalachians Thursday night into Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the mid 20s in the northwest mountains to the lower 30s in the Piedmont. A weak shortwave will rotate around the upper low on Friday. This may produce a brief period of snow showers across the northern Alleghanys, mainly north of the RNK CWA. High temperatures Friday will vary from the lower 30s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the Piedmont. High pressure will build east into our area Friday night. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 20s in the northern mountains to the lower 30s in the Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... The challenge in the forecast remains the southern stream system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. The surface low will lift north into Louisiana by Sunday and reach the South Carolina coast by Sunday night. In the westerly flow aloft, the northern stream system will slide east from the Great Lakes Sunday into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temperatures hovering from the mid 20s to the lower 30s and 850mb temperatures struggling to rise above zero. At this time, will hold with a rain and snow mix for Saturday night into Sunday morning. There may also be some pockets of IP. At any rate, ECMWF and GFS, warm air will begin to surge northward Sunday changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. Will have to watch for an "in-situ" wedge keeping the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and hard for the models to capture. Looks like Sunday high temperatures should climb to the mid 30s in the mountains to the mid 40s in the Piedmont. By Sunday night into Monday, the bulk of the moisture pushes south of our region. A wavy frontal boundary will wonder across the Southeast States Monday into Tuesday. Another frontal system approaches from the central U.S. Monday and lifts northward into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. Questions arrive further in the extended periods about Wednesday with ECMWF curving out a low off the North Carolina coast while the GFS is less progressive. After a seasonably chilly/slightly below normal period through the weekend, expect a return to milder temperatures early next week as heights build aloft across the Southeast. A cold front will sweep east across the region on Thursday with colder temperatures arriving for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1155 PM EST Wednesday... Cold front was just crossing through KDAN and KLYH at 05Z/midnight. This front will move east overnight and will be off the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Expect MVFR clouds tonight and Thursday morning on the west slopes of the Appalachians with clearing for the rest of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. High confidence on timing of front and ceilings through the TAF period. Behind the front winds become northwest and this upslope will also result in isolated to scattered rain/snow showers across mainly areas along and west of a KBLF to KLWB line. Probability of precipitation not high enough to include any showers in the southeast West Virginia TAFs at this time. Extended aviation discussion... VFR conditions are expected at most locations Thursday night through Saturday. Sunday into Monday our next weather system will move into the area. Confidence in timing is not high at this point, but its influence increases the probability of rain and MVFR or lower ceilings. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...KK/RAB AVIATION...AMS/DS

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