Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 252035 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 335 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An intense cold front is east of the Appalachian Mountains and will move to the coast this evening. High pressure will cover much of the eastern United States on Sunday then will move off the southeast coast on Monday. A low pressure system will develop in the southern plains on Monday and track into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EST Saturday... The cold front/line of convection will move east of the piedmont and away from the forecast area by 4PM, therefore we will cancel the severe thunderstorm watch #39. As the cold front tracks to the coast this evening, modest pressure rises and a 45kt cross barrier jet will bring breezy conditions to the region. Winds will begin to subside over the piedmont after midnight but remain breezy across the mountains, especially along the Blue Ridge where subsidence will be the greatest. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible this evening. High pressure builds in by noon Sunday allowing the winds to subside. An upper level trough will pivot over the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region overnight. A short wave axis and lingering low level moisture may produce light snow across Western Greenbrier this evening. Flow becomes zonal after midnight and trajectories are lost from the Great Lakes to end snow showers shortly after midnight. Dry high pressure will keep the area dry with clear skies Sunday. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20s across the mountains and lower 30s east of the Blue Ridge. Believe it or not, these temperatures are normal for this time of year. Couple the cold temperatures and wind, Sunday morning temperatures will feel like they are in the teens across the mountains and low 20s in the east. Once the wind relaxes, abundant sunshine will help warm temperatures into the mid 40s west to mid 50s east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... High pressure heads off the coast Sunday night. A warm front lifts north across us Monday into Tuesday bringing a threat of rain, albeit low chance as main low and energy stay over the midwest. Temperatures warm back to above seasonal levels Tuesday as we get into the warm sector. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EST Saturday... Not much change from previous forecast. Will see upper trough move east to the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. A strong cold front moves across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperature slide back to normal or below normal as we dry out Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1250 PM EST Saturday... A cold front just moved east of the Blue Ridge and will bring the chance for isolated thunderstorms to the piedmont (LYH/DAN) early this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 40kts are possible with this line of convection. These storms will exit the piedmont by 21Z/4PM. Pressure rises behind the front will keep breezy and gusty conditions across the area into this evening. Winds will subside across the piedmont later this evening, but will remain breezy over the mountains into Sunday morning. High pressure will cover the region Sunday into Monday with VFR expected under lighter winds. Extended Aviation Discussion... A warm front is expected to stay near us Monday night into Tuesday keeping a threat of showers around with sub-VFR possible. Another wave of low pressure will likely prolong the sub-VFR conditions with the next round of heavier showers possible on Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...RCS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.