Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 181851 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 250 PM EDT THURSDAY... BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE ONSET OF A DEEPENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE BANKED UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEPTH TO SUPPORT MENTION OF SPOTTY -RA AND CERTAINLY DRIZZLE/FOG BY DAYBREAK. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIMITED...AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MIXING MAY ERASE DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH AREAS KEEPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY... LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND BECOMES STRONGER OVER THE GULF STREAM. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH PULL MORE DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. THE GULF STREAM DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFF SHORE AND WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RAIN FREE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOPPING OUT NEAR NORMAL. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY TURNS THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A STRONG FALL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THIS FRONT ARRIVES...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN FALLING ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...LOSING THEIR INTENSITY MOVING TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY THEN JUMP THE FOOTHILLS AS A WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE A LEE TROUGH WILL RESIDE ON MONDAY. SHOWERS LEAVE THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A VERY LARGE 1025MB HIGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT 85H TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR +16C ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT 85H TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +8C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY... SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME BUILDUPS OF CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED MVFR AFTERNOON SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL BE TO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAF LOCATIONS. CU FIELDS SCATTERING OUT BY EVENING UNDERNEATH A LEFTOVER MID DECK. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WEDGING. THINK SOME DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESPCLY KROA/KBCB NEAR DAWN WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG MIXED IN AND ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS LATE. ISOLATED MVFR CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY FOG AT NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF ROA/BCB...THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED. PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUD LAYER PERSISTING BETWEEN 040-060KFT...SO IT WILL NOT BE ENTIRELY CLEAR. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AND FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE TIME WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...JH/KK

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