-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
742
FXUS61 KRNK 271038
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure heat ridge will weaken into the weekend. This
will continue to allow widespread scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop as an extremely moist and unstable
airmass continues to remain over the region through the middle
of next week. Temperatures will gradually cool to more seasonal
temperatures through the weekend into into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Another round of thunderstorms will be possible by late
morning, continuing through late evening.

2) Storms today could pose a risk for flash flooding and strong
damaging winds.

Overall upper flow will remain stagnant under upper level
ridging and weak surface high pressure. Not much support for
organized convection, however strong surface heating among a
very moist environment should result in afternoon CAPE values
to exceed 2000 J/kg. Storms will develop by early afternoon and
evening across the mountains and then propagate into the
Piedmont. Very weak flow will keep storms motions very slow with
cells mergers and formation off outflow boundaries. This will
pose an increased threat of backbuilding storms, thus increasing
the threat for flash flooding. Storms also pose a threat for
strong damaging winds as well.

Will lose storm coverage and intensity after sunset to just a
few lingering showers and occasional thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend.

2. Daily chances of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.


By the beginning of the weekend, the upper ridge will be weakening,
as a weak upper level low develops over the southeastern states. At
the surface, a low pressure system will be slowly tracking
northeastward into Canada from the Great Lakes, with the associated
warm front across New England and cold front extending back into the
Ohio Valley, putting the local forecast area in the warm sector.
Surface high pressure will also continue to push into the Atlantic,
keeping plenty of warm, moist air into the region through the
weekend. With daytime heating increasing instability of this moist
airmass overhead, expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop
each afternoon and evening. Storms look to first develop over the
mountains, and then track eastward into the Piedmont by the evening
hours. Coverage looks to be scattered at this time, though with
these multiple days of showers, areas that have received repeated
rounds of rain will see an increasing risk for localized flooding,
especially with slow storm motion, as mid level winds look to be
between 5 to 15 knots throughout the weekend.

High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s west of the Blue
Ridge, and low to mid 90s in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

1. Thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Slightly cooler and drier Wednesday and Thursday.

A change in the weather pattern is coming for the long term forecast
period, as a large 500mb trough moves over the eastern US early in
the work week, and a cold front is progged to cross the area on
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring chances for more widespread
storms in the area on Tuesday, though it is too early to determine
specific mesoscale details and severe potential at this time. That
being said, with better shear and lift provided by the frontal
passage, there are increased chances for more organized storms
Tuesday. Behind the front, a slightly cooler and drier airmass will
work its way into the region, bringing a bit of a respite from the
above normal heat and humidity for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 635 AM EDT Thursday...

Patchy fog can be expected for the next hour or so. Fog will
begin to dissipate and all terminals will return to VFR.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to develop
during the early afternoon today, with storms initially
developing across higher terrain locations west of the Blue
Ridge. These storms throughout the afternoon and evening look to
progress east into the Piedmont. For now will have VCTS at all
TAF sites through the evening.

Rain/storms will taper off again after sunset, with generally
VFR conditions. Some patchy fog may begin to develop again late
tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog. A
front tracking in by Tuesday will bring a better coverage of
storms and better chance of sub-VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG