Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 061144 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 744 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY... NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT. POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS. BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING... THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF LYNCHBURG. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY... EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS. WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT 500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA. FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY... TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY... FOG HAS BEEN IN AND OUT AT SOME TAF SITES...BUT OVERALL THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS FOG...THOUGH THE DENSE FOG NEAR BCB/LWB IS NOT FAR FROM THE AIRPORT. KEPT CIGS SUB VFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING BCB/ROA/LWB/BLF...WITH SOME VFR TURNING UP BY MIDDAY OUT EAST..AND OVER THE MTNS AFTER 17Z-18Z. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF A BLF-LYH LINE...AND STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ONE TIME TO HAVE PREDOMINANT RAINFALL IN THE TAFS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NE INTO PA LATER TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE WITH VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVER AT LEAST LWB/BCB AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP

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