Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 102041 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 341 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region to start the workweek. However, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes region will push another surge of very cold air into the region on Tuesday with blustery conditions and snow showers in the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Sunday... Generally quiet weather expected through Monday. A short wave will bring some clouds and blustery conditions to the mountains and maybe a flurry near the Greenbrier valley of WV overnight into tomorrow. Clouds will dissipate Monday morning and temperatures will warm up a bit but stay below normal. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 20s, with highs Monday in the mid/upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Northern stream will dominate forecast for mid-week with jet stream providing a surge of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday. Upper level disturbance associated with the onset of cold air advection will produce snow showers over the mountains. Again the main track of the surface low and upper vort will tend to take best lift northwest of our forecast area but enough west/northwest upslope to bring a couple inches to the mountains of Greenbrier with an inch or less as far south as the NC High Country though again track favors less south of the WV/VA border. Flurries could reach as far east as the Blue ridge, especially heading into Tuesday night as a shot of some very cold pours across the Great Lakes resulting in a plethora of downstream low level moisture which will get lifted over the central Appalachians. Temperatures will take a plunge Tuesday and Tuesday night as surge of cold air will send lows Tuesday night into the teens areawide, complimented by 850MB temps of -14 to -16C. There is potential for wind chill values to reach zero to minus 5 in the he mountains.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 340 PM EST Sunday... Upper air pattern is forecast to remain amplified with a cold upper level trough over eastern North America through Friday. Embedded short waves passing through the general flow pattern will result in clouds and potential for mountain snow showers and flurries. Temperatures will favor the colder side of normal from until Friday...trending back closer to normal for the weekend as the upper flow becomes more zonal.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Sunday... Generally expecting VFR conditions this TAF period east of the Blue Ridge. However, a short wave passing through the region will bring some upslope clouds and a period of sub VFR conditions west of the Blue Ridge overnight. Do not expect anything more than a flurry or two far north, and nothing is expected to affect KBLF or KLWB. Any clouds west of the Ridge will dissipate early Monday morning with VFR conditions all sites for the latter portion of the valid period. The short wave will amplify low level winds overnight with some gusty conditions becoming established west of the Ridge, possibly extending east of the Ridge after diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer Monday morning. Extended Discussion... This pattern of northwest flow aloft will persist through the period. The more prominent clipper moves in Tuesday with gusty winds behind it and snow showers. Expect sub-VFR into the mountains late Monday night-Tuesday night, then weak high pressure builds in Wednesday followed by another weaker clipper Thursday. Overall mainly VFR during the Wed-Thu time frame. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...MBS/WP

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