Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241510 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1010 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system just offshore of Atlantic City will move northeast today, yielding coastal rain and inland snow from New York to Maine. In its wake, a period of strong northwest winds will occur across the Mid-Atlantic states. High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic region by tonight, skies clearing and winds diminishing. Southwesterly flow will develop on the back side of the High on Wednesday with well above normal temperatures. Wednesday will be the last day of warmth this month. A large cold upper level trough of low pressure will settle over the eastern two thirds of the continental U.S. from Thursday through the end of the month bringing a return to near seasonal January temperatures, which is highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1110 AM EST Tuesday... Little change in the early morning forecast philosophy with this update as our area remains sandwiched between the departing low pressure system tracking northward off the DelMarVa Coast and high pressure over TN/KY. Temperatures today will be warmest across the piedmont where return of sunshine will allow for readings to climb into the 50s. Did adjust temperatures a degree or two upward during the morning across the foothills of northern NC where downsloping off the Blue Ridge is pushing temperatures a few degrees higher than anticipated. Mountain counties west of the Roanoke Valley and across the NC high country will continue to see lingering clouds through much of the day keeping temperatures from getting no higher than the 40s. Winds will be the strongest across the higher elevations today, especially along the Blue Ridge Parkway southwest of the Roanoke Valley and into the NC High Country. Wind gusts along this strip of real estate will gust close to 50 mph today. Blustery conditions will also be found across the lower elevations with occasional gusts of 25 to 35 mph. By tonight, High pressure will begin to take firm control. Any lingering cloudiness over the mountains is expected to dissipate during the overnight with clear skies anticipated across the entire CWA after midnight. Winds will also diminish, decoupling after midnight in the valleys allowing for temperatures to reach freezing. Higher elevations will begin to pick up a southwest wind toward daybreak Wednesday, so temperatures across the ridges should remain above freezing and may even begin to rise before sunrise. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to near +10 degrees C by daybreak Wednesday. This will set the stage for a fast warm up Wednesday once the inversion breaks Wednesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Tuesday... High Pressure and upper level ridging will bring very warm temperatures to the region Wednesday. Temperatures will run around 20F warmer than normal with widespread 60s across the forecast area to possibly 70F in Southside VA. A disturbance will track east of the Great Lakes Wednesday night, allowing a cold front to enter the mountains around midnight. This front will jump to a weak lee trough Thursday morning. With limited moisture, rainfall amounts should not exceed a quarter of an inch with lesser amounts along the Blue Ridge and foothill counties. Cooler air will slowly filter into the region Thursday with daytime highs topping out with values closer to normal. Daytime highs across the mountains should occur during the morning with temperatures remaining steady or slowly falling during the afternoon. Higher elevation will gradually see rain changing to snow through the day with little to no accumulations. By Thursday evening, the cold front is moving off the east coast and a positive-tilted trough tracks across the Ohio Valley. Westerly flow and trajectories from the Great Lakes, accumulating snow of a couple of inches are possible along western slopes and higher elevations. Not much moisture will gets past these western slopes Thursday night into Friday morning, therefore only a dusting is possible into the New River Valley. The upper level trough will dig into the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon, increasing the likelihood of snowbands reaching the Blue Ridge. Even though cold, accumulations during the day Friday maybe limited from increasing sun angle. High temperatures Friday will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s west to lower to mid 40s east. Also accompanying the cold air in the wake of the front will be strong and gusty winds Thursday and Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Monday... Our 500 mb height pattern begins to change in the mean to one of cyclonic flow aloft late in the week through early next week. Such a pattern lends itself to relatively unsettled weather conditions and cooler temperatures - to values near or slightly below late-January normals. Indications from today`s global models continue to point to a rather long duration northwest flow upslope snowfall starting Thursday evening into the weekend, and strictly limited to the favored western-facing hillsides in southeastern West Virginia, far southwest Virginia and the high country of North Carolina. It does appear that some light accumulations of snow would be possible through much of this period. How much snow still remains in some question as periods of more persistent snow would be governed to some extent by embedded shortwaves in the broader cyclonic flow, and largely westerly continental flow would also serve to keep available moisture limited. Outside of these upslope areas however, at this point it appears to be a largely cooler and dry period with highs generally in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 600 AM EST Tuesday... Narrow ribbon of moisture from central WV into southwestern VA will maintain a band of showers across southeast WV into the mountains of southwestern VA, including the New River Valley vcnty of KBCB. Elevations above 3000 feet were experiencing some snow, with mainly rain below 3000 feet. Widespread IFR cigs were found across the OH Valley and into the mountains and associated with the rain and snow. East of the mountains cloud bases were generally VFR, and little or no precipitation was making it over the mountains. Strong Low pressure near the New England coast will gradually move away from the central Appalachians today. This will result in gradually improving cigs with any precipitation coming to an end this afternoon. Winds will be gusty today. Strong cross barrier northwest flow in the wake of the departing storm system will result in surface gusts of 25 to 30 kts today. Ridgetop winds may gust to 45 kts. By tonight, High pressure will build overhead, winds diminishing and any lingering cloudiness over the mountains dissipating. Widespread VFR is anticipated for Wednesday. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will move east of the area during the day Wednesday, warm southwest winds developing on the back side of the high. A band of MVFR showers is possible along/behind a cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Colder west to northwest wind flow will develop behind this front with mountain snow showers likely for the weekend associated with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ015>017. NC...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ001-002-018. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...NF/PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AL AVIATION...NF/WP

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