Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 022210 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 610 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... GETTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM AMHERST/BOTETOURT EAST TOWARD BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX. THIS LINES UP WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT OVER THE ALLEGHANYS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO LOWER IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND INCREASE TOWARD LYH-FVX CORRIDOR AND NORTH. SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY GOING TOWARD 8 PM...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH SUN GOING DOWN. PREVIOUS MID AFTERNOON DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH MOST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COVERAGE WAS GREATER AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING...WE EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS. COVERAGE WILL START TO DECREASE A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PATCHY RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE MASON- DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WAS TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED TO OUR NORTH...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED...AND BRIEF AND ISOLATED SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER RAIN SHAFTS OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY MIST AND FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY...ANY SUB-VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY 14Z/10AM. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z/NOON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HOT AND HUMID DAYTIME AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND A FEW STORMS...THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A TREND TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS

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