Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 210717 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 317 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE 8C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND 3-4C ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY...AND DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S. NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CANOPY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF RADIATIVE COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS FALL BACK ONLY INTO THE 40S. LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENCROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT MAIN IMPACT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY... THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS SOLUTIONS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE BEST COVERAGE JUMPS TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WITH A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF DRYING IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO GUIDANCE OF 12 HOURS AGO. THE LATEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT TO AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND BE SETTLED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL HELP PROMPT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...GUSTS WILL BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 MPH. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...THE GROWING SEASON STILL HAS NOT STARTED IN THIS PARTS...SO NO FROST ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY... MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PREDOMINATES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ENOUGH TO PROVIDE UNIQUELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD FRONT AND BRINGS IT SOUTH TO CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS KEEPS A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE COLD FRONT/S PARENT LOW...AND EJECTS ITS QUICKLY EASTWARD MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR A QUICKER RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEMS INTO OR TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HAVING A MILDER PATTERN. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC WHICH LEANS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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ALTHOUGH DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY... LIGHT AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY POSE SOME TRANSPORT ISSUES FOR SCHEDULED PRESCRIBED BURNS DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY CALM THIS MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BECOMING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VARIABLE THIS MORNING... BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN EVEN MORE OPTIMAL CONDITION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WERT NEAR TERM...WERT SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT FIRE WEATHER...WERT

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