Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 141818
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
218 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather will continue through this evening. A cold front will
cross the area on Friday with associated showers and a few
thunderstorms. Disturbances will progress through the Great Lakes
region Sunday into Monday with mainly gusty and colder conditions
the impact on our region.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Continued dry through this evening.
2. Cold front to cross the area Friday with the greatest potential
for showers across western areas.
3. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.
High pressure was centered over the Southwest Atlantic. A
series of low pressure systems were over the mid-Mississippi
Valley with an associated cold front extending southwest into
Oklahoma. Plenty of sunshine across our region and generally dry
lower atmosphere was allow for above normal temperature across
the region. As we head into the evening, a 25 to 40 deg F dew
point depression will allow for a quick cool down into the 50s
and 60s by the late evening. Advancing high level cloud cover
from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley will help limit
the cooling process after midnight. Low temperatures tonight
will still be on the mild side of normal.
We have been seeing the NAMNST and to a greater extent the HRRR
simulated reflectivity offer a band of showers crossing PA/WV late
this afternoon and early evening. The southern extent of this
feature may clip western Greenbrier County for an hour or two right
around sunset. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected this evening
across area.
Showers will be on the increase starting late tonight across
Southeast West Virginia in advance of the approaching cold front.
Through the day Friday, the cold front will cross our region.
Confidence is decreasing though on its wetting impact on our region.
The latest CAM solutions are hinting that the best convection will
remain south of our region, with eastern portions of our area
receiving limited amounts of showers. Given this trend, have toned
down the precipitation chances in the east, while keeping them
moderately high across western areas. A look at the latest SREF
output places MUCAPE across the area on Friday around or a little
over 500 J/kg across the area. Likewise, effective bulk shear is
expected to be within the 30 to 40 kt range nearly orthogonal to the
cold front. Given these parameters, we will continue with the
mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday. The best
chances should be south of our region. Temperatures will continue to
be milder than average, but slightly cooler than today in the west
thanks to better coverage of cloud cover and precipitation for this
region.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Rain diminishes by Saturday morning, then mainly dry through
Sunday night.
2. Above normal temperatures through the weekend, but closer to
normal overnight lows Sunday night.
A cold front exits the area Friday night with rain showers coming
to an end by early Saturday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Friday evening. Saturday will be dry and warmer than
normal, though a few degrees cooler than Friday.
By the end of the weekend, a surface low tracks across southern
Canada and the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front progged to
cross the eastern US, while a southern stream frontal system
develops over the southern US. The deeper moisture continues to
look to stay south of our area, and further to the northeast
for the system to the north. Therefore, thinking precipitation
coverage over the area will be limited and trending mainly dry.
Highs on Sunday will be mild, since the frontal passage looks
to be later Sunday night, but behind that, overnight lows will
drop back towards freezing in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Colder temperatures and gusty winds to start the work week.
2. Mostly dry weather expected through midweek, with a few
upslope snow showers.
The work week will start with a fairly amplified upper level
pattern, with a deep trough over the eastern US and a closed upper
low situated over the southwest US. A much colder airmass will fill
into the region behind the frontal passage Sunday night. Strong cold
air advection and pressure rises through Tuesday will lead to
gusty northwest winds for the beginning of the work week. This
northwest flow may bring enough moisture from the Great Lakes
for some upslope rain and snow showers, mainly over southeast
West Virginia, Monday and possibly Tuesday, but any
precipitation will be likely be light. Surface high pressure
will develop over the central US and expand towards the east
coast by Tuesday, then become more centered over the southeast
by midweek. The high will keep weather dry and quiet for most of
the area, outside of those light mountain showers. Monday night
will be the coldest night of the period, with lows dropping
back below freezing, with 20s for most. Tuesday will start a
warming trend, with temperatures warming back towards seasonal
normals. By Thursday, southwest flow increases on the backside
of the high bringing temperatures around 5 degrees above normal
in the mid 50s to near 60 mountains to mid 60s southside VA into
the NC Piedmont.
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.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions are expected through 06Z/2AM Friday. After
this time, look for ceilings to trend lower from northwest to
southeast across the region. By the conclusion of the valid TAF
period at 18Z/2PM Friday, VFR conditions will still be expected
at KROA, KLYH, and KDAN. KBCB, KLWB, and KBLF will see a mix of
IFR and MVFR ceilings with pockets of rain showers moving into
the region. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.
Visibilities for the most part are expected to remain VFR
through Friday. Winds will trend slightly stronger through the
afternoon hours with many experiencing a south or southwest wind
of 7 to 10 kts with some gusts in the mountains of 15 to 20
kts. Through the night, there will a slight, but gradual,
increase in wind speed, and stronger gusts at the ridge tops are
expected. On Friday, winds will veer more southwest to west with
both sustained winds and gusts slightly higher than those
expected tonight.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Friday into Friday night, eastern portions of the area are
expected to remain generally VFR, but the mountains will see
continued sub-VFR conditions and lingering isolated to scattered
rain showers.
Saturday through Saturday night, VFR conditions will prevail.
Sunday into Monday, increasing and gusty northwest winds will
bring a return of some sub-VFR clouds to the Southeast West
Virginia mountains, along with isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...
After today, relative humidities will be much higher thanks to the
approach and passage of a cold front on Friday. However, we will
continue to see relative humidities in the 25 to 30 percent range
across the Piedmont this afternoon with a mix of low to mid 30s
percent for the mountains.
With the passage of the front on Friday, we are starting to see
evidence of less organized coverage of showers and storms then
earlier advertised. This may mean the bulk of the showers will be
across the mountains, with less showers activity translated east of
the crest of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall on Friday is expected to
average a few hundredths across the Piedmont and one to three tenths
of an inch across the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible.
Looking ahead, two northern branch systems will move across the
Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. Northwest winds behind these
system will increase and remain gusty through this period of the
forecast. This could be a fire weather concern, especially if
rainfall amounts on Friday are limited.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP/AS
LONG TERM...WP/AS
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...DS