-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
343
FXUS61 KRNK 281421
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1021 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall north of the area today. This
will keep much of the region under the influence of the warm and
humid airmass across the southeast. This will result in daily
showers and thunderstorms through the early to middle of next
week until a much stronger cold front looks to push through the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday...

No changes were made to the grids this morning. Some left over
cloud debris from last nights thunderstorms is still lingering
in a few locations in the Piedmont and SW Virginia. This has
kept temperatures 1-3 degrees cooler than surrounding locations.
Once these clouds dissipate or move east over the next 1-2
hours, temperatures in these areas should quickly catch up to
surrounding locations, and remain on track with the forecast.
Late afternoon and evening storm chances are again possible with
a weak cold front approaching from the west across the Ohio
valley. This will be a wash/rinse/repeat situation compared to
yesterday as rain chances remain in similar locations.
Fortunately, DCAPE values seem slightly lower today, which has
reduced the severe threat across the area. Nonetheless, storms
will have the chance to produce localized flash flooding if they
linger over areas too long, and if they develop over areas
today that have seen heavy totals over the last 1-2 days.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and evening.

2) The main threat from storms will be heavy rain, which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

A stalled boundary is currently draped across the Piedmont this
morning, but should begin to lift north again through the
daylight hours. Expecting another round of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening as daytime heating leads to increasing
instability.

Ongoing thunderstorms this morning will likely continue for the
next few hours, eventually tapering off before sunrise.
Areas of fog will develop as well, with some patchy dense fog.
Clouds will give way to partly sunny skies late this morning and
into the early afternoon, which should result in increasing
instability. As with the past few days, storms will begin to
develop by early afternoon and will likely continue into the
evening and overnight hours. Not a lot of support for organized
severe storms, but there is a possibility for a few stronger
storms capable of gusty winds. Main threat today will be heavy
rain from slow moving storms, which will once again pose a
threat for localized flash flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Line of thunderstorms expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

2. Warm and humid conditions to begin the work week.


A few more days of hot and humid conditions are expected for the
beginning of the work week, as a warm front continues to lift
northward into the northern Mid Atlantic. More showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and persist into the
evenings on Sunday and Monday afternoon. A cold front will track
through the area from the west on Tuesday, which will provide more
shear to help organize storms on Tuesday, than compared to the
mostly pulse and multicellular storms of recent days, models at this
time are showing more of a linear storm mode. Machine learning
models are also giving higher probabilities for a damaging wind
threat than recent days, highest east of the Blue Ridge. These
multiple days of storms over the same areas will also increase the
risk of localized flash flooding, as the soil becomes more saturated.

Temperatures each day will reach the 80s in the mountains, and low
to mid 90s in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Slightly cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

2. More showers and storms possible by the end of the week.

Following the frontal passage on Tuesday, surface high pressure
builds back into the area, with a slightly cooler and drier airmass.
Thus, Wednesday and Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than it
has been recently, and the dewpoints will be lower, making
conditions less humid. Another front looks to cross the area later
in the work week, which will bring potential for another round of
showers and thunderstorms, and also slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Saturday...

Any fog and low clouds will erode by 12-15z this morning.
Storms will again fire up by 17-18z, mainly in the mountains so
have VCTS in the afternoon at BLF/LWB/BCB. Brief reductions in
any storm today.

Storms could linger after dark tonight, but should begin to
dissipate after 10 PM. Areas of fog expected again late tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog. A
front tracking in by Tuesday will bring a better coverage of
storms and better chance of sub-VFR. This front should lead to
VFR conditions through the end of next week outside of any river
valley fog that may develop near BCB and LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG