Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 141818 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 218 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry weather will continue through this evening. A cold front will cross the area on Friday with associated showers and a few thunderstorms. Disturbances will progress through the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday with mainly gusty and colder conditions the impact on our region.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1. Continued dry through this evening. 2. Cold front to cross the area Friday with the greatest potential for showers across western areas. 3. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. High pressure was centered over the Southwest Atlantic. A series of low pressure systems were over the mid-Mississippi Valley with an associated cold front extending southwest into Oklahoma. Plenty of sunshine across our region and generally dry lower atmosphere was allow for above normal temperature across the region. As we head into the evening, a 25 to 40 deg F dew point depression will allow for a quick cool down into the 50s and 60s by the late evening. Advancing high level cloud cover from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley will help limit the cooling process after midnight. Low temperatures tonight will still be on the mild side of normal. We have been seeing the NAMNST and to a greater extent the HRRR simulated reflectivity offer a band of showers crossing PA/WV late this afternoon and early evening. The southern extent of this feature may clip western Greenbrier County for an hour or two right around sunset. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected this evening across area. Showers will be on the increase starting late tonight across Southeast West Virginia in advance of the approaching cold front. Through the day Friday, the cold front will cross our region. Confidence is decreasing though on its wetting impact on our region. The latest CAM solutions are hinting that the best convection will remain south of our region, with eastern portions of our area receiving limited amounts of showers. Given this trend, have toned down the precipitation chances in the east, while keeping them moderately high across western areas. A look at the latest SREF output places MUCAPE across the area on Friday around or a little over 500 J/kg across the area. Likewise, effective bulk shear is expected to be within the 30 to 40 kt range nearly orthogonal to the cold front. Given these parameters, we will continue with the mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday. The best chances should be south of our region. Temperatures will continue to be milder than average, but slightly cooler than today in the west thanks to better coverage of cloud cover and precipitation for this region. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM EDT Thursday... 1. Rain diminishes by Saturday morning, then mainly dry through Sunday night. 2. Above normal temperatures through the weekend, but closer to normal overnight lows Sunday night. A cold front exits the area Friday night with rain showers coming to an end by early Saturday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday evening. Saturday will be dry and warmer than normal, though a few degrees cooler than Friday. By the end of the weekend, a surface low tracks across southern Canada and the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front progged to cross the eastern US, while a southern stream frontal system develops over the southern US. The deeper moisture continues to look to stay south of our area, and further to the northeast for the system to the north. Therefore, thinking precipitation coverage over the area will be limited and trending mainly dry. Highs on Sunday will be mild, since the frontal passage looks to be later Sunday night, but behind that, overnight lows will drop back towards freezing in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1. Colder temperatures and gusty winds to start the work week. 2. Mostly dry weather expected through midweek, with a few upslope snow showers. The work week will start with a fairly amplified upper level pattern, with a deep trough over the eastern US and a closed upper low situated over the southwest US. A much colder airmass will fill into the region behind the frontal passage Sunday night. Strong cold air advection and pressure rises through Tuesday will lead to gusty northwest winds for the beginning of the work week. This northwest flow may bring enough moisture from the Great Lakes for some upslope rain and snow showers, mainly over southeast West Virginia, Monday and possibly Tuesday, but any precipitation will be likely be light. Surface high pressure will develop over the central US and expand towards the east coast by Tuesday, then become more centered over the southeast by midweek. The high will keep weather dry and quiet for most of the area, outside of those light mountain showers. Monday night will be the coldest night of the period, with lows dropping back below freezing, with 20s for most. Tuesday will start a warming trend, with temperatures warming back towards seasonal normals. By Thursday, southwest flow increases on the backside of the high bringing temperatures around 5 degrees above normal in the mid 50s to near 60 mountains to mid 60s southside VA into the NC Piedmont. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through 06Z/2AM Friday. After this time, look for ceilings to trend lower from northwest to southeast across the region. By the conclusion of the valid TAF period at 18Z/2PM Friday, VFR conditions will still be expected at KROA, KLYH, and KDAN. KBCB, KLWB, and KBLF will see a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings with pockets of rain showers moving into the region. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Visibilities for the most part are expected to remain VFR through Friday. Winds will trend slightly stronger through the afternoon hours with many experiencing a south or southwest wind of 7 to 10 kts with some gusts in the mountains of 15 to 20 kts. Through the night, there will a slight, but gradual, increase in wind speed, and stronger gusts at the ridge tops are expected. On Friday, winds will veer more southwest to west with both sustained winds and gusts slightly higher than those expected tonight. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Friday into Friday night, eastern portions of the area are expected to remain generally VFR, but the mountains will see continued sub-VFR conditions and lingering isolated to scattered rain showers. Saturday through Saturday night, VFR conditions will prevail. Sunday into Monday, increasing and gusty northwest winds will bring a return of some sub-VFR clouds to the Southeast West Virginia mountains, along with isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday... After today, relative humidities will be much higher thanks to the approach and passage of a cold front on Friday. However, we will continue to see relative humidities in the 25 to 30 percent range across the Piedmont this afternoon with a mix of low to mid 30s percent for the mountains. With the passage of the front on Friday, we are starting to see evidence of less organized coverage of showers and storms then earlier advertised. This may mean the bulk of the showers will be across the mountains, with less showers activity translated east of the crest of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall on Friday is expected to average a few hundredths across the Piedmont and one to three tenths of an inch across the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Looking ahead, two northern branch systems will move across the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. Northwest winds behind these system will increase and remain gusty through this period of the forecast. This could be a fire weather concern, especially if rainfall amounts on Friday are limited.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...WP/AS LONG TERM...WP/AS AVIATION...DS FIRE WEATHER...DS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.