Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241400 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1000 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front across the Ohio Valley will slide southeast toward the region this afternoon before slipping south into the Carolinas late tonight and early Tuesday. High pressure works east across the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Wednesday behind the front with our temperatures returning closer to normal. Another cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM EDT Monday... Much of the region has slipped into drier air aloft this morning between the residual outflow/trough axis in the foothills and the actual upstream cold front still lagging back in the Ohio Valley. This seen via lower PWATS off the morning RNK sounding vs the wetter GSO raob, and the latest water vapor loop showing much drier air aloft to the northwest. Latest short term guidance still remains on the dry side given lack of much forcing until the front to the northwest gets closer. Also expected mixing down of drier air aloft this afternoon should help dewpoints lower from west to east as the low level flow veers more westerly out east. However still cant completely rule out an isolated storm developing southeast pending location of the lee trough, and across the northwest where some weak convergence will develop late along the axis of instability over West Va. This supports adding in some isolated pops far west later on while keeping a mention southeast where expect overall coverage of deeper convection to remain to the south. Otrw appears enough surface- 7h northwest flow to help skies become sunny by afternoon per dry entrainment, with only some low clouds persisting a bit longer northwest slopes where aided by weak upslope. Kept highs a little above guidance east, low/mid 90s, as weak downslope kicks in with heating, while maintaining thickness supported mid/upper 80s west for now. Previous discussion as of 324 AM EDT Monday... Area of showers and storms have weakened east of the Blue Ridge early this morning with residual showers back over Southeast WV into the NC mountains behind sfc trough. Will see less coverage today as deeper moisture shift southeast with front arriving across the central Appalachians. SPC has pretty much cleared the area of severe threat and most models are in agreement on limited coverage, with isolated across the WV mountains with frontal convergence and in the far eastern CWA closer to lee trough and deeper moisture. Expect a little lower humidity today with west winds still providing a very warm day with highs ranging from the 80s west, to lower to mid 90s east. Tonight, axis of upper trough exits east while sfc front slides south into NC. Question remains how far south the front goes along with deep moisture. Appears any convection this afternoon should fade by mid evening. Skies stay clear to partly cloudy with lows in the 60s west, to lower 70s east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 AM EDT Monday... Looking a little drier Tue-Wed with northwest flow aloft and rising heights while sfc high wedges southward into our area from the northeast. Still could see some isolated showers or storms in the southern Blue Ridge and NC foothills/piedmont Tue, then a little more southeast flow may allow for convection Wednesday to fire further north along the Blue Ridge and foothills but confidence is low as latest models are trending drier. Return flow continues a little more Thursday ahead of next front moving into the Ohio Valley, but appears coverage will be isolated to widely scattered. Temperature will be close to normal this period, which is a little cooler than what we have been experiencing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Sunday... A cold front will make its way across the mid Atlantic on Friday, triggering more organized/widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest run of the weather forecast models indicate that the front will clear our area to the south by Saturday morning, bringing drier air in its wake. Have therefore lowered rain chances for next weekend, though isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 707 AM EDT Monday... LIFR/IFR cigs BLF/LWB should scatter out 14-15z. VFR expected all sites afterwards with isolated convection possible, though not expecting any at the taf sites, closest per model solutions would be LWB and LYH. Winds will remain WSW-WNW 5-10kts through most of the TAF valid period. Could see some fog late tonight, mainly LWB/BCB, but at the moment leaving it out as we dry out today. Aviation Extended Discussion... A frontal boundary should stall to the south, with high pressure wedging southward on Wednesday. Overall VFR but with flow turning more east, this could bring some MVFR/IFR ceilings, which should quickly vanish by Thursday. Next best threat for showers and storms arrives with another front Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PW/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...RAB/WP

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