Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 030154 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 954 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN A HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 950 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TIL MIDNIGHT FROM HALIFAX TO YADKIN...BUT HAVE IT DRY OVERNIGHT. UPPER VORT NOW CENTERED OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALLOWING MORE LIFT AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN VA/NC. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WHICH MODELS TRY TO TRACK SE TOWARD SE WV TOWARD MORNING...BUT FADE IT OUT BEFORE THEN. STILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... ON THURSDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 10AM AT MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM OF TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF BRING SCATTERED COVERAGE TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED EAST TO AT LEAST THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AT THIS SAME TIME THE SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF MINNESOTA TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELONGATED REGION OVER LOWER HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS...BETWEEN TWO PARTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BUT BY SATURDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGS IN AN AIR MASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +14. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON EASTERN SLOPES WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A BULK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS STILL SHOWED RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DURING THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROF HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY...AT THE SURFACE...THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT THE PART OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL BE VERY WEAK. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN WILL SET UP DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. BETTER COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SMOKYS. ATTM...THE TERMINALS IN LINE FOR AT LEAST VCSH THIS EVENING ARE LYH/DAN AND LWB. RADAR SHOWS THE BETTER CONVECTION WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG/EAST OF LYH/DAN. A SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES EAST OF CRW HEADING SE TOWARD LWB...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD 01Z...SO KEPT IT VCSH. OVERNIGHT...THE RATHER HUMID AIRMASS WITH LESS CLOUDS WILL INDUCE FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL LWB/BCB LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG IF ANY FORMS WILL BE MVFR. THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER MOUNTAINS...WITH BLF/LWB MORE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT STILL ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ATTM...HAVE THEM VCSH AFTER 18Z...AND CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR 4-6KFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EAST-WEST OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE THE LOW LVL FLOW TURN MORE EASTERLY IN TIME. AS OF NOW...THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR WORSE WITH FOG AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS IN AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW END VFR ROA/LYH/DAN. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THERE WILL BE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS...SO SUB VFR IN THESE IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING ELONGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING TAKE PLACE SO VFR SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH THE STILL A THREAT OF FOG AT NIGHT AT BCB/LWB. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...WP

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