Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161327 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 927 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front from Maine to Alabama will move southeast today and off the East Coast tonight. High pressure will cover the region Tuesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 926 AM EDT Monday... The cold front continues its march eastward into the Atlantic ocean today into tonight. High pressure will build in quickly behind the front. Made some minor adjustments in temperatures and dew points utilizing the surface obs, their trends and GLAMP for late morning into this afternoon. Will keep current ISC forecast highs for this afternoon and may modify later this morning if needed. Made minor changes to pops for late morning, because of faster timing of showers. Frost advisories looked reasonable for tonight. As of 410 AM EDT Monday... At 4AM cold front was between Roanoke and Lynchburg. Expect boundary to cross through both Lynchburg and Danville before 8AM. Band of showers was along the front with the western edge already moving out of southeast West Virginia. A wave along the front may slow the retreat of the precipitation across the piedmont this morning, but even with that feature, precipitation will be gone this afternoon. The wind had turned to the northwest behind the front with enough low level moisture for clouds to remain in the western upslope areas of southeast West Virginia into southwest Virginia this morning. A few showers are also possible before noon. Also behind the front surface dew points have dropped into the upper 40s in southeast West Virginia. This is the leading edge of a significant change in air mass. By tonight much drier air will be over the region. The wind will be gusty today at higher elevations, especially along the southern Blue Ridge from Grayson County into the northwest North Carolina mountains due a combination of a 35 knot low level jet, modest pressure rises and strong cold air advection. High pressure builds in this evening and will be centered over West Virginia by Tuesday morning. Winds will decouple in the western valleys overnight. Temperatures will drop enough for frost from the New River Valley into southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands. While there is some potential for isolated spots in the mountains to have lows around freezing, have held off on any freeze watch due to lack of areal coverage and confidence in occurrence. A frost advisory will be issued to cover the potential for frost. Have followed a non-diurnal temperature trend today. Stayed at or below cooler MET guidance for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Uneventful to say the least in the short-term. Surface high pressure will remain in control through the period with sunny days and clear cool nights. The upper flow over the CONUS is fairly zonal with the main synoptic and frontal activity across central Canada and over the Pacific Northwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Sunday... Strong, vertically stacked high pressure surface to aloft will be parked over the area through the weekend. Deep troughing in the western U.S. will teleconnect to a strong ridge in the east and support this pattern, which has been quite common during the last couple of months. The entire period is expected to be primarily cloud free and dry with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures and near normal nighttime temperatures early in the period trending toward much above normal by the weekend. Minimum temperatures Thursday will be mainly in the 40s rising to the 50s by the weekend. Maximum temperatures will start out in the 60s and 70s warming by the weekend into the 70s west to around 80 east. The next cold front to bring any chance for precipitation will approach early next week and as of now appears to have even less moisture associated with it than the current front. Hence, a long dry period expected for our region. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... At 11Z/7AM a cold front extended from the Delmarva peninsula to the Florida panhandle. Winds were from the northwest across much of Virginia, western and central North Carolina and all of West Virginia. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are likely today, especially at higher elevations. Much drier air will move in behind the front. Upslope clouds may keep stratocumulus over the mountains this morning. Clearing is expected this afternoon east of the Blue Ridge and in the mountains this evening. High confidence of VFR conditions overnight. As high pressure moves east into the area tonight, winds will diminish. Areas of frost are likely in sheltered valleys late tonight into Tuesday morning. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region for the week with VFR weather from Tuesday through Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Rainfall from the frontal boundary that is sliding through early this morning has ranged from zero across the piedmont up to 0.25 to 0.50 inches in parts of far western VA and southeast WV. Patchy amounts of roughly 0.05 to 0.20 inches have fallen across the central mountains and Blue Ridge. This may be the last measurable rainfall for the next 5 to 7 days as concerns for drought developing or worsening will remain. Several of our eastern piedmont counties are now in Moderate Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor and that is unlikely to change anytime soon with the current pattern. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ007-009>014-018>020. NC...None. WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/PM HYDROLOGY...PC

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