Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 242034 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 334 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF NOON EST SATURDAY... SURFACE LOW...992 MB...NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS COMBINATION OF WIND OVER AREAS WHERE ICE REMAINS IN THE TREES. WIND AND RESIDUAL ICING MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES. SOME MELTING OF THE ICE OCCURRED TODAY. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S SO NO PROBLEMS THERE. FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WEST VIRGINIA...THE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S...COLD AIR ADVECTION PUTTING A DRAG ON THE THERMOMETER IN SPITE OF THE SUN. FALLING DEWPOINTS ALSO PUSHED THE WETBULB BELOW ZERO. ALL ELEMENTS CONSIDERED...LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINING ICE WHICH IS STILL ON THE TREES WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE TESTED BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND FOR SUNDAY PER BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY EVENING...THUS LEAVING US WITH A DRY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS WE TRANSITION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED EARLY ON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 30S AND 40S AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. NOTICED THAT PLACES LIKE BOONE NORTH CAROLINA HAVE ALREADY SLIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...THE TEMP PROFILE AT ASU HAS STEADILY TRENDED DOWN FROM A PEAK OF 37 DEG F AT 2AM TO 23 DEG F AT 3PM. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT AIRMASS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THIS COLD POOL MOVES EAST...READINGS MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE. 85H TEMPERATURE PROGS GO FROM M6 DEG C AT TNB/BOONE THIS EVE BACK UP TO NEAR 0 DEG C BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VARIATION IN THE PATH BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO PASS OVER...OR JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A SNOW VERSUS RAIN SCENARIO WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR REGION WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREENBRIER...BATH...AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES MAY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE TWO TO THREE INCH RANGE. OTHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW TO COMMENCE AND PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. A REINFORCING SURGE OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THIS REGION. THE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD WV AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV WITH AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED DUSTING TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE. TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END IN THE WEST...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND COOLER WITH READINGS AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO READINGS AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CHICAGO AREA WITH AN APPROACHING TRAILING COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. WILL KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETUPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS LOOKED RELATIVELY DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EST SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING MVFR CIGS VCNTY OF BLF/LWB. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT IFR CIGS MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KBLF TONIGHT...BUT OPTED FOR A HIGHER CLOUD BASE ATTM SINCE NOT CONFIDENT THIS SORT OF CEILING WILL PERSIST PER BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST CONUS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING...ESP NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL STORM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...AND MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR KROA...WHICH RESIDES AT THE BASE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE AIR WILL BE MOST TURBULENT. FOR SUNDAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO MID WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE GETS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OCNL IFR DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE MVFR CIGS WILL SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. ATTM THINK CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN...WITH A HIGHER CLOUD BASE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OCNL MVFR CIGS TO PENETRATE AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY AND COLD AIR TUESDAY. MIXED PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL CLIPPER ON MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY...ANY PTYPE SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY PROVIDE A DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER PROMOTING REGION-WIDE VFR. && .EQUIPMENT...
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THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...AKA POOR MTN 162.475...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS WILL LOOK AT IT SUNDAY. TOO WINDY/ICY OF A CHALLENGE TO LOOK AT IT TODAY. ITS POSSIBLE IT MAY COME BACK UP ON ITS OWN...BUT WE THEORIZE THE ICE MAY HAVE DAMAGED EITHER THE TRANSMITTER OR THE PHONE LINE WHICH LEADS UP TO THE TRANSMITTER.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PM EQUIPMENT...PM

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