Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 151747 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1247 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... With the exception of a weak cold front bringing a chance of showers Wednesday night, fair weather will prevail across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the end of the workweek. A strong cold front will then bring more showers and windy conditions to the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 935 AM EST Wednesday... The persistent wedge will slowly weaken this morning into this afternoon. A cold front will approach form the west this afternoon and move across our region tonight. For the mid morning ISC update, adjusted cloud cover for this morning with latest Satellite images and their trends. Increased cloud cover for late morning into this afternoon, utilizing the Hires ARW- EAST and Conshort. The surface high responsible for the wedge should fade by this evening. Modified the temperatures with latest surface obs, their trends and shaped temperatures towards the NBM which captured cooler temperatures with the richer cloud cover. More changes later this morning... As of 215 AM EST Wednesday... Clouds of the low variety continue to lay across the Blue Ridge and adjacent areas this morning, roughly from Fincastle/Buchanan VA south into NC. Hi-res models such as Hi-RES ARW have a decent handle on this but even the more aggressive NAMDNG is downplaying this sky cover. Still will start to see erosion later this morning as wedge weakens, but could see NC mountains into NRV hang onto the shallow moisture into midday. The surface high fades by evening as upstream front moves toward the central Appalachians, with main forcing further north over the Great Lakes. This front should bring a band of showers to the mountains this evening, then fade east of the Blue Ridge as front stretches out and loses its deep moisture to the northeast. Thursday, some lingering upslope morning showers in WV then sunny with high pressure over the midwest moves toward our area with drier air. Enough pressure gradient between this high and the low over New England will make for a breezier day, with some gusts over 30 mph possible in the higher ridges of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures today stay on the cool side, and if clouds over the southern Blue Ridge are slower to erode, temps may not get out of the lower to mid 40s, though staying closer to MAV/MET blend with upper 40s to mid 50s areawide. Tonight, mainly clear with increasing clouds west late will render lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Thursday will be warmer in the east with mainly dry wx expected and flow becoming more downslope while the mountains stay cool. Highs will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s west, to lower to mid 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EST Wednesday High should be overhead Friday allowing for another mainly sunny and cool day including uniform highs mostly in the low/mid 50s, after morning lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Rather flat upper flow across the region to end the week will quickly transition to strong upper troffiness Saturday into Saturday night. Otherwise warm front lifts north Friday night giving way to increasing warm advection overnight including gusty southwest winds on the ridges per 30-40+ knot 850 mb jet. Moisture lacking with this feature with best lift still to the west ahead of the cold front so keeping things dry Friday night. Surface cold front likely to cross the region later Saturday with perhaps the surface wind shift along the leading edge of the associated shower band. Precip may switch to western snow showers Sat night pending how fast the cold advection behind the front catches up but iffy elsewhere outside of the higher western elevations given slower timing. Main concern will be with post frontal northwest winds as strong cold advection follows the front on 40-45 kt 850 mb cross barrier flow. However model pressure rises show an initial surge in winds as the front passes, then a more prolonged round of gusty winds Saturday night. Possible post-frontal sub-VFR ceilings into Thursday in the western Appalachians, otherwise VFR conditions.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Wednesday... Front should be east of us Sunday with breezy/windy conditions continuing. Upslope snow showers likely to linger into Sunday evening before low level moisture fades with high pressure building in from the southwest making for quiet weather into early next week. Will turn abruptly colder behind the front with highs in the 30s/40s west and only around 50 east under gusty winds Sunday. This before readings slowly rebound Monday into Tuesday to more seasonal levels as the upper trough lifts out. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1247 PM EST Wednesday... SCT to BKN MVFR clouds this afternoon into tonight. A cold front approaching from the west this afternoon will rotate east across the area tonight. The best chance for MVFR showers will occur across the west at KLWB/KBLF. Will include the mention of VCSH with frontal boundary tonight at other taf locations. Possible post-frontal sub-VFR ceilings into Thursday in the western Appalachians, otherwise VFR conditions. High confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Discussion... VFR conditions anticipated through Thursday evening. A cold front is expected to cross through the Mid Atlantic region Friday and Saturday with precipitation and strong winds both ahead of and behind the front. Gusty winds may continue into Sunday but there is large spread in the guidance at that time frame. Dry weather expected Monday into Tuesday. Scattered MVFR rain and snow showers are possible Tuesday night into West in the western Mountains.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...JH/WP LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...KK/WP

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