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181
FXUS61 KRNK 271800
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

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A cold front approaches the region on Saturday, which will bring
chances for scattered thunderstorms primarily east of the Blue
Ridge; however, isolated thunderstorms still look possible for
areas west of the Blue Ridge. The cold front looks to stall just
north of the area, which will keep much of the region under the
influence of the warm and humid airmass across the southeast.
This will keep the chances for daily showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through next Wednesday until a much stronger
cold front looks to push through the forecast area. High
pressure settling into the region mid week next week will lead
to drier conditions; however, temperatures are expected to
continue to remain seasonable.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered thunderstorms are again expected primarily east of
   the Blue Ridge on Saturday.

2) The area will continue to remain hot and humid across the
   area Saturday.

The surface high pressure that is leading to a backdoor front
that is currently draped across the Virginia Piedmont should
lift north tonight as a warm front as the surface high pressure
progresses east into the Atlantic and losses influence over the
region. As this happens a shortwave trough and associated
surface low pressure system is expected to push across
southeastern Canada during the day on Saturday. The associated
cold front is forecast to be draped across western New York and
into the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. While this will
predominantly keep most of the precipitation well to the north
and west of the region, there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms along the eastern edge of the Blue Ridge and
points east into the Piedmont on Saturday. With the repeated
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area, these
storms will continue to lead to a localized flash flood threat.
This will be especially true given storm motions will continue
to be on the slow side of around 5-15 knots.

High temperatures will climb into the low 90s across the
Piedmont, and low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1210 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

 - Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front is expected to stall along the Mason-Dixon line on
Sunday, then return northward as a warm front on Monday. With the
area remaining in the warm sector, hot and humid conditions will
continue along with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered storms each afternoon will be disorganized, but a few may
become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging wind
gusts and localize flooding.

High temperatures each afternoon will peak in the 80s across the
mountains to the low to mid 90s in the foothills and Piedmont. Dew
points will continue to run high, ranging from the mid 60s to lower
70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1210 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Slightly cooler and drier Wednesday and Thursday.

A cold front will move from the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning to the
VA/NC coast Wednesday morning. This front will bring an organized
line of convection across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Dry and cooler high pressure will follow the frontal passage
Wednesday and Thursday. Another front will slide across the region
Friday, but with limited moisture, showers and thunderstorms will be
sub-severe.

High temperatures will ranging in the 80s Tuesday, then cool down a
couple of degrees on Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually warm
each day, ending the workweek in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms look likely again to
impact LYH, BCB, ROA, and LWB this afternoon and evening.
Confidence is not as high at DAN and BLF; however, vcts has been
included regardless given the chance still exists. These
thunderstorms if in the vicinity of terminals may lead to sudden
wind shifts and sudden wind speed increases. These storms may
also lead to brief periods of MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs.

Currently, a backdoor front has pushed south into central
Virginia. This front has lead to MVFR CIGs to develop at LYH,
which are expected to linger for at least another couple hours
before some additional clearing and thunderstorm development
begins. After the thunderstorms this evening, MVFR to LIFR CIGs
and VSBYs do look to develop out of northern and central
Virginia and push south, with all terminals likely seeing
restrictions except for DAN and BLF. These restrictions should
lift again by the 12-13 UTC timeframe for all terminals.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog. A
front tracking in by Tuesday will bring a better coverage of
storms and better chance of sub-VFR. This front should lead to
VFR conditions through the end of next week outside of any river
valley fog that may develop near BCB and LWB.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-013-014-
     018>020-022>024-033>035-045-046.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-044-507-
     508.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB