Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 011901 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING NARROW RIBBONS OF CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SW TO NE ORIENTED STORM SEGMENTS. TRAINING ALONG THIS ACROSS THE MTNS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT THE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE MOVING THESE ALONG FASTER. THEREFORE...NO PLANS AS OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE INCH HAIL AND MICROBURSTS. THE CULPRIT FOR THIS IS THE UPPER ENERGY OVER KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE INTO THE MTNS COMBINED WITH HIGHER PWATS DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF IT. THIS SCENARIO WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND MAIN SHOWER THREAT WILL LIFT NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN COULD SEE SOME FOG IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THOUGH RAIN INDUCED FOG WILL BE AROUND. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY THOUGH THE ENERGY ALOFT TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TO ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS... BUT STILL WEST WILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS MAY ENHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS CUT BACK TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WEST...TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY... DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW. THIS LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MADE PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FEATURE. ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS EASTERN FLANKS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL...WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE....A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HEAD SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...GENERATING A LATE SPRINGTIME WEDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STABLE WITHIN THIS AREA...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FEATURE WILL HAVE MADE THE GREATEST INROADS INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL ALOFT...DESPITE RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS IS THANKS TO MOIST LOW LEVELS AND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE ERODING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS STILL AROUND. MAIN ISSUE REGARDING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL BE FOG/LOW CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE MINOR CLEARING. THINKING THE MTNS WILL SEE IFR OR WORSE TOWARD MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING CIGS/VSBYS WILL MAINLY STAY OVER 3KFT AND ABOVE 6SM...BUT AT TIMES WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECT 1-3KFT CIGS AND 1-3SM VSBYS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA BY MIDDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING...WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR OR WORSE VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS WITH FOG. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/WP

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