Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 100945 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 445 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES.TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 445 AM EST TUESDAY... POSTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO CAPTURE WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 5 BELOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AFTER THE FIRST ROBUST SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPSLOPE LIFT MAY HOLD INTO TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO AS MUCH AS 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY. MODERATE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE....THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY... DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BELOW 500 DM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHWEST JET OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. VORTICITY ADVECTION AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 4KM AND 12KM NAM AS WELL AS THE GFS SUGGEST SOME BIG BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO SEE THE CLEARING. CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE ON THE WESTERN WIDE OF THE DEEP TROUGH TRACKS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS WAVE AND WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD 850 MB AIR IN THE -18 TO -20 RANGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SHORT WAVE GOES BY ON FRIDAY...EVEN COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ECMWF 00Z RUN NOT AS COLD AS 00Z/08 RUN. LOW LEVEL JET ALSO PICKS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 150 PM EST TUESDAY... BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS HAVE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -22 TO -24 RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER TROF MOVES NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. MODELS THEN HAVE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF REACHING THE AREA FOR MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1145 PM EST TUESDAY... KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR IN BLF WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES GETTING MODERATE TO HEAVY. SEEMS LWB/BCB WILL STAY MVFR...WITH BCB GOING VFR AFTER 12Z WED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES BUT A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER COULD BREACH THE NEW RVR VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS EXPECTED OVER 20 KTS AT LEAST INTO ROA/BCB DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY WEAKEN AT TIMES WED EVENING. EXPECT VFR ROA EAST...WITH SKIES BKN V SCT THIS MORNING THEN CLEARING OUT MORE BY DAYS END. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY AREA OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE WEST...UPSLOPE...SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT KBLF/KLWB WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA/NC. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007- 009>012-015-019-020. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044- 507. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...AMS/RAB AVIATION...JM/RCS/WP

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