-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 160114
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 850 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING
AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND BEST SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH ABOUT 10-11 PM BEFORE THE
GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE KEEPING THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING GIVEN ONE MORE EXPECTED SURGE IN SPEEDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED TO
THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE REMOVING ANY LINGERING POPS. IN THE
WEST...BEST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAINLY NW GREENBRIER WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. THUS LOWERED POPS AND SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THERE BUT
HOLDING ONTO LOW CLOUDS LONGER PER LATEST MODELS AND TENDENCY FOR
NW FLOW TO LINGER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
FLURRY MAY SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE BETTER DRYING DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO CLEAR.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST WHERE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO
IF NOT A BIT BELOW FREEZING MOST SPOTS PENDING JUST HOW FAST WINDS
DIMINISH WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL ALMOST DAWN. OTRW RUNNING WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING TO LOW/MID 20S
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SWING TO TO
THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN
MODIFY TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS
THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND
SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE
COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY.
WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE
PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT
WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT
AT THIS TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR SWINGS IN FROM THE SW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SE WVA LOCATIONS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS. POST
FRONTAL RAINFALL REMAINS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST BUT STILL APPEARS
MOST PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET IF NOT SOONER. OTRW EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CLOUD BASES THIS EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXCLUDING BLF/LWB SCATTERING
OUT OR GOING TOTALLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. APPEARS MVFR TO VFR CIGS
MAY HOLD ESPCLY AROUND BLF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PER
LATEST NAM. NW WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT
TOWARD DAWN. APPEARS COULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS IN A SMALL
WINDOW THIS EVENING ESPCLY AROUND ROA-BCB AS SKIES CLEAR AND
STRONGER MIXING DEVELOPS WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT
CROSSING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NE FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK.
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH
LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE
AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL
SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...

APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F.
DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F.
BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ014>017-022.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...KM/WP
CLIMATE...JC/KM