-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 241750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEBRIS CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN
THESE AREAS...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THIN ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT JUMP UPWARD ONCE
THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE READINGS THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO
HIGH. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
FIRST...THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE VALLEYS APPROACH
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...SKY GRIDS WILL ADVERTISE
30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER TODAY...INCREASING TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FROM A COLD FRONT WELL UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT PLAINS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR AS NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR
ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE FALLING TOWARD 20-30
PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND FUEL MOISTURE HAS RAISED
CONCERNS WITH ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. AT REQUEST OF THE VIRGINIA
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY AND IN COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM
EDT TODAY. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER LATER TONIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW