Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 061736 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 136 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS 1205 PM EDT MONDAY EDT... ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS AXIS FURTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH LEANED CLOSEST TO 14Z HRRR. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT... UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT WSR-88D TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WITH HIGH PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. RAISED QPF FOR TODAY. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY... AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY... NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT. POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS. BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING... THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF LYNCHBURG. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY... EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS. WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT 500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA. FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY... TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY... MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO PENNNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ARE LWB...BCB AND LYH AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION PER BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...KK/WP

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