Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241750 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 150 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1155 AM EDT THURSDAY... DEBRIS CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THIN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT JUMP UPWARD ONCE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE READINGS THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT FIRST...THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE VALLEYS APPROACH THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE DEBRIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...SKY GRIDS WILL ADVERTISE 30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER TODAY...INCREASING TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY... A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY. THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE GFS. WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY... THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE AREA FROM A COLD FRONT WELL UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT PLAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MVFR AS NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY... CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE FALLING TOWARD 20-30 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND FUEL MOISTURE HAS RAISED CONCERNS WITH ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. AT REQUEST OF THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY AND IN COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM EDT TODAY. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER LATER TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PM/PW SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PW FIRE WEATHER...PW

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