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404
FXUS61 KRNK 021421
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1021 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east keeping a few showers and storms
around today mainly east of the mountains. Slightly cooler and
less humid air will move into the region by Thursday, followed
by a seasonally warm holiday weekend. No rain is expected over
the 4th of July weekend, but it looks like the typical
summertime daily afternoon thunderstorm pattern returns for next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1020 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers/storms will linger mainly east of the mountains today
as front slows up.

2) Drier air will be moving in from the northwest this
afternoon into tonight.

Surface cold front extends from ACY-DAN-ATL...this feature
slowly moving east. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are
ongoing along and east of the front.

Water Vapor imagery show significant drying aloft taking place
west of the Appalachians with regional 12Z soundings
PBZ/ILN/OHX upstream of our forecast area now observing PWAT
values under an inch. East of the mountains the atmosphere is
still soupy, so clouds showers still in the forecast until
transition of airmass can take place.

For this afternoon, forecast reflects scattered showers and
storms along/east of the Blue Ridge with higher pops along/east
of US Highway 29 from Lynchburg to Danville, then south into
the northern Piedmont of NC...closer to the frontal boundary.
Main threat for severe weather or flooding will be along and
east of the front...or mainly southeast of our CWA today.

The front drifts to the coast tonight. Dry air aloft should
gradually overtake the area, so expect activity to diminish
fairly quickly this evening.

With clearing skies tonightt and somewhat cooler temps and wet
ground, not out of the question to have areas of fog form, and
may be dense, especially in the mountain valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Expect dry and seasonably warm 4th.

Surface high slides across the area this period with 5h ridge
working in from the west. Should keep us dry with temperatures
running around 5 degrees above normal. This is going to provide
for good weather for any fireworks activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures and humidity creep back up into next week

2) Storm coverage will be scattered early next week.

Surface high pressure stays in the general area into early
next week but slides south ahead of northern stream system by
Tuesday. Flow turns more southwest increasing RH, and the chance
of diurnal storms. With high pressure aloft into Monday storm
coverage will be widely scattered and temps will be about 5-10
degrees above normal. A front pushes toward the mid-Atlantic
Tuesday which bring a jump in pops to better chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 648 AM EDT Wednesday...

Expect a few showers/storms near LYH/DAN today, otherwise
forecast should be dry. Any sub-VFR conditions at the start
should improve to VFR later this morning, and remain that
through much of the TAF period. Could see some fog late tonight
into Thu morning especially at LWB, so have LIFR vsbys there as
usually occurs after it clears out and the ground is wet in the
summer. At the moment kept it out of BCB but not out of the
question fog forms here as well late tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...CG/WP
LONG TERM...CG/WP
AVIATION...PM/WP