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781
FXUS61 KRNK 250709
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
309 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next
several days resulting in hot and humid conditions. The High
will gradually weaken over time allowing for instability to
increase. As this occurs, expect development of scattered
afternoon and evening thundershowers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Heat continues
2) Watch for Widely Scattered Afternoon Thundershowers
3) Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across NC

High pressure that has been centered over the area the last two
days is expected to slightly break down as an upper level low
pushes west into Florida and Georgia. This effectively creates a
mid and level convergence zone along and south of the VA/NC
state line by this afternoon. Given the abundance of low level
moisture, dewpoints in the 70s, look for robust thunderstorm
development over the Carolinas into the southern Appalachians.

Model forecasts suggest that low-level convergence will
lead to convective development over far southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina around midday. This convection is expected
to increase in coverage, moving south to southwestward across the
Carolinas and may become organized into a line as it propagates
to the south and out of the forecast area this evening.
Combination of both high CAPE and DCAPE suggests environment
favorable for damaging wind gusts.

Primary focus for storms today is over the Carolinas where a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms has been
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center. Farther north into
the Virginias, the risk is marginal (level 1 of 5) with the
expectation the storm coverage will be less organized and more
pulse in nature. Some of the CAMs suggest a large portion of
our western CWA, west of the Blue Ridge may not experience any
storms today, subsidence from the upper ridge of high pressure
still holding its ground. As such have a tight gradient with
respect to POPs, ranging from 20 percent in the Greenbrier
Valley of WV to near 50 percent in the NC Piedmont and NC High
Country.

Temperatures will surge once again into the mid to upper 90s
east of the Blue Ridge, and surface dewpoints will continue to
maintain values in the low to mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge,
resulting in another sultry afternoon for the piedmont. A Heat
Advisory for the foothills of the Blue Ridge and an Extreme
Heat Warning for the piedmont south and east of Danville remains
in effect for these weather conditions...heat index values
ranging from 102-108 in the foothills and 106 to 112 in the
piedmont.

Tonight, expecting another muggy night with dewpoints remaining
elevated. Temperatures may cool down a little quicker this
evening pending thunderstorm coverage, but still remaining warm
as a whole for the overnight. Fog coverage may be a little
higher tonight, especially where it rains today in addition to
the usual valley locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures continue, with increasing humidity
through the end of the work week.

2. Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, highest
chances for more widespread coverage on Thursday.

Upper level ridging will hold fast over much of the eastern US
through the later half of the work week. A frontal boundary starts
to drop southward towards northern VA by Thursday, while flow around
a surface high in the Atlantic transports more moisture into the
region, leading to increasing dewpoints and humidity through the end
of the week. The ridge will start to slowly flatten and weaken by
the end of the work week, however, the local forecast area will
still be underneath the ridge and above normal temperatures will
continue through the period. With increasing moisture, chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also increase through the
period. Thursday looks to be the day with the most widespread
coverage at this time, as a weak upper level low moves into the
southeastern US and the front moves closer to the area, providing
some additional forcing for convective development. With plenty of
heating, expecting there to be more than enough instability
available, though shear will be weak, around 15 to 25 knots of 0-6km
shear along the northwest NC mountains, and thus there is a Marginal
Risk of severe storms areawide.

As moisture continues to pool under the ridge, and the front stalls
over the northern Mid Atlantic, chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue for Friday and Saturday, especially
along and west of the Blue Ridge as the topography provides some
lift to trigger convection. Westerly flow at the surface may help to
limit coverage of storms to the east. PWATs are well into the 90th
percentile relative to climatology through the period, so although
not all locations will see showers, some of those showers could be
efficient rain producers with higher rain rates possible.

Temperatures will remain above normal, with Thursday looking to be
the hottest day of the period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot temperatures continue through the beginning of the week.

2. Continued chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
highest chances on Tuesday.

Generally upper ridging will remain in place over the eastern US
through the period, though the northern edge will continue to
flatten as some weak shortwaves travel through the the north central
US and into the northeast. Plentiful moisture and heating will keep
the area hot and humid through the period. With the front lifting
northward and farther away from the area over the weekend, showers
and storms will be more scattered in nature, and not as much
coverage is expected. A stronger cold front approaches the area from
the west Tuesday, which will provide a greater focus for
thunderstorm development by the afternoon hours. Some relief from
the heat looks to follow behind that frontal passage, but until the
middle of the next work week, above normal temperatures and
increased humidity will persist.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period for
all terminals.

Exceptions being river valley fog at LWB during the early
morning hours, with roughly 3-6 hours of MVFR to LIFR
restrictions forecast during the early morning hours from 09-12
UTC. Elsewhere, brief MVFR vsby with tempo 3-5sm br/hz until
about 12Z, then bump to P6sm with daytime mixing.

Unstable conditions expected to lead to widely scattered
thundershowers mid-late afternoon...persisting until sunset.
Coverage and lack of organization not enough to place in tafs
other than vcts. Greatest coverage expected after 20Z favoring
areas along and east of Blue Ridge.

Winds expected to remain light and variable. Potential for 25-45
kt gusts near thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into the weekend.
We will be in a typical summer pattern for the most part with
scattered storms in the afternoon/evening followed by fog
potential at night where it rain and near rivers/lakes.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ022>024-033>035-043>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ046-047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ003>005-019-020.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ006.
WV...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM