Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251754 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 154 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY... THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. CONTINUING TO WATCH EARLY MORNING FOG BURN OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CRAIG...BOTETOURT AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LUNCHTIME. ONCE FOG IS GONE...HEATING WILL KICK IN QUICKLY AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THESE AREAS TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS. AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY... MSAS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING HELPING PUSH LEFTOVER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG NW NC RIDGES...AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY... OTRW BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT UNDER LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE 85H COOL POOL AND SEE NE FLOW...EXPECT MAINLY UNIFORM HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BRIDGES SOUTH AND ABOUT OVERHEAD LATE. THIS SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR TO ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MOS PUSHING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HOWEVER SINCE HAVE WET GROUND AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL STAY A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AT THIS POINT BUT STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH AND SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HEADS SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON INCREASING SW-W FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS BEING CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE WASHED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE SETUP POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD AGAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SW LATE FRIDAY BUT IFFY GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A WEAK LEFTOVER SURFACE FEATURE. A BIT STRONGER 5H TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER SUNDAY PER LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER GFS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT WHATS LEFT OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. GULF FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE STRONG TO THE WEST WITH MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ARRIVING AT LEAST OVER THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TEMPS APPEAR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT COULD BE A BIT COOLER UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN QUIET WEATHER...LIGHT NE/E WINDS...AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL INVOLVE WHICH LOCATIONS SEE FOG/STRATUS AND HOW MUCH. VFR SCT/BKN CIGS INTO THIS EVENING...THEN EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. BELIEVE LESS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL CONFINE MOST FOG/STRATUS TO TRADITIONAL AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SC DEVELOPING AS A PLUME OF HIGHER RH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND CURRENT CU FIELD SHOWN ON VIS SAT PICS OVER ERN VA VALIDATES THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH VFR CU THEREAFTER. KLYH ASOS IS FULLY FUNCTIONAL ONCE AGAIN SO TAF IS BACK TO NORMAL. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF EACH MORNING DUE TO MOIST SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND WEAKEN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEEKS END WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR EXPECTED FOR NOW.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY... THE ASOS TEMPERATURE AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS INOP DUE TO A BOARD FAILURE. TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ON THIS MONDAY. TOWER OBSERVERS ARE AUGMENTING DURING NORMAL SERVICE HOURS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/NF NEAR TERM...JH/NF SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...MBS/NF EQUIPMENT...WP

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