-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070527
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1227 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREA NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO WEST VIRGINIA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...

AT 03Z...SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEEPEN AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FEATURE LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
12Z...BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST.

00Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER...AND ISOTHERMAL...MEANING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
SNOW AND/OR SLEET IN OUR NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MPING
AND SPOTTER REPORTS CONFIRM PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS SLEET IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO WHILE SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FEEL
SLEET WILL EAT INTO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...WITH THE TRENDS
IN THE MODELS FOR COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SNOW/SLEET OR
SLEET WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FREEZING RAIN THREAT
HAS LESSENED...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RAP/18Z GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL USHER IN WARM NOSE OF WARM AIR. FOR NOW
THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA...BUT
FAR SOUTHWEST VA...GRAYSON AND CARROLL COUNTIES WILL NEED TO
MONITORED CAREFULLY IF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS THIS FAR WEST.

WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE LAST TO WARM
UP...AND THUS MAINTAIN THE WINTRY MIX LONGER AS COMPARED TO OTHER
PARTS OF THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOOKING TO FRIDAY EVENING...ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED GENERALLY EAST OF A DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE...AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO EXIT THE FORECAST REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE SPEEDS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER. THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH MORE
SPRING LIKE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRAIL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY.
WHILE COOLER...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM IS WARM...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST HELPING TO SHOVE H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE NEAR THE ARKLATEX TO
FORM A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -18C AFTER THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AT H85.
REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SE WEST VA. ATTM...NEXT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1225 AM EST FRIDAY...

WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THIS MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY NOON...THEN THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.

P-TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW THROUGH 10Z FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AROUND 10Z...WARM AIR ENTERS ALOFT TO TRANSITION SNOW OVER TO
SLEET...THEN TO FREEZING RAIN. DANVILLE WILL BE THE FIRST AIRPORT TO
SEE THE CHANGE OVER. FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL START TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN ON THE OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE AROUND 13Z AT BLUEFIELD AND
LEWISBURG. WEDGE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S FOR
BLACKSBURG AND ROANOKE THROUGH 15Z...LYNCHBURG INTO 19Z. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION COMES LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...SYSTEM EXITS OUT TO SEA BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z SAT.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.

POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-
     009>018-022-023-033-034-045-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ032-043-044-
     058.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...RCS