Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 191927 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 327 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A front extended from New England through the Ohio Valley to a low over the Southern Plains. This low will track across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys by Friday morning and will push a strong cold front across much of the eastern United States Thursday night and Friday. High pressure build in behind the low on Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday... Little change in the 500MB pattern is expected tonight with the upper ridge over the southeast United States. Heights begin to fall on Thursday. Surface front stalled from the Ohio Valley to a low over the Southern Plains will lift north as warm front late tonight and on Thursday while the low crosses through the Ohio Valley. Clouds along the front will cover some of the forecast area north of a Lewisburg to Lynchburg line tonight...before lifting north out of the area by Thursday morning. Models were in decent agreement with the timing of clouds and precipitation for Thursday afternoon, so have slowed down arrival time of the probability of precipitation in the west until after 5PM. Temperatures will be mild overnight. Stayed close to lows from Wednesday or a couple of degrees warmer. Thursday will be the final day of above normal temperatures. Enough sun to again have a sharp rise in temperatures in the morning, but afternoon clouds in the west will limit much additional heating. Went slightly below guidance over the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday... Digging short wave energy will sharpen the upper trof considerably as it approaches the region from the west and push a strong cold front through the area. With much of the flow parallel to the front and best dynamics shearing off to our north it will be a slow FROPA west to east from late Thursday night through Friday morning, respectively. This will give us gradually deteriorating conditions through early Thursday night with the best chances for precipitation looking to hold off until after Midnight for most of the area. Will also include a slight chance for embedded thunder mainly west as steeper lapse rates aloft may tap some of the dynamic energy before it shears off to our north to boost convective elements a bit. As a large area of high pressure over the Mississippi valley ushers in significantly colder air behind the front, the low level flow will become energized and make for blustery conditions for Friday and into the weekend. There will also be the prospect for the first snowflakes of the season Friday night and possibly again on Saturday night in upslope flow at the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge but nothing of any significance expected. On a related note, low temperatures at or below freezing may well end the growing season for some higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge Friday night. Expect temperatures west of the Ridge to be falling throughout Friday, then begin falling across the piedmont by the afternoon. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 40s/lower 50s west to around 60 east, with the blustery wind making it feel even colder. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday... The upper pattern will be trending toward reestablishment of an upper ridge over the eastern US through the middle of next week. This will generally keep our weather quiet and dry through the period. Return flow around high pressure to our south will push some warmer temperatures into the region for Sunday and Monday. A fast moving short wave will zip through the Great Lakes region and drive a low through New England. This will swing a weak cold front through the region later on Monday afternoon with any precipitation expected to remain off to our north. Cooler high pressure will then build in on Tuesday and take up a wedge position east of the Appalachians by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the southeast states through today. A cold front will approach from the north late in the day, but stall before moving into the area, then retreat to the north tonight and Thursday. Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF valid period. Clouds close to the front, north of a KLWB to KLYH line will have ceilings of 4000-6000 feet and possible a few light showers. Winds will be light this evening, then increase out of the south-southwest late tonight and on Thursday. Higher elevations may have wind gusts up to 20 knots Thursday. Medium to high confidence that conditions will remain VFR through the 18Z end of the TAF forecast period. Extended aviation discussion... Showers will arrive in the mountains after 00Z/8PM Thursday and spread east across the region. The best chance of precipitation will be from midnight Thursday night through noon on Friday. This will be the most likely period of MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. A much stronger cold front passes through the region Thursday night and Friday. A southwest to northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across the region with gusty winds behind the front continuing into Friday night and possibly Saturday. Areas of sub- VFR conditions will likely accompany the front and precipitation. A return to VFR conditions is expected for most areas Friday night into Saturday. The exception will be western parts of the region where a healthy northwest upslope flow, and lingering low level moisture, will prolong an IFR/MVFR ceiling during this time period. Even the mountain areas will become VFR again for Sunday and Monday. && .CLIMATE... As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday... Record maximum temperatures... Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...DS/MBS AVIATION...AMS/PM CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.