Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 190859 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 359 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...WE CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK AND HEAD IN TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM EST WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH WILL BE DRIFTING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. QUITE A GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY...SETTING UP A HUGE SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE SURGE WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WE WILL SEE SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD BIT WARMER TODAY THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL SWING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WINDS DO NOT COME AROUND TO A VERY FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WORK WITH TO GENERATE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EST WEDNESDAY... MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A REFRESHING SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT NOT ARCTIC LIKE MONDAY/TUESDAY. 8H FLOW IS MORE SITUATED FROM THE WEST SO NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. STILL A SHORTWAVE IN THE 5H FLOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD THU MORNING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER AS WELL AS THE MTNS OF TAZEWELL NORTH TO GREENBRIER. STILL ONLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING. WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM NOT AS STRONG EITHER AND LOOKING AT GUSTS MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO AROUND 40 NEW RIVER VALLEY...THE MID TO UPPER 40S FROM ROA EAST TO LYH AND AROUND 50S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT. THE 8H FLOW TURNS MORE NW THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE IS SCANT ASIDE FROM CLOUDS ON THE LOWER DECK OVER THE MTNS. MAINLY WILL SEE FLURRIES IN THE WRN GREENBRIER AREA LATE THU NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION IN THE MTNS WITH MID 20S EAST. 1030 HIGH MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/VA PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SE WV...TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF VA/NC TO LOWER TO MID 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO THE PIEDMONT WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SETTING UP INTO THE MTNS. LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE LOW TEMPS WILL BE EARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH STEADY TEMPS LATE AS SOUTH WINDS BRING WAA LATE. LOWS FURTHER EAST WERE LOWERED GIVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 20S OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO THE MTN VALLEYS OF THE WEST...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. BY SATURDAY WAA ENSUES WITH SOME HIGH LVL MOISTURE ENTERING THE CWA. WILL STILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT SE TO SOUTH FLOW WITH STRONG HIGH OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME OF THE MTNS IN FAR SW VA ARE IN LINE FOR BETTER MIXING/WAA AND COULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EST WEDNESDAY... LOOKING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS COOLER MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO LIMIT HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY DURING LATE EVENING... MAKING FOR A STRONG RETURN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS... WHERE THE HIGHER SHEAR AND HELICITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUPPORTING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS LOCATED. WITH RAIN ENTERING EARLY IN THE DAY...AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND EXPECT STRONGER HEATING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S WEST TO AROUND 70 EAST. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT TO RETURN OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL...HOWEVER THE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1225 AM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSIT OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE 15KT TO 20KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE VFR...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 355 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS STAFFED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...PC

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