Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 140754
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
354 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures will cover the
region through tonight. A front will move from the Central
United States to the Mid-Atlantic Friday, and bring the
possibility of showers, as well as a few thunderstorms, to the
region. Another front, with limited moisture, will cross the
region Sunday. This system will bring colder temperatures, as
well as mountain rain and snow showers to start the new
workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Key Messages:
- Dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures continue
through tonight.
- Shower and thunderstorm probabilities return Friday.
Early morning weather maps showed surface high pressure centered
near Elkins, WV, with shortwave ridging aloft. These features
resulted in a quiet night across the forecast area, at least
weatherwise, with only some (thin) passing high-level clouds noted
on the satellite imagery blowing off the convection well to our west.
Synoptically speaking, an upper low is expected to wobble into and
around southern California over the next day (or three). This is
expected to shift the shortwave ridge axis near our area slightly
eastward as the surface high moves offshore. The result will be a
strengthening southwesterly flow in the boundary layer and aloft,
which will result in this afternoon`s high temperatures being some
20 degrees above climatological normal for this time of year.
("Normal" highs for this time of year are generally in the 50s.)
The frontal system to affect our region is forecast to move into the
Ohio Valley tonight, driven not by the upper low wobbling near Yuma,
but primarily by an upper trough digging into the northern Plains.
Probabilistically speaking, showers could move into Southeast West
Virginia as early as 5-6 a.m., and the forecast accounts for this.
However, it`s more likely that most of the showers will move into
our western areas around mid-morning Friday.
Forecast soundings and high-resolution CAMs indicate paltry amounts
of instability (at best) across our region. Kinematic fields appear
to be sufficient for limited convective organization, with most of
the shear focused near the front. This leads me to believe that the
thunderstorm potential with this event should be limited, and mostly
over the Piedmont given the projected timing of the front moving
across the forecast area.
Even with the increased cloud cover and precipitation Friday, above
normal high temperatures should again be seen.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Rain diminishes by Saturday morning, dry until late Sunday
in the mountains.
2. Above normal temperatures through the weekend, but cold
overnight lows Sunday night.
By the start of this forecast period, a cold front will be stretched
across the area, and much of the eastern US and south into the Gulf
Coast states. Rain showers will be ongoing, but coming to an end by
Saturday morning. Some thunderstorms are possible Friday night,
moreso over the Piedmont during this time with some greater
instability forecast in this area. However, westerly flow will help
to limit the coverage of showers out in the east. The higher
rainfall totals will be west of the Blue Ridge, up to a half an inch
to three quarters of an inch in the west, and then up to a tenth in
the Piedmont and Southside Virginia. By Saturday morning, the
precipitation will be out of the area, so Saturday will be dry and
warmer than normal, though a few degrees cooler than Friday.
By the end of the weekend, a surface low tracks across southern
Canada and the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front progged to
cross the eastern US, while a southern stream frontal system
develops over the southern US and Gulf Coast. The deeper moisture
continues to look more over the southeastern states, and further to
the northeast for the system to the north. Therefore, thinking
precipitation coverage over the area will be limited to the favored
northwest flow upslope areas of southeast West Virginia and
southwest Virginia. With colder air pushing in behind the front on
Sunday, there may be a mix of rain and snow showers Sunday night
into Monday in the far western mountains. Daytime highs on Sunday
will be warm, since the frontal passage looks to be later Sunday
night, but behind that, overnight lows will drop back towards
freezing.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Colder temperatures and gusty winds to start the work week.
2. Mostly dry weather expected through midweek.
The work week will start with a fairly amplified upper level
pattern, with a deep trough over the eastern US and a closed upper
low situated over the southwest US. A much colder airmass will fill
into the region behind the frontal passage Sunday night. Strong cold
air advection and pressure rises Tuesday will lead to gusty
northwest winds for the beginning of the work week. This
northwest flow may bring enough moisture from the Great Lakes
for some upslope rain and snow showers, mainly over southeast
West Virginia, Monday and possibly Tuesday, but any
precipitation will be likely be light. Surface high pressure
will develop over the central US and expand towards the east
coast by Tuesday, then become more centered over the southeast
by midweek. The high will keep weather dry and quiet for most of
the area, outside of those light mountain showers. Monday night
will be the coldest night of the period, with lows dropping
back towards below freezing. Tuesday will start a warming trend,
with temperatures warming back towards seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Flight categories will remain VFR across area terminals through
15/0600. Some thin Cs from convection to our W may be seen, mainly
after 14/1800 UTC, but no impacts to aviation are anticipated. Wind
speeds will become SW and increase to 5-10 kts. this afternoon.
A few -SHRA may be seen across SE WV terminals after 15/0900 as a
cold front approaches from the W. However, the probability of this
impacting aviation before 15/1200 UTC is low and no restrictions to
aviation will be advertised at this time.
OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday and Friday night: Sub-VFR flight categories are expected due
to low CIGs/reduced VSBYs as a cold front brings SHRA/TSRA to the
region.
Saturday: Flight restrictions will be possible W of the Blue Ridge
due to lingering low CIGs. Otherwise, flight categories should
improve to VFR.
Sunday: Flight restrictions will be possible W of the Blue Ridge due
to lower CIGs and another passing cold front.
Monday: Flight restrictions remain possible, mainly W of the Blue
Ridge due to lower CIGs and upslope precipitation.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
High pressure will allow dry conditions to continue across the
region through tonight. Minimum afternoon relative humidity
values today should be greater than what was observed yesterday,
with values between 25-30% across the Piedmont, and 30-35% along
and west of the Blue Ridge.
The next chance of wetting rain will come Friday and Friday
night as a cold front moves across the region. Rain will likely
begin Friday morning west of the Blue Ridge, but may not reach
the Piedmont until the afternoon. Rainfall amounts between up to
a third of an inch will be possible in the mountains, with
around a tenth of an inch forecast for much of the Piedmont.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DB
NEAR TERM...DB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB