Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 302012 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 312 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross our area this evening and be in the far western Atlantic by Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the area on Friday and prevail through at least Saturday. Our next potential weather maker will move into the region late Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front extended south from the thumb of Michigan south into Alabama. In advance of the front, a swath of showers had its western edge in eastern Kentucky, and its eastern edge about half-way across the forecast area. This area of showers will continue to make slow progression eastward as we head into the evening hours. Arrival time of the first near a Reidsville, NC to Buckingham, VA line will be around 500 PM to 600 PM, with the bulk of the rain arriving a couple hours later. Through the evening, this band of precipitation will continue heading eastward through the area, with the back edge exiting the eastern portion of the area around 1200 AM or 100 AM Thursday. The actual cold front will cross the area two to three hours after the conclusion of the main line of precipitation. Isolated showers may accompany the front, but be limited to primarily western parts of the region. In the wake of the cold front, anticipate northwest winds in prevail. These winds will have the impact of creating subsidence east of the crest of the Blue Ridge, resulting in decreasing cloud cover heading into Thursday morning. The same northwest, upslope winds, will have the impact of maintaining cloud cover across the mountains, along with some isolated rain/snow showers across parts of southeast West Virginia heading into Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight are forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the mountains and mid 40s to near 50 across the Piedmont. The highest elevations of southeast West Virginia will experience lows in the low to mid 30s. This will be the area for some rain/snow showers very late tonight into Thursday morning. On Thursday, northwest winds will continue all while drier air works its way into the region. Skies will be mostly clear to clear across the Piedmont. Mountain locations will experience a trend of decreasing cloud cover from east to west. Areas between roughly Bluefield and Lewisburg, WV may be cloudy all day. Lingering isolated upslope rain/snow showers will be possible across western Greenbrier County. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s across the mountains and mid 50s to near 60 across the Piedmont. The western, higher ridges of Greenbrier County, WV may only climb into the mid to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure will build east from lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Appalachians Thursday night into Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the mid 20s in the northwest mountains to the lower 30s in the Piedmont. A weak shortwave will rotate around the upper low on Friday. This may produce a brief period of snow showers across the northern Alleghanys, mainly north of the RNK CWA. High temperatures Friday will vary from the lower 30s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the Piedmont. High pressure will build east into our area Friday night. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 20s in the northern mountains to the lower 30s in the Piedmont.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... The challenge in the forecast remains the southern stream system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. The surface low will lift north into Louisiana by Sunday and reach the South Carolina coast by Sunday night. In the westerly flow aloft, the northern stream system will slide east from the Great Lakes Sunday into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temperatures hovering from the mid 20s to the lower 30s and 850mb temperatures struggling to rise above zero. At this time, will hold with a rain and snow mix for Saturday night into Sunday morning. There may also be some pockets of IP. At any rate, ECMWF and GFS, warm air will begin to surge northward Sunday changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. Will have to watch for an "in-situ" wedge keeping the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and hard for the models to capture. Looks like Sunday high temperatures should climb to the mid 30s in the mountains to the mid 40s in the Piedmont. By Sunday night into Monday, the bulk of the moisture pushes south of our region. A wavy frontal boundary will wonder across the Southeast States Monday into Tuesday. Another frontal system approaches from the central U.S. Monday and lifts northward into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. Questions arrive further in the extended periods about Wednesday with ECMWF curving out a low off the North Carolina coast while the GFS is less progressive. After a seasonably chilly/slightly below normal period through the weekend, expect a return to milder temperatures early next week as heights build aloft across the Southeast. A cold front will sweep east across the region on Thursday with colder temperatures arriving for the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 PM EST Wednesday... An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to make gradual progress eastward through the region this afternoon and early evening. Ceiling in and near the region of precipitation will be mainly MVFR with pockets of IFR. East of the precipitation, VFR ceilings will prevail. Visibilities within the precipitation will be mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR. The area of showers is preceding a cold front. This front is expected to cross the area this evening. In its wake, look for winds to become northwest. This will place subsidence across areas east of the crest of the Blue Ridge, and gradual clearing is expected through the night. Across the mountains, residual moisture will help maintain MVFR ceilings with some isolated to scattered rain/snow showers across mainly areas along and west of a KBLF-KLWB line. Thursday morning, drier air will work its way into the area, slowly eroding the cloud cover from east to west. Extended aviation discussion... Thursday afternoon, pockets of MVFR ceiling will continue across the mountains, but these will trend to VFR by the late afternoon with decreasing coverage. VFR conditions are expected at most locations through at least Saturday. Sunday into Monday our next weather system will move into the are. Confidence in timing is not high at this point, but its influence increases the probability of sub-VFR conditions for parts of the area during this time frame. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...DS

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