Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 140754 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 354 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures will cover the region through tonight. A front will move from the Central United States to the Mid-Atlantic Friday, and bring the possibility of showers, as well as a few thunderstorms, to the region. Another front, with limited moisture, will cross the region Sunday. This system will bring colder temperatures, as well as mountain rain and snow showers to start the new workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Key Messages: - Dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures continue through tonight. - Shower and thunderstorm probabilities return Friday. Early morning weather maps showed surface high pressure centered near Elkins, WV, with shortwave ridging aloft. These features resulted in a quiet night across the forecast area, at least weatherwise, with only some (thin) passing high-level clouds noted on the satellite imagery blowing off the convection well to our west. Synoptically speaking, an upper low is expected to wobble into and around southern California over the next day (or three). This is expected to shift the shortwave ridge axis near our area slightly eastward as the surface high moves offshore. The result will be a strengthening southwesterly flow in the boundary layer and aloft, which will result in this afternoon`s high temperatures being some 20 degrees above climatological normal for this time of year. ("Normal" highs for this time of year are generally in the 50s.) The frontal system to affect our region is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley tonight, driven not by the upper low wobbling near Yuma, but primarily by an upper trough digging into the northern Plains. Probabilistically speaking, showers could move into Southeast West Virginia as early as 5-6 a.m., and the forecast accounts for this. However, it`s more likely that most of the showers will move into our western areas around mid-morning Friday. Forecast soundings and high-resolution CAMs indicate paltry amounts of instability (at best) across our region. Kinematic fields appear to be sufficient for limited convective organization, with most of the shear focused near the front. This leads me to believe that the thunderstorm potential with this event should be limited, and mostly over the Piedmont given the projected timing of the front moving across the forecast area. Even with the increased cloud cover and precipitation Friday, above normal high temperatures should again be seen. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... 1. Rain diminishes by Saturday morning, dry until late Sunday in the mountains. 2. Above normal temperatures through the weekend, but cold overnight lows Sunday night. By the start of this forecast period, a cold front will be stretched across the area, and much of the eastern US and south into the Gulf Coast states. Rain showers will be ongoing, but coming to an end by Saturday morning. Some thunderstorms are possible Friday night, moreso over the Piedmont during this time with some greater instability forecast in this area. However, westerly flow will help to limit the coverage of showers out in the east. The higher rainfall totals will be west of the Blue Ridge, up to a half an inch to three quarters of an inch in the west, and then up to a tenth in the Piedmont and Southside Virginia. By Saturday morning, the precipitation will be out of the area, so Saturday will be dry and warmer than normal, though a few degrees cooler than Friday. By the end of the weekend, a surface low tracks across southern Canada and the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front progged to cross the eastern US, while a southern stream frontal system develops over the southern US and Gulf Coast. The deeper moisture continues to look more over the southeastern states, and further to the northeast for the system to the north. Therefore, thinking precipitation coverage over the area will be limited to the favored northwest flow upslope areas of southeast West Virginia and southwest Virginia. With colder air pushing in behind the front on Sunday, there may be a mix of rain and snow showers Sunday night into Monday in the far western mountains. Daytime highs on Sunday will be warm, since the frontal passage looks to be later Sunday night, but behind that, overnight lows will drop back towards freezing.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 350 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1. Colder temperatures and gusty winds to start the work week. 2. Mostly dry weather expected through midweek. The work week will start with a fairly amplified upper level pattern, with a deep trough over the eastern US and a closed upper low situated over the southwest US. A much colder airmass will fill into the region behind the frontal passage Sunday night. Strong cold air advection and pressure rises Tuesday will lead to gusty northwest winds for the beginning of the work week. This northwest flow may bring enough moisture from the Great Lakes for some upslope rain and snow showers, mainly over southeast West Virginia, Monday and possibly Tuesday, but any precipitation will be likely be light. Surface high pressure will develop over the central US and expand towards the east coast by Tuesday, then become more centered over the southeast by midweek. The high will keep weather dry and quiet for most of the area, outside of those light mountain showers. Monday night will be the coldest night of the period, with lows dropping back towards below freezing. Tuesday will start a warming trend, with temperatures warming back towards seasonal normals.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Flight categories will remain VFR across area terminals through 15/0600. Some thin Cs from convection to our W may be seen, mainly after 14/1800 UTC, but no impacts to aviation are anticipated. Wind speeds will become SW and increase to 5-10 kts. this afternoon. A few -SHRA may be seen across SE WV terminals after 15/0900 as a cold front approaches from the W. However, the probability of this impacting aviation before 15/1200 UTC is low and no restrictions to aviation will be advertised at this time. OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday and Friday night: Sub-VFR flight categories are expected due to low CIGs/reduced VSBYs as a cold front brings SHRA/TSRA to the region. Saturday: Flight restrictions will be possible W of the Blue Ridge due to lingering low CIGs. Otherwise, flight categories should improve to VFR. Sunday: Flight restrictions will be possible W of the Blue Ridge due to lower CIGs and another passing cold front. Monday: Flight restrictions remain possible, mainly W of the Blue Ridge due to lower CIGs and upslope precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure will allow dry conditions to continue across the region through tonight. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values today should be greater than what was observed yesterday, with values between 25-30% across the Piedmont, and 30-35% along and west of the Blue Ridge. The next chance of wetting rain will come Friday and Friday night as a cold front moves across the region. Rain will likely begin Friday morning west of the Blue Ridge, but may not reach the Piedmont until the afternoon. Rainfall amounts between up to a third of an inch will be possible in the mountains, with around a tenth of an inch forecast for much of the Piedmont. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB NEAR TERM...DB SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...DB

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