Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 140745 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures will cover the region through tonight. A front will move from the Central United States to the Mid-Atlantic Friday, and bring the possibility of showers, as well as a few thunderstorms, to the region. Another front, with limited moisture, will cross the region Sunday. This system will bring colder temperatures, as well as mountain rain and snow showers to start the new workweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Key Messages: - Dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures continue through tonight. - Shower and thunderstorm probabilities return Friday. Early morning weather maps showed surface high pressure centered near Elkins, WV, with shortwave ridging aloft. These features resulted in a quiet night across the forecast area, at least weatherwise, with only some (thin) passing high-level clouds noted on the satellite imagery blowing off the convection well to our west. Synoptically speaking, an upper low is expected to wobble into and around southern California over the next day (or three). This is expected to shift the shortwave ridge axis near our area slightly eastward as the surface high moves offshore. The result will be a strengthening southwesterly flow in the boundary layer and aloft, which will result in this afternoon`s high temperatures being some 20 degrees above climatological normal for this time of year. ("Normal" highs for this time of year are generally in the 50s.) The frontal system to affect our region is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley tonight, driven not by the upper low wobbling near Yuma, but primarily by an upper trough digging into the northern Plains. Probabilistically speaking, showers could move into Southeast West Virginia as early as 5-6 a.m., and the forecast accounts for this. However, it`s more likely that most of the showers will move into our western areas around mid-morning Friday. Forecast soundings and high-resolution CAMs indicate paltry amounts of instability (at best) across our region. Kinematic fields appear to be sufficient for limited convective organization, with most of the shear focused near the front. This leads me to believe that the thunderstorm potential with this event should be limited, and mostly over the Piedmont given the projected timing of the front moving across the forecast area. Even with the increased cloud cover and precipitation Friday, above normal high temperatures should again be seen.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Key Message: - Mainly dry and still mild Saturday. Should see temps start to slightly cool Friday night as showers fade, but not too much with 40s west to lower 50s east. Saturday models have another disturbance pushing into the mid- Atlantic although track of shortwave with little low level support will keep us dry with backing flow keeping highs above normal with upper 50s to mid 60s across the mountains, to around 70 east. Forecast confidence is higher on temperatures/wind and sky cover and moderate on rain chances.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Key Messages: 1) Expect little precip this period. 2) Turning much colder Monday-Tuesday. Expect less precip Sunday as models are trending further south with the deeper moisture and have limited moisture with the northern stream front. This front exits Sunday night with colder air working in to start the new workweek. Appears northwest flow low level moisture allows for a few rain to snow showers in the mountains but overall just looking at colder temperatures with blustery winds through Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Gulf Coast states Wednesday with dry airmass remaining in place but temps moderating back to seasonal norms.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Flight categories will remain VFR across area terminals through 15/0600. Some thin Cs from convection to our W may be seen, mainly after 14/1800 UTC, but no impacts to aviation are anticipated. Wind speeds will become SW and increase to 5-10 kts. this afternoon. A few -SHRA may be seen across SE WV terminals after 15/0900 as a cold front approaches from the W. However, the probability of this impacting aviation before 15/1200 UTC is low and no restrictions to aviation will be advertised at this time. OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday and Friday night: Sub-VFR flight categories are expected due to low CIGs/reduced VSBYs as a cold front brings SHRA/TSRA to the region. Saturday: Flight restrictions will be possible W of the Blue Ridge due to lingering low CIGs. Otherwise, flight categories should improve to VFR. Sunday: Flight restrictions will be possible W of the Blue Ridge due to lower CIGs and another passing cold front. Monday: Flight restrictions remain possible, mainly W of the Blue Ridge due to lower CIGs and upslope precipitation.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure will allow dry conditions to continue across the region through tonight. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values today should be greater than what was observed yesterday, with values between 25-30% across the Piedmont, and 30-35% along and west of the Blue Ridge. The next chance of wetting rain will come Friday and Friday night as a cold front moves across the region. Rain will likely begin Friday morning west of the Blue Ridge, but may not reach the Piedmont until the afternoon. Rainfall amounts between up to a third of an inch will be possible in the mountains, with around a tenth of an inch forecast for much of the Piedmont.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB NEAR TERM...DB SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...DB

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