Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 240745 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow-moving cold front will drift southward over the Mid Atlantic Monday. High pressure works across the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday-Wednesday with our temperatures returning closer to normal. Another front approaches Friday from the northwest.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 324 AM EDT Monday... Area of showers and storms have weakened east of the Blue Ridge early this morning with residual showers back over Southeast WV into the NC mountains behind sfc trough. Will see less coverage today as deeper moisture shift southeast with front arriving across the central Appalachians. SPC has pretty much cleared the area of severe threat and most models are in agreement on limited coverage, with isolated across the WV mountains with frontal convergence and in the far eastern CWA closer to lee trough and deeper moisture. Expect a little lower humidity today with west winds still providing a very warm day with highs ranging from the 80s west, to lower to mid 90s east. Tonight, axis of upper trough exits east while sfc front slides south into NC. Question remains how far south the front goes along with deep moisture. Appears any convection this afternoon should fade by mid evening. Skies stay clear to partly cloudy with lows in the 60s west, to lower 70s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 325 AM EDT Monday... Looking a little drier Tue-Wed with northwest flow aloft and rising heights while sfc high wedges southward into our area from the northeast. Still could see some isolated showers or storms in the southern Blue Ridge and NC foothills/piedmont Tue, then a little more southeast flow may allow for convection Wednesday to fire further north along the Blue Ridge and foothills but confidence is low as latest models are trending drier. Return flow continues a little more Thursday ahead of next front moving into the Ohio Valley, but appears coverage will be isolated to widely scattered. Temperature will be close to normal this period, which is a little cooler than what we have been experiencing.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1100 AM EDT Sunday... A cold front will make its way across the mid Atlantic on Friday, triggering more organized/widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest run of the weather forecast models indicate that the front will clear our area to the south by Saturday morning, bringing drier air in its wake. Have therefore lowered rain chances for next weekend, though isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Monday... Expect moderate to heavier showers/storms at ROA/LYH at the start of the taf diminishing at ROA by 07z, and LYH by 08z. Showers will be diminishing across the region by 09z, with mainly VFR expected outside showers. Will have to watch for fog if we clear out but plenty of high clouds should prevent that from happening. Low threat of showers/storms Monday so not including in the tafs, and keeping it VFR. Winds will remain WSW-WNW 5-10kts through most of the TAF valid period, but low end gusts are expected after 14Z Monday mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Aviation Extended Discussion... A slow-moving cold front should slowly sag south of our region Monday night. This frontal boundary should stall to the south by Tuesday and eventually return northward as a cold front later in the week. Although convection should become more isolated for most of this period, the weather patten will still remain unsettled to some extent. High pressure wedging southward on Wednesday could bring some MVFR/IFR ceilings, which should quickly vanish by Thursday. Aside from any early morning fog and isolated convection, VFR conditions should prevail through most of this week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...RAB/WP

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