Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 121928 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 328 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK FRONT OVER CENTRAL WV TO SRN VA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON PER HEATING/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING. APPEARS CU FROM VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING NO/LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES. LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND CU/SPRINKLES FADE. AT THIS TIME...SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS BY DAWN. MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S VALLEYS TO LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM WITH SW FLOW INCREASING. DEWPOINTS EDGE UP SOME AS WELL. CU SHOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BUT LACK OF FORCING WILL LEAD TO SPRINKLES AT BEST OVER THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS AT BEST. COULD SEE RECORD HIGHS APPROACHED AT THE MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SITES BCB/BLF/LWB. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70 ALONG THE CUSP OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANYS...TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE TO RESULT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWER IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED DIFFERENT OPINIONS ON THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOOK SIMILAR ON THE ECMWF AND GFS. FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOL DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF FROSTY MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER STARTING COOL ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY... CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR IF ANY CIGS TRANSPIRE IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT REMAINING LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS. SW FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AFTER 12Z. PRIOR TO THIS EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF MVFR FOG AT LWB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 3-5SM AT BCB AS WELL...BUT DRY WX THE LAST 3 DAYS AND LACK GREENERY ON TREES WILL LIMIT THIS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. VFR FORECAST INTO MONDAY. START TO SEE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN THESE. MONDAY NIGHT...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY AT THIS POINT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS AT OUR MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SITES SUNDAY APR 13. THE ROA/LYH/DAN SITE RECORDS ARE OUT OF REACH...SO NOT INCLUDED IN THIS SECTION. STATION RECORD/YEAR/RECORDS BEGAN FORECAST HIGH APR 13TH BLACKSBURG 80/1977/1952 78 BLUEFIELD 81/1977/1959 80 LEWISBURG 79/1977/1973 78
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP CLIMATE...WP

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