Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 211743 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1243 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND RETURNS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS 933 AM EST FRIDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD AFTERNOON! AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY... THE FINAL IN THE SERIES OF FOUR ARCTIC HIGHS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED -SHSN OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY SPILL OVER TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE MONROE/CRAIG MONROE/GILES COUNTY LINES IN SW VA THROUGH 13/14Z. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MID-DAY...SO WILL TREND TOWARD SKC BY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS TO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT...RAPID WAA IS EXPECTED AT 850MB WITH WELL BELOW 0C 850MB TEMPS THROUGH MID-DAY TRANSITION CWA-WIDE BY 12Z SAT INTO THE +4-+5C RANGE. THUS...THE COOLEST AREAS SAT MORNING WILL BE THE DEEPER VALUES AND PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE REMNANT ARCTIC HIGH. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. MANY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WARMING OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE WARMER BY 12Z SAT THAN AT 00Z THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY... WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OF TO OUR EAST. THINGS WILL START GOING DOWNHILL SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO WIND UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LIKE THE NAM IDEA OF BRINGING POPS IN ALONG THE RIDGES A BIT FASTER AS FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND FAVOR UPSLOPE...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GRIDS SHOW A FEW PIXELS OF WINTRY PTYPE AS THE ONSET OF PCPN ALONG THE RIDGES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH TEMP PROFILES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES AS WE SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE BEST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW AS IF MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND WITH SECOND LOW LEVEL JET MAX MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL PLANE. CURRENTLY BELIEVE QPF DISTRIBUTION WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NC FOOTHILLS UP THROUGH SOUTHSIDE VA WHERE VALUES OF ROUGHLY ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HOWLING BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE HIGHER RIDGES ARE A CONCERN FOR WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. THE LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO MORE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY SHEARING OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY... FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE COLD AIR LAGS THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN MAY BE VOID OF MUCH SHRA BUT LEAVING IN A LOW POP TO COVER ISOLATED COVERAGE BUT DECREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD AGAIN BE PRETTY MILD MONDAY NIGHT PER LOWS IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY 50S TO AROUND 60 SE TUESDAY IF NOT WARMER ESPCLY IF THE FRONT SLOWS. COOLER AIR SHOULD FINALLY MAKE SOME INROADS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT TO WHAT DEGREE REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN DAYS 6-7 IN LATEST MODELS. COLDER GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN DIGGING A DEEP 5H TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHILE THE ECMWF MORE ZONAL WITH MORE ENERGY SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST AND THE CMC IN BETWEEN. THIS SPELLS DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS BY 10-15 DEGREES INTO THANKSGIVING ALONG WITH ADDED UPSLOPE PRECIP VS JUST DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. GIVEN TRENDS WITH MORE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST...GOING COOLER BUT A BIT ABOVE THE GFS WHILE KEEPING THINGS DRY BUT A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1242 PM EST FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO LLWS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW FLOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS STAFFED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...KK/RAB SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB EQUIPMENT...RAB

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