Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270300 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1000 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY... AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE DIGGING THROUGHT THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE 4-INCH ANOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION. EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY... VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND. && .HYDROLOGY... STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009- 015. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PC SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PC/RCS HYDROLOGY...PC EQUIPMENT...AMS

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