Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 260300 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1000 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 955 PM EST SUNDAY... MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 9PM/02Z. CLOUD BASES WERE LOWERING AND THE AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY SATURATING BUT ONLY PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UP TO THIS POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINIUM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S UNTIL AROUND 6AM/11Z. AS THIS COLD POOL BEGINS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IN THE WARM ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHEN ENERGY TRANSFER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS POSSIBLE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP OF CONCERN IN CAUSING ADDED COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ESPCLY GREENBRIER EAST ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE. SINCE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND HAVE TRENDED COLDER...UPPING AMOUNTS FOR QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW BY DAYBREAK MONDAY BUT TRICKY AS IF PRECIP IS LIGHTER THEN MAY ONLY BE RAIN OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SINCE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO FOCUS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RIGHT AROUND RUSH HOUR...PLAN TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY FOR 1-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. IF THINGS ORGANIZE MORE THEN COULD SEE HEADLINES NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO CRAIG/BOTETOURT CTYS AND EAST TO AMHERST BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PERHAPS A MIX TO SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH INTO THE ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH LESS ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM LYH TO BEDFORD TO MTV TO UKF AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MORNING. HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WITH LIKELYS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND OVERALL CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTH. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 40 SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LOCK IN WARMTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND TAKES MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A QUICK PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING THAT DURING THIS TRANSITION THAT RAIN/SNOW MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H LOW DURING THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH ESPCLY GIVEN COOLING ALOFT OVERTOP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ADDED SNOWFALL OVER THE NW BEFORE AFTERNOON DRYING OCCURS AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE KICKS IN. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE PHASING SYSTEM TO PRODUCE CONTINUED SPOTTY -RA SO ALTHOUGH EXPECT POPS TO STEADILY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN SOME LINGERING CHANCE COVERAGE WITH LOW LIKELYS FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES SUGGESTS INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS JUST BELOW ADVISORY NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND QUITE BLUSTERY ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S NW TO 40-45 BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 40S SE PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH AT LEAST LAKE ERIE ORIGINS...AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT TO SEE A UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURS...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NO MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND FROM BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF. WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. IR SAT SHOWS SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO BELOW 10KTS. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE -RA AT BLF/LWB AS EARLY AS 03Z AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 06-09Z. EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT BLF/LWB AFTER 06Z...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN BCB AND ALL RAIN AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO A MORE N/NW DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS. && .EQUIPMENT... HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-020- 024. NC...NONE. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...AMS/JH SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...CF EQUIPMENT...AMS

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