Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 242328 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 728 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring increasing heat and humidity through Monday. A series of weak surface cold fronts approaching from the northwest should gradually bring an increasing threat for showers and storms by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 711 PM EDT Sunday... Area of deep moisture convergence lies across Southeast WV late this afternoon. A few showers and storms formed along the gradient with a few pop ups near Blacksburg and Marion, VA. Will see decreasing coverage through the evening with loss of solar insolation. More organized convection moving across Southwestern PA will slide southeast toward the MD/DC area, but not expecting this across our area late. Previous valid discussion... Upper level ridge over the region is expected to sink south over the next couple of days. Heights over the area will be at its highest through Monday. Temperatures across the mountains will peak into the upper 80s to lower 90s with ridges being a tad cooler. East of the Blue Ridge and into the piedmont, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s. Dew points across the south- central piedmont of Virginia will likely remain in the 70s, producing heat indices values near 105F. A heat advisory has been issued for this area for Monday. Otherwise expecting mainly sunny skies with convection quite limited given little support aloft and warm mid level temps. Still appears some weak low level convergence across the western ridges could combine with heating/instability to pop isolated to scattered slow moving storms across the mountain by mid afternoon Monday. Mainly clear skies tonight outside of debris clouds with patchy fog valleys and muggy lows, mid/upper 60s west to 70-75 east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday... Slight drop in 500 mb heights is forecast by the models on Wednesday. No significant change in air mass this time frame either. 850MB temperatures do not go any lower than +18 through Wednesday night. There will be some increased low level convergence along the tail of a weak front that crosses from the northwest into the forecast area on Tuesday. While the front may stall to the north there will still be some troffing on the lee side of the Appalachians on Tuesday and across North Carolina on Wednesday. Enough daytime mixing on Tuesday and Wednesday to lower surface dew points in the afternoon. This will keep heat index values in the piedmont just below heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Amount of troffing in the eastern United States for the end of the week is questionable. GFS was the more amplified while the ECMWF was slightly flatter. Friday looks to be the next day with any potential for decent upper support. Will have the higher probability of precipitation on Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 718 PM EDT Sunday... Anticipate a repeat or close to last night. VFR outside any fog at LWB/BCB late, may see some MVFR fog at DAN. Small area of showers northwest of LWB at this writing should weaken and stay north of LWB through 01z. Monday will see ridge overhead again, but some better convergence along the southern Blue Ridge into the Southeast WV mountains may allow for more shower or storm coverage. Nonetheless will be widely scattered. Confidence high enough to at least put VCTS at BLF/BCB for now after 19z Monday. Extended aviation discussion... Ridge will finally weaken through mid week as an initial cold front sinks toward the area from the northwest. This should bring about an increase in daily convective coverage Tuesday into Friday with periodic MVFR/IFR possible. Late night and early morning fog will likely occur at the usual valley locations, and those chances increase across the entire region if any rain occurs during the afternoon or evening at any site. && .CLIMATE... Record high broken at Blacksburg today as we reached 93. Previous record was 92 in 1991. Record high temperatures for Monday (7/25) Roanoke.....100 in 1934 Lynchburg...102 in 1934 Danville....102 in 2010 Blacksburg...92 in 1987 Bluefield....90 in 1987 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ046-047-058- 059. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...RCS/WP CLIMATE...JH/WP

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