Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250823 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 423 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK TO KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THEN WILL TRAIL FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT SO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS WERE SHOWING MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF FORCING OR LIFT. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE IN THE PIEDMONT LIMITED TO NONE. NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY OR TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...BUT THIN CIRRUS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THAN ENOUGH SUNSHINE BEFORE STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST AS WARM AS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SO USED A BLEND AS GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH SOME WEAK JET DYNAMICS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. SPS HAS PLACED A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH ON THE DAY TWO CONVECTION OUTLOOK CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. A SECOND WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD LIMIT INSTABILITIES AND REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL WEDGE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEDGE CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. FOR THURSDAY...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION LINGERING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. KEPT SCATTERED POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WEDGES HOLD LIKE ECMWF SUGGESTS...OR IF IT PROGRESSIVE LIKE GFS AND CLEARS RAIN OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. IN ANY CASE...LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WERE SIMILAR IN GUIDANCE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE...ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HELP WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND ON-GOING WILD FIRE CONTROL.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY... ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND REACH OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER DRY OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. IN GENERAL...USED BLEND OF THE ECM/GFS FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS WERE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/RCS AVIATION...AMS/PW

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