Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270613 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 213 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 951 PM EDT SUNDAY... DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS...AND EVENING RNK SOUNDING SHOWS ONE OF THE DRIER AIR MASSES WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND THE VERY LOW END OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MONTH. WINDS IN PROTECTED VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED WHILE STILL A LITTLE GUSTY ALONG RIDGES...AND THUS SOME VERY DIVERSE EVENING TEMPERATURES...FROM UPPER 30S PROTECTED HIGHER VALLEYS TO LOWER 60S ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGES. DEW PTS ALSO COMING UP A BIT WHERE IT HAS DECOUPLED...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS DEW PTS...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT MINS...WITH COLD VALLEYS AND MILD RIDGES STILL REFLECTED. PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 658 PM EDT SUNDAY... MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN GENERAL AND ESPECIALLY IN SOME MTN VALLEYS WITH EFFECTIVE DECOUPLING UNDER COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM WEST. ALSO KEEPING WINDS AND TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER ON RIDGES OVERNIGHT. WHERE WE HAVE NOT ENDED THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM...THIS ADDS A FEW MORE PIXELS OF PATCHY FROST IN COLDER POCKETS...BUT WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT THIS WILL REMAIN VERY PATCHY AT BEST...AND STILL NO NEED FOR FROST ADVISORY. PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY... THIS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AIR IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGES. ADDED THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED OVER FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WARM SPELL IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY... RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME INFILTRATION OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY TUESDAY BUT APPEARS WONT BE THICK ENOUGH TO DETER VERY WARM HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AFTER A MILDER MONDAY NIGHT WHERE WILL SEE MAINLY 50S OUTSIDE THE VALLEYS FOR LOWS AS THE JET ALOFT ACTS TO ENHANCE MIXING. LATEST THICKNESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 85H TEMPS PROGGED NEAR 18C SHOULD ALLOW MOST TO REACH THE 70S TUESDAY WITH SOME LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS MAY THREATEN A FEW RECORDS ESPCLY WEST PER CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODEL TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS EAST. HOWEVER GIVEN MOST SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE SHOWER BAND TO QUICKLY WEAKEN CROSSING THE RIDGES WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPCLY PER LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LESS MOISTURE HEADING EAST. LATEST 12Z EURO/NAM THEN SHOW A FAINT WAVE MOVING UP THE SLOWING BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER FLARE UP OF SHOWERS THAT MAY LINGER EAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS SLOWED UP EXODUS OF MOISTURE AND KEPT IN DECENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN HALF WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT FROM NW TO SE LATE. ALSO RUNNING WITHOUT ANY THUNDER MENTION PER LACK OF FORECAST CAPE AND SHALLOW NATURE TO MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO BE DAMPENED A BIT BY CLOUDS/SHRA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR 70S SE AND 60S MOUNTAINS BEFORE ONSET OF WEAK COOL ADVECTION SETS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY... OVERALL DRY BUT MUCH COOLER PERIOD IN STORE ESPCLY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG 5H TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PERHAPS SET THE STAGE FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING EVEN OUT ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. OTRW INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY...WILL ALLOW A GLANCING SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION TO KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH ANY EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS SE EXITING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY. HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND PASSES THROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRIVE THE STRONGER 85H COLD ADVECTION TO THE SE. MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN MAINTAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE WELL TO THE NE WHERE PHASING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY TAKE PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STRONG AND MUCH COLDER NW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT THIS POINT FAR WEST. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW FINALLY BUILDS IN BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS BUT STILL CHILLY TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY GIVEN SLIGHTLY LESS DIGGING ALOFT BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GO FROM 50S/LOW 60S FRIDAY...COOLING TO 40S WEST/50S EAST SATURDAY AND MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT STARTS TO DEPART. LOWS MOSTLY 30S FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL BELOW FREEZING WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNSET. RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT FAIRLY BRIEF WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT. VFR TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28... ROANOKE.....86 (1919) LYNCHBURG...88 (1919) DANVILLE....85 (1984) BLUEFIELD...77 (1984) LEWISBURG...76 (1984) BLACKSUBRG..80 (1984) && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK/SK SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...JH

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