Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 171658 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1258 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will take up residency along the southeast coast of the United States through at least Thursday and provide mild and dry conditions to our region. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night into Friday along with its associated showers. Gusty winds are expected behind the front Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1255 PM EDT Monday... Expect no major changes to the forecast through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Have only made minor adjustments to temperature, dew point, wind, and sky cover to reflect the latest observations and expected trends through the afternoon. Earlier forecast high temperatures have been adjusted by no more than plus or minus two degrees. As of 950 AM EDT Monday... Fog has been slowly dissipating across the area. Most of the remaining fog is confined to parts of the New and Greenbrier River valleys, as well as, the valleys of the southern Alleghany Highlands. The dissipation trend is expected to continue with fog-free conditions expected everywhere between 1100 AM and noon. Have prolonged the river and mountain valley fog accordingly in the forecast in these regions. No other notable adjustments were made at this time. As of 717 AM EDT Monday... Fog is pretty dense in some of the river valleys this morning but not enough coverage for advisory, so special wx statement covers this til 8am. Fog will burn off around 9am, leaving mainly sunny skies the rest of the day outside some scattered cirrus or cumulus. Previous discussion from early this morning... Building heights from the southwest expected this period as shortwave over New England exits. Anticipate a mainly sunny and warm mid October day. A few cirrus and cumulus appears in order but not much effect on sunshine. Going to see highs around 10 degrees above normal. Not expecting any records today, though Bluefield may get close. See climate section below. Tonight, not much change to the previous forecast with some increase in dewpoints as southwest flow increases in the low to mid levels. Overall using a blend with lows mainly in the mid 50s to around 60. Fog will be patchy in the river valleys, with mainly clear, moon-lit skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... High pressure will remain anchored off the North Carolina coast into Wednesday night. Upper level ridging will continue across the Southeast United States. Southwest flow at the surface will bring warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Mid Atlantic region. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. See the climate section below for record highs that could be in jeopardy during this timeframe. Under plenty of sunshine, High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the mountains to the lower to mid 80s in the Piedmont. Lows will be elevated as well with readings from the mid 50s in the west to the lower 60s in the east. The combination of warm air advection and increasing low-level moisture may create areas of fog during the overnight hours. As the upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS, a cold front will push into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. This front will be far enough to our west to keep its associated moisture northwest of our region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday... Thursday begins with an organizing upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a cold front approaching the Appalachian Mountains. The latest 12Z GFS has come into better agreement with the previous ECMWF solutions regarding the timing of the frontal passage. Both models depict the chance of showers starting Thursday afternoon west of I-81 and spreading eastward by Thursday night. However, rainfall amounts continue to trend lower with the latest runs showing QPF about a half an inch or less. Overall, the models favor a frontal passage during Thursday night into Friday with the best chance of showers advertised along and west of the Blue Ridge. Afterward, the 12Z GFS still tries to develop a blocky pattern by cutting off the upper level trough along the Southeast coast toward Friday night, but the progressive ECMWF pattern that portrays the cold front heading offshore by Friday night continues to be favored more among the ensemble models. Therefore, chances of showers have been nudged downward for Saturday, but some lingering upslope showers remain possible in southeast West Virginia. Cooler northwest flow behind the front will send low temperatures dipping into the 40s, while highs will only reach the 50s and 60s. Dry conditions return by Sunday and should continue into next week with high pressure overhead. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 719 AM EDT Monday... Fog will be burn off around 13-14z with VFR expected the rest of the day under a light southwest flow. Some cumulus possible but scattered at best. A bit of fog again late tonight similar to this morning. With clear skies and light winds, but increasing dewpoints, fog will be more prevalent at the typical sites...LWB/BCB. Still not going to go all the way over to LIFR for BCB keeping it 2sm around 08z, but LWB should have dense fog. MVFR to IFR fog also seems possible at LYH. Extended aviation discussion... Through Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected during the daylight hours, with redevelopment overnight of river and mountain valley fog and associated IFR to LIFR stratus layers/ceilings. Fog will be more widespread each night as the week progresses due to rising surface dew points and increasing low level moisture. A cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday night into early Friday. Expect the initial onset of scattered showers across western sections by Thursday afternoon. A southwest to northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across the region with gusty winds behind the front continuing into Friday. Areas of sub-VFR conditions will likely accompany the front and precipitation associated with it. && .CLIMATE... As of 125 AM EDT Monday... Temperatures will be above seasonal levels for most of the week, though our record highs may be hard to reach, except for perhaps for Blacksburg or Bluefield, mainly Wednesday. Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20. Oct 17 Location Record Max Bluefield.....78 in 2000 Danville......88 in 1989 Lynchburg.....88 in 1908 Roanoke.......86 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1989 Oct 18 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 2007 Danville......86 in 2007 Lynchburg.....91 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1953 Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...AMS/WP CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.