Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 230440 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1140 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE RIDGE...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM EST THURSDAY... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND STARTS TO WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MORNING. EXPECTING LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO START OFF...THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF STARTS TO HEAD IN OUR DIRECTION. A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY WORK INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY FRIDAY...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION/WINTRY MIX WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... EXPECT TO START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MOBILE BAY...RADIATING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE...STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS... WHERE IT WILL BRING A COOL EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM ARRIVING AND SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE COMPLEX DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM... RESULTING IN MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT TO SEA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY...ACTING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING AS SNOW...BUT THAT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ABOVE THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES...INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WINTRY CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID. BECAUSE OF THE TRACK THE LOW IS FOLLOWING AND THE TIMING...CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES JUST AFTER MAX HEATING ON FRIDAY... UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OUR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST...WHICH WOULD ROB THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OF MOISTURE AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL PASS NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY FOR OUR AREA. THIS WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO CAUSE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH THAT 1 TO 2 INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY...BRINGING WINDS INCREASINGLY WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE ONLY LINGER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK KEEPING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE...BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND FORECAST LOW LEVEL TEMPS KEEP PRECIP MAINLY LIQUID (EXCEPT A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING) EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE . UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...BUT EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP UNCLEAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 1140 PM EST THURSDAY... EVOLVING LORE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KROA/KDAN/KBCB AND KBLF WILL NOT HAVE PRECIPITATION...OR EVEN MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z/7AM. CEILINGS WILL LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR THEN IFR AFTER 12Z/7AM WITH RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER EACH RUN. HAVE A FEW HOURS OF VFR CEILINGS AT KLWB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE ADDED FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN FOR KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB AFTER 00Z/7PM BASED ON LATEST BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN KBLF AND KLWB AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE APPALACHIANS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST PAST SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009>017. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ043-044-507-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...AMS/MBS

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