Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 141915 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic region tonight and cover much of the eastern United States through Sunday. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. A gradually warming trend to slightly above normal temperatures is expected through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 310 PM EDT Thursday... Surface high pressure builds over the region tonight and Friday. No organized lift or forcing this time and winds are to weak to contribute with any upslope component. This will limit the best probability of precipitation to the afternoon and evening. Even with daytime heating, there will not be much instability on Friday. Bufkit forecast soundings for Friday morning showing shallow, but strong surface based inversion favoring fog. Still question the extent and timing of fog formation with at the cloud cover but will hold it in the overnight forecast for now. Models move deeper moisture to the northeast tonight then hold moisture in below 850MB with sporadic breaks. Will stay close to guidance for temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 310 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure remain over much of the eastern United States through Sunday. Saturday night and Sunday surface and low level wind turn to the northeast with slightly increasing winds speeds between the high and Tropical Storm Jose. Expecting broad upper ridging over the eastern United States Friday night through Sunday with 850MB temperatures gradually warming from around +12 to +16. Similar weather pattern continues through Sunday with little to trigger any precipitation. Guidance reasonable for temperatures through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... This portion of the forecast will be characterized by limited chances of precipitation and little deviation of temperatures from day to day, with these readings averaging five to eight degrees above normal. The best, perhaps only, chance of precipitation during this timeframe will be on Monday. We will be watching a cold front approach the area from the west. While guidance is fairly uniform with this feature reaching the area, it is also fairly uniform with our area within a subsidence zone, on the northwest side of Hurricane Jose, as it potentially tracks north, east of the east coast of the U.S. So what precipitation the front brings with it will be squelched by first limited moisture, and increasing local subsidence. The forecast will reflect isolated showers through the day, with isolated showers and storms in the afternoon, with the focus across the mountains. Sunday night through early Thursday, both surface high pressure, and a building ridge aloft will minimize precipitation chances, and provide for more sun than clouds. Thursday, we will be watching another cold front approach from the west. Guidance among the models is not as uniform with this feature as it is with the Monday feature. Will allow for isolated coverage across the mountains for showers, but confidence is lower than that of Monday. During the period, low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains and around 60 to the lower 60s across the Piedmont. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains with readings around 80 to the lower 80s across the Piedmont.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 552 AM EDT Thursday... Radar trends showed diminishing coverage and intensity of showers across southwest Virgina, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia this afternoon. Have trimmed back mention of showers in the area TAFs. Any showers are not expected to restrict the visibility. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings over the mountains west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. High confidence of only minor, if any, improvement for the rest of the day. Showers will continue to dry up tonight. Medium confidence in the development of fog. Will depend on how much cloud cover remains in place. More cloud cover would result in less fog. Low clouds and fog will lift slowly after sunrise on Friday. Pattern is somewhat stagnant with overall southwest winds from the surface through mid levels. Surface high pressure builds in by Friday prolonging light and variable surface winds. Extended Aviation Discussion... Isolated showers possible Friday afternoon. Some MVFR showers are possible on Saturday with another short wave. The chance of precipitation remains low for Sunday and Monday. Expect diurnal isolated showers and thunderstorms across the terrain. Aside from valley fog in the early morning, conditions overall should be VFR. Tuesday may feature some isolated MVFR showers in the mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/KK

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