Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 180557 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 157 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 905 PM EDT Tuesday... Temps again falling fast in the deeper valleys while dropping a bit slower tonight elsewhere despite clear skies/light winds. Latest Mos not quite as cool as earlier but still expect to see some late night 20s in the valleys per excellent radiational cooling conditions. However still appears not enough coverage at this point to upgrade spots across the northwest to a warning espcly given some fog potential late. Otherwise going advisory looks good over most of the region for at least patchy frost including eastern sections. Thus few changes to the going headline at this point. Did lower the valleys a bit more as well as outlying areas across the piedmont where the center of the surface ridge will end up toward dawn. This should spell mostly 30s across much of the region with range to the mid 20s in the deeper valleys. Previous discussion as of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... Beautiful October blue skies today will stay clear tonight, as high pressure stays fixed over the area, more centered over the piedmont than the mountains. With another day of drying out the low levels, should see less fog than this morning but with dewpoints in the 30s, and good radiational conditions, expect frost to from across most of the forecast area, but more specifically in rural/farmland areas/pastures and river and mountain valleys. Urban areas like Lynchburg/Roanoke and Danville should stay frost free, outside some patches here and there. Lows tonight will be in the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the mountain valleys, but not enough coverage of 32 or below for a freeze warning. Those areas that can expect freezing temperatures including Burkes Garden and portions of the Greenbrier and New River valleys, so plan accordingly in terms of plant protection. Not much change Wednesday with high pressure in control. A few models show some cirrus moving overhead Wednesday morning as upper flow turns more southwest with weak upper impulse moving through. Otherwise sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s to near 70, except lower 60s higher ridges. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic region through Thursday night. A very dry airmass will result in large nocturnal/diurnal temperature swings. It will be mostly clear and cold with light winds Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will range from the lower 30s in the mountains to the lower 40s in the piedmont. Bright sunshine expected Thursday with low minimum humidity readings. However, winds will remain light westerly. High temperatures Thursday will vary from the around 60 in the mountains to the mid 70s in the piedmont. Mostly clear and cool conditions will prevail Thursday night into Friday morning with low temperatures generally from the mid 30s in the west to the lower 40s in the east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... Amplified upper ridge over the Southeast will continue dry and warm weather heading into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday, the ridge axis begins to move east as the trough deepens into the middle of the country. The trough axis will move into the Ohio Valley Monday and rotate eastward into Tuesday. The trough axis should be located along the on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree on the depth and strength of trough and where to close off a southern low. Despite the fact that the location is different, both solutions showed a low closing off, upper flow turning more southwest, and an influx of moisture. This should result in an increasing chances of showers early next week. Temperatures staying above normal through Sunday, then a cooling trend expected Monday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday... A large, very dry high pressure area will remain over the region through the valid period drifting ever so slowly east by Thursday. Other than patchy river and mountain valley fog early this morning, VFR conditions expected through the TAF valid period. Patchy IFR-LIFR FG possible for LWB, less so for BCB, so will TEMPO such at these locations. Otherwise, not expecting any restrictions to ceilings or visibilities through the period with mostly SKC. Winds will be mostly light southeast 3-5kts during the daytime and light and variable or calm at night. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001>004- 018>020. WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-507- 508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...JH/RAB

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