Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 060547 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 147 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NC/VA COAST THIS MORNING NORTH TO PA/NJ BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY THEN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY... MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA COAST WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER WEST...THINK SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SO PLAN ON CUTTING POPS BACK EARLY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR SW VA INTO NC THIS MORNING PER MESONET OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOWING SNOW AT MT ROGERS AND BEECH MOUNTAIN. STILL ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT THESE LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME DUSTING ON THE ROADS IS POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY EVENING... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE AXIS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY BECOMING ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS AREA OF BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 8AM ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN THE FORECAST BUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY SO EVEN WITH A HEFTY DOSE OF RAINFALL TODAY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE AND SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS...MAINLY FROM MT. ROGERS TO BEECH MOUNTAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS MAY OVERCOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE LOOKING A LITTLE WETTER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A WAVY WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN THE LIS IS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. THEN...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY... KEPT CIGS LOWER THAN VFR THRU MOST OF THE MORNING PER LATEST MODEL FORECASTS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. SHOULD SEE ONLY MVFR FOG AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER BLF. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AROUND 12-15Z IN THE WEST AND MIDDAY IN THE EAST AS SFC LOW STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA. STILL IFFY ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINK THE LWB/BLF/BCB AREA WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE STARTING TO DRY THINGS SOME IN BCB AND PERHAPS ROA. WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW TO LYH/DAN SHOULD SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THERE THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS...BECOMING VFR BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THINKING IS LESS SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAFS AFTER LATE AFTERNOON...WITH EVERYONE VFR. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...RCS/WP

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