Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250922 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 422 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS LASTING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY... WINDS DIMINISHING STEADILY NOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY WAS THUS DROPPED. BEGINNING TO LOSE THE THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AS WELL...AND AS SUCH...LOW CLOUDS COVER IN MTNS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT. AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING SW AHEAD OF ADVANCING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH WARMEST GUIDANCE OF 40S IN MTNS AND LOWER 50S IN PIEDMONT. MAYBE EVEN MID 50S FOR SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BUMPED UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. AS CLOUDS THICKEN BY TONIGHT...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY AND QUESTION IS WILL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW THAT COMES IN AHEAD OF SFC LOW...GENERALLY TIMED FOR MIDNIGHT OR LATER IN THE WEST. WHILE THIS CLASSIFIES AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM...IT HAS BEEN TRENDING TO DIG A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOW DOWN A BIT WITH NEW MODEL CYCLES...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP MIGHT NOT REACH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL CLOSER TO DAWN MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES OF NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE SNOW TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...3000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER. I MAY EVEN HAVE TEMPS TOO COLD AT THESE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND CHANGING TO SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW TOO EARLY. AN INCH OR SO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING AT PLACES LIKE BEECH MTN NC...MT ROGERS VA...TO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV AND HIGHER RIDGES IN THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA...BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON IF PRECIP RATES CAN BRIEFLY GET HIGH ENOUGH TO START STICKING...WITH THE GROUND GETTING FAIRLY WARM SUNDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY THE SFC LOW IS STILL IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FCST AREA AND COLDER AIR NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND WITH BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS...GOING WITH MILDER MET GUIDANCE GIVEN WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING AND SOLID CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY... AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME A COASTAL LOW. AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE BY LATE MORNING...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF RNK CWA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...THEN RACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK BY MID MORNING THEN FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO RUN WARM MONDAY BUT LOWERED THEM WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING P-TYPE WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE MORNING TURNING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND NOON THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY RUSH HOUR MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY AROUND AN INCH. MONDAY NIGHT...THE ONCE CLIPPER TURNED COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTH AND BECOMES A BONAFIDE NOR-EASTER. WITH THE TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY KEEP RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVER COME DOWNSLOPING AND PUSH SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS COULD RANGE 1-3 INCHES AND UNDER AN INCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW STOPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN SLOPES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH UPSLOPE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE NOR-EASTER BOMBS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT...A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL INCREASE WINDS AND GUSTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING AND TO NEAR 10F ABOVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CHICAGO AREA WITH AN APPROACHING TRAILING COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. WILL KEEP PTYPE AS RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETUPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS LOOKED RELATIVELY DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1145 PM EST SATURDAY... AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS WAS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE WERE GUSTING UP AT 50 KNOTS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. BUFKIT HAD WINDS AT KROA AND KBCB DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AFTER 09Z/4AM. FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ONCE THE WIND DIMINISHES AND STARTS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE. THE CLIPPER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...ENTERING THE TENNESSE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING IN BUFKIT AND THE 00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE BROUGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB AFTER 03Z. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT KLWB FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT THE ONSET BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE CLIPPER AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY COMES IN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OCNL IFR DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONFIDENCE THE MVFR CIGS WILL SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. AFTER MONDAY...ANY PTYPE WILL BE SNOW WITH DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND REGION-WIDE VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/PM

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