Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 261913 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 313 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY... THIS MORNING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AIR IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGES. ADDED THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED OVER FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WARM SPELL IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY... RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MAY SEE SOME INFILTRATION OF HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY TUESDAY BUT APPEARS WONT BE THICK ENOUGH TO DETER VERY WARM HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AFTER A MILDER MONDAY NIGHT WHERE WILL SEE MAINLY 50S OUTSIDE THE VALLEYS FOR LOWS AS THE JET ALOFT ACTS TO ENHANCE MIXING. LATEST THICKNESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 85H TEMPS PROGGED NEAR 18C SHOULD ALLOW MOST TO REACH THE 70S TUESDAY WITH SOME LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS MAY THREATEN A FEW RECORDS ESPCLY WEST PER CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODEL TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS EAST. HOWEVER GIVEN MOST SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE SHOWER BAND TO QUICKLY WEAKEN CROSSING THE RIDGES WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPCLY PER LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LESS MOISTURE HEADING EAST. LATEST 12Z EURO/NAM THEN SHOW A FAINT WAVE MOVING UP THE SLOWING BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER FLARE UP OF SHOWERS THAT MAY LINGER EAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUS SLOWED UP EXODUS OF MOISTURE AND KEPT IN DECENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN HALF WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT FROM NW TO SE LATE. ALSO RUNNING WITHOUT ANY THUNDER MENTION PER LACK OF FORECAST CAPE AND SHALLOW NATURE TO MOISTURE AT THIS POINT. EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO BE DAMPENED A BIT BY CLOUDS/SHRA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR 70S SE AND 60S MOUNTAINS BEFORE ONSET OF WEAK COOL ADVECTION SETS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY... OVERALL DRY BUT MUCH COOLER PERIOD IN STORE ESPCLY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG 5H TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PERHAPS SET THE STAGE FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING EVEN OUT ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. OTRW INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY...WILL ALLOW A GLANCING SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION TO KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH ANY EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS SE EXITING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY. HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND PASSES THROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRIVE THE STRONGER 85H COLD ADVECTION TO THE SE. MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN MAINTAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE WELL TO THE NE WHERE PHASING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY TAKE PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STRONG AND MUCH COLDER NW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT THIS POINT FAR WEST. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW FINALLY BUILDS IN BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS BUT STILL CHILLY TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER GUIDANCE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY GIVEN SLIGHTLY LESS DIGGING ALOFT BUT APPEARS ENOUGH TO GO FROM 50S/LOW 60S FRIDAY...COOLING TO 40S WEST/50S EAST SATURDAY AND MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT STARTS TO DEPART. LOWS MOSTLY 30S FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL BELOW FREEZING WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. VFR TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY... WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES INTO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW WITH READINGS AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH ONLY A SLOW RECOVERY TO AROUND 50 PERCENT RIDGES AND PERHAPS 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH CURRENT 10 HOUR FUELS OF AROUND 6-8 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE COMBO OF THIS AND THE CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28... ROANOKE.....86 (1919) LYNCHBURG...88 (1919) DANVILLE....85 (1984) BLUEFIELD...77 (1984) LEWISBURG...76 (1984) BLACKSUBRG..80 (1984)
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...KK/WP FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK/RCS/WP CLIMATE...JH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.