Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 222353 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 753 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains will move south tonight. A fast moving clipper will move east through the upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a cold front through our region late Sunday night or early Monday. High pressure will then build southeast from the upper midwest and across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states from Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Saturday... Just seeing upslope cloudiness now across the west and trend is for clouds to decrease into the overnight. Winds staying up but not as gusty will make frost formation late tonight hard, though southwestern Virginia and NE TN may get into a pocket of lighter winds...hence the frost advisory here. Patchy frost not out of the question in those areas sheltered by winds elsewhere in the mountains. Previous valid discussion... The western slopes of Watauga county and Mountain Lake will also have frost but not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Models showed a pockets of isentropic lift and moisture late tonight crossing the Tennessee Valley into southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. This may impact the coverage of frost. Have gone below guidance for minimum temperatures tonight, especially in locations that have not warmed out of the lower 40s so far today and at the higher elevations that were still in the 30s. High-resolutionARW was used as a starting point for the maximum temperatures on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... The period will start with a high amplitude ridge in the west and the lingering closed low over eastern Canada creating a mean trof in the east. As the closed low opens up it will allow mean ridging to spread east out of the Rockies, but the ridge is noisy with short wave energy. In terms on sensible weather we can expect an overall dry period, though a low scooting by to our north will push a cold front into the region late Sunday night into Monday which may bring some upslope showers to the western slopes of the Appalachians in West Virginia into the Alleghany Highlands along with some gusty winds. A large area of high pressure then builds in behind the front with quiet and cooler conditions through Tuesday. Temperatures will be close to normal on Monday but will trend downward behind the front and there looks to be a good chance for widespread frost by Tuesday morning for locations still in the active growing season west of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Cool high pressure will bring us one more quiet day as it wedges down the east side of the Appalachians on Wednesday. Then, a deepening short wave will move out of the Great Lakes region and take up a position as a closed low off the mid Atlantic coast. The accompanying surface low will push a cold front through the area with a good chance of precipitation in the late Thursday/Thursday night timeframe. High pressure arrives behind the front with fair weather expected into the weekend with just some lingering showers along the western slopes on Friday. With cool high pressure over the region for most of the period and a late week cold front, expect temperatures to be running a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Saturday... Lingering VFR ceilings near LWB will scatter out by 02z. VFR elsewhere with diminishing winds as high pressure gradually shifts toward us from the southwest. Still a little gradient into Sunday so winds may pick up to around 10-15kts Sunday midday into the afternoon. Extended aviation discussion... Into Monday...Widespread VFR. High pressure building in over the Tennessee Valley then southeast United States will result in lighter wind speeds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR. A cold front enters the area Thursday with a threat of showers, and may bring some sub-VFR cigs/vsbys, but overall staying VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ007-009. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.