Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 260155 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 955 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME QUITE SPARSE. THE ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS REGARDING CLOUD COVER AND IS INDICATING A BIT OF A SWD SURGE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL THROTTLE THE CLOUDS BACK A BIT BUT KEEP THE OVERALL FLAVOR THE SAME. BELIEVE THE PREVIOUS DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS PUT THINGS IN THE RIGHT BALLPARK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LIMITED POPS...MOSTLY 15 PERCENT OR LESS...IN FAR WRN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR A SPRINKLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. QUITE THE WIND CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE DECOUPLED VS WHERE THEY HAVE NOT. LATEST OBS FROM KBCB ARE 3KT WHILE KROA IS 14G24KT. WILL ATTEMPT TO INDICATE THIS AND GIVE THE WINDS A LITTLE BUMP UPWARD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND HILLTOPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. HIGHER WINDS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH DECOUPLED LAYERS PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY... CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH THIS FRONT. CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.
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