Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRNK 231729
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
129 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016
High pressure will slide east across the region today, then
reside along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Wednesday. The next
decent chance of showers, for at least areas west of the Blue
Ridge, will be Friday when a cold front moves into the area.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 942 AM EDT Tuesday...
Temperatures running warmer than earlier forecast but high temps
should still range from the upper 70s/lower 80s west to mid 80s
east. 12z RNK sounding showed moisture around 8h level and
satellite confirms this. Models showing scattered to broken
cumulus this afternoon, so still enough sunshine to provide a warm
but less humid day.
Surface high pressure will wedge down the Mid Atlantic hanging
around through mid week. Clouds will fade in the evening and/or
transition into a stratus deck as moisture gets trapped under
subsidence inversion tonight.
With a slight uptick in dew points tonight, overnight lows will
run a few degrees warm than this morning with upper 50s west to
lower 60s east.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...
High pressure will gradually move east into the Atlantic ocean by
Thursday night. Aloft, the upper trough pattern over the region
will transition to a zonal flow will increasing geopotential
A southerly flow will increase moisture on Wednesday for the
potential of isolated showers or thunderstorms in the southwest
mountains. It will be another pleasant day Wednesday with high
temperatures from the mid 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in
the Piedmont. Good night to Open your windows Wednesday night with
low temperatures from the upper 50s in the west to the mid 60s in
On Thursday, the high center pushes further out into the Atlantic
ocean. Increased low level moisture convergence and weakening cap
will produce isolated to scattered coverage of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and just
east of the crest of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures on Thursday
will be warmer than Wednesday with readings from the the upper 70s
in the mountains to the upper 80s in the Piedmont. Any convection
should dissipate quickly around or after sunset. Thursday night, a
cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest. Its
influence may allow for some late night showers to arrive across
far western portions of the area. Low temperatures Thursday night
into Friday morning will generally be in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...
During this portion of the forecast we will transition back into
a more active pattern for daily chances of showers and storms.
There will be the potential for both diurnal and differential
heating pop- up showers and storms primarily across the mountains.
We will also have periodic shortwave troughs progress across the
area and add to the potential for additional, more organized
precipitation. Guidances varies as to the timing and magnitude of
these disturbances. However, the general consensus offers a
solution that the Sunday into Monday time frame will be when these
will become more frequent. The far eastern sections of the
forecast area will see the least amount of coverage.
Temperatures on Friday will average five to ten degrees above
normal. Each day slightly cooler conditions are expected so that
readings by Monday will be around, or slightly higher than normal.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 127 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure will drift slowly east across the region into
tonight before sliding to the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday.
This will keep widespread VFR conditions in place under scattered
to broken afternoon cumulus/stratocumulus each day. The only
exception will be early morning fog mainly at western TAF sites,
especially KLWB and possibly BCB where MVFR/IFR will be possible
between 09z- 12z.
Extended aviation discussion...
Thursday a bit more moisture will work its way north into western
parts of the area on the west side of a departing high pressure.
Isolated showers will be possible across the mountains, but for
the most part, VFR conditions will still prevail.
On Friday, there is a greater chance of showers, and possibly
some storms, with the approach of our next cold front. Pockets of
MVFR conditions will again occur briefly under the stronger
showers or storms.
The front lingers in the area during the weekend keeping enough
moisture for diurnal mountain showers and storms when periods of
MVFR could occur.