Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231748 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 148 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley today, will move east and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight. A fast moving upper level disturbance will move east through the upper Midwest today, bringing a cold front through our region late tonight or early Monday. High pressure will then build southeast from the upper Midwest and across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states from Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Cool start this morning with temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s. A northwesterly breeze continues, especially across the higher ridges with wind chills in the upper 20s. High pressure extends from the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf Coast. This feature will move east today, providing fair weather throughout the southeastern U.S.,including the Mid Atlantic. Clockwise flow around the high will result in a continuation of a westerly sort of breeze across the forecast area throughout the day today. Temperatures this afternoon will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Saturday under Mostly Sunny skies. A fast moving upper level disturbance (short wave trough) will move east across the upper midwest today. A clipper sort of surface low and associated surface front will move from the upper midwest into the Great Lakes by this evening. The surface front will cross the Ohio Valley tonight, moving across the mountains late tonight or very early Monday. The front is expected to be dry with only a shallow layer of low level cloudiness which will fade as the front crosses the mountains early Monday. The biggest by- product from the front will be a re-enforcing shot of dry air along with breezy conditions. That said, tonight`s low temperatures (which are progged to be in the 40s) will likely occur early, with mixing from the wind resulting in steady or rising temperatures late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... An upper level shortwave trough and associated cold front is expected to sweep east of the area on Monday. The bulk of the energy and moisture will remain north of the region near PA/NY/NJ. At this point, only western Greenbrier County West Virginia has isolated showers forecast on Monday. The remainder of the region will be precipitation free. However, expect gusty winds to continue across the region with the potential for the higher peaks to reach 30 to 40 mph in the morning, but taper to values closer to 15 to 25 mph by the afternoon. Piedmont regions can expect 10 to 20 mph gusts early, but decrease as the day progresses. A broad area of high pressure will move into the area behind the front and keep our forecast on the dry side through at least early Wednesday night. Winds will slowly decrease in speed as the center of the high draws closer and the pressure gradient slackens. Our next chance of precipitation will come late Wednesday night as an area of low pressure moves eastward through the Great Lakes region. Isolated showers are expected across parts of southeast West Virginia. Cloud cover will be increasing from west to east during the night in association with this system. The remainder of the forecast area will remain precipitation free Wednesday night. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend cooler each day. Expect readings on Monday to average about ten degrees above normal. By Wednesday, temperatures will average five degrees below normal. Frost will be possible across parts of the New and Greenbrier River Valleys and portions of the southern Alleghany Highlands late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, and will be reflected as such in the forecast. Frost will also be possible over parts of the New and Greenbrier River Valleys and the Mountain Empire and Grayson Highlands regions of southwest Virginia Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. However, this will not be reflected in the forecast as October 25th will have marked the end of our freeze/frost program for these regions for the forecast area. From October 26th and onward into the winter climatologically speaking, frosts and freezes are a normal occurrence and not specifically mentioned. The freeze/frost program for our eastern counties continues until November 15th. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Cool high pressure will bring us one more quiet day as it wedges down the east side of the Appalachians on Wednesday. Then, a deepening short wave will move out of the Great Lakes region and take up a position as a closed low off the mid Atlantic coast. The accompanying surface low will push a cold front through the area with a good chance of precipitation in the late Thursday/Thursday night timeframe. High pressure arrives behind the front with fair weather expected into the weekend with just some lingering showers along the western slopes on Friday. With cool high pressure over the region for most of the period and a late week cold front, expect temperatures to be running a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Sunday... Conditions were VFR across southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina this afternoon. Morning soundings from the area showed winds up to 40 knots under the surface based inversion so expecting gusty west-northwest winds this afternoon. Peak wind gusts will be from 20 to 30 knots, with the stronger winds at the higher elevations. A fast moving upper level disturbance will move from Wisconsin into Pennsylvania by Monday morning. Any precip with this feature remaining well north of the region. Biggest impact will be the passage of a dry cold front early Monday resulting in another uptick in wind speed with potential gusts of 20-25 kts out of the northwest on Monday. Models showed the potential for clouds on the western slopes of the Appalachians between 06Z/2AM and 18Z/2PM mainly along and behind the front. Medium to high confidence that KLWB and KBLF will remain VFR. Limited cloud cover is expected east of the mountains with the front. Extended aviation discussion... Monday night high pressure will build across the area with diminishing winds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR. Thursday...Low pressure is forecast to move across the upper midwest and into the Great lakes with a surface front crossing the Ohio Valley. Threat for showers and sub-VFR will be possible along this front which would impact the central Appalachians for Thursday and Thursday night. Attm, this does not appear that it will have a significant impact to our region. Biggest impact would be from Ohio Valley north into Great Lakes closer to the surface low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Little or no rain has fallen across the northwest North Carolina Piedmont in the last 14 days. Conditions are becoming increasingly dry for western North Carolina, just east of the Blue Ridge. Drying conditions will continue for this region again today, and for much of the upcoming work week. Passage of a dry front early Monday may pose control problems for fire lee of the Blue Ridge, and especially for areas which have not seen rainfall. Greatest concern would be from Mount Airy, North Carolina, and areas to the southwest, including Pilot Mountain. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible Monday, coupled with humidity minimums near 30 percent. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/PM FIRE WEATHER...PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.