Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 262222 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 522 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 430 PM EST MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT. THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMERATURES FALL THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...YEILDING 2 TO 1. AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT. OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG... SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST. QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE 20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD OUTBREAK.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. && .EQUIPMENT...
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HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERUPTIONS IN THE AREA. THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-020. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ507-508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM EQUIPMENT...PM

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