Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 130022
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
822 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Through Thursday, high pressure over the southeast United
States will keep the weather dry and warmer over our region.
Friday, low pressure will track from the Rockies to the Ohio
Valley, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the eastern
United States. More precipitation is possible on Sunday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday...
Forecast update for this evening is minor, reflecting evening
cooling temperatures and cloud cover as high clouds pass
overhead. However, adjusted dewpoint temperatures for Wednesday,
lowering them by a few degrees given little change in airmass
across the region and downsloping due to westerly windflow.
Abundant sunshine will make for another warm day as highs reach
into the 60s and 70s.
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Dry weather and lighter wind through Wednesday
Good mixing this afternoon will lead to surface dew points mainly in
the 20s and relative humidities 18-25 percent. Surface high pressure
will gradually move to the southeastern U.S. tonight. Winds
will become light starting this evening with dew points
increasing and relative humidities recovering overnight.
Along with the dry air, full sunshine will support warmer than
normal temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures along ridges and
east of the Blue Ridge will be mild overnight, ranging in the low to
mid 40s. Lighter winds in the valleys should allow them to decouple
into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise.
We should see a few more high clouds on Wednesday, but that will not
deter temperatures from warming into the 60s across the mountains to
low 70s east of the Blue Ridge.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 211 PM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
1) Warm and dry Thu.
2) A decent chance of showers Friday, but not a lot of rain.
Deterministic models are similar today in keeping us on the mild/dry
side into Thursday, with mostly sunny skies during the day.
Dewpoints will start to increase ahead of the front moving in from
the mid MS Valley Friday. As it appears now, based on latest
model/ensemble trends look for showers to trek into the WV mountains
by Friday morning then shift east to the piedmont by afternoon but
will again be more scattered since westerly flow and downslope could
break the line up. Some instability around so a few thunderstorms
possible mainly in the WV/far SW Va mountains and southside VA into
NC.
Starts to dry out late Friday night and just slightly cooler Sat
morning.
Highs Thursday will be in the 70s, then dropping to the 50s for lows
Friday morning. Even with increased clouds and rain chances Friday
highs will again be in the 70s east of the mountains, but tallying
back to the 60s in the mountains.
Forecast confidence is high on temps/sky cover and wind and moderate
to high on precip chances.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1202 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1) Mild this weekend with chance of showers Sunday.
2) Turning much colder early next week.
Models trending colder next week but before that similar over
the weekend with a mainly dry Saturday between systems, then
northern stream trough digs into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
Sunday allowing a southern stream shortwave to track across the
deep South into the Carolinas. Models in general agreement that
our area will be split between the deeper moisture over the
southeast and the precip with the northern front. Still enough
agreement to have low chance pops Sunday.
Starting Sunday night into early next week, 8h temps start to
plummet thanks to the deepening northern stream trough with a
closed low over Quebec. Early next week appears that most areas
will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs by Tuesday
ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s west to lower 50s in the
piedmont. Moisture seems limited with northwest flow but snow
showers are possible Monday into Tuesday over the higher ridges
of WV into portions of SW VA/NW NC, but at this stage, not
seeing any impacts. Winds will pick up with this system but look
less than what we experienced this past weekend.
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.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...
VFR weather through the TAF forecast period.
West wind 8-12 knots gusting as high as 20 knots this afternoon.
Winds will subside this evening. Winds will remain westerly and
under 10 knots on Wednesday.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure with dry VFR conditions expected through Thursday.
A front will approach Friday and bring MVFR or lower conditions
along with showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds showers in the
mountains may linger into Saturday morning. Otherwise Saturday will
be VFR east of the Blue Ridge.
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.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS