Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 130022 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 822 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Through Thursday, high pressure over the southeast United States will keep the weather dry and warmer over our region. Friday, low pressure will track from the Rockies to the Ohio Valley, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the eastern United States. More precipitation is possible on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday... Forecast update for this evening is minor, reflecting evening cooling temperatures and cloud cover as high clouds pass overhead. However, adjusted dewpoint temperatures for Wednesday, lowering them by a few degrees given little change in airmass across the region and downsloping due to westerly windflow. Abundant sunshine will make for another warm day as highs reach into the 60s and 70s. As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday... Key message: - Dry weather and lighter wind through Wednesday Good mixing this afternoon will lead to surface dew points mainly in the 20s and relative humidities 18-25 percent. Surface high pressure will gradually move to the southeastern U.S. tonight. Winds will become light starting this evening with dew points increasing and relative humidities recovering overnight. Along with the dry air, full sunshine will support warmer than normal temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures along ridges and east of the Blue Ridge will be mild overnight, ranging in the low to mid 40s. Lighter winds in the valleys should allow them to decouple into the mid to upper 30s by sunrise. We should see a few more high clouds on Wednesday, but that will not deter temperatures from warming into the 60s across the mountains to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 211 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Warm and dry Thu. 2) A decent chance of showers Friday, but not a lot of rain. Deterministic models are similar today in keeping us on the mild/dry side into Thursday, with mostly sunny skies during the day. Dewpoints will start to increase ahead of the front moving in from the mid MS Valley Friday. As it appears now, based on latest model/ensemble trends look for showers to trek into the WV mountains by Friday morning then shift east to the piedmont by afternoon but will again be more scattered since westerly flow and downslope could break the line up. Some instability around so a few thunderstorms possible mainly in the WV/far SW Va mountains and southside VA into NC. Starts to dry out late Friday night and just slightly cooler Sat morning. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s, then dropping to the 50s for lows Friday morning. Even with increased clouds and rain chances Friday highs will again be in the 70s east of the mountains, but tallying back to the 60s in the mountains. Forecast confidence is high on temps/sky cover and wind and moderate to high on precip chances. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1202 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Mild this weekend with chance of showers Sunday. 2) Turning much colder early next week. Models trending colder next week but before that similar over the weekend with a mainly dry Saturday between systems, then northern stream trough digs into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes Sunday allowing a southern stream shortwave to track across the deep South into the Carolinas. Models in general agreement that our area will be split between the deeper moisture over the southeast and the precip with the northern front. Still enough agreement to have low chance pops Sunday. Starting Sunday night into early next week, 8h temps start to plummet thanks to the deepening northern stream trough with a closed low over Quebec. Early next week appears that most areas will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs by Tuesday ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s west to lower 50s in the piedmont. Moisture seems limited with northwest flow but snow showers are possible Monday into Tuesday over the higher ridges of WV into portions of SW VA/NW NC, but at this stage, not seeing any impacts. Winds will pick up with this system but look less than what we experienced this past weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR weather through the TAF forecast period. West wind 8-12 knots gusting as high as 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will subside this evening. Winds will remain westerly and under 10 knots on Wednesday. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure with dry VFR conditions expected through Thursday. A front will approach Friday and bring MVFR or lower conditions along with showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds showers in the mountains may linger into Saturday morning. Otherwise Saturday will be VFR east of the Blue Ridge. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...NF/RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...RCS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.