Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221938 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 338 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper low over the area will finally head offshore by Monday evening, then head north toward the New England coast Tuesday. As this occurs high pressure builds in and temperatures will start to rise back to at and above normal mid to late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 pm EDT Sunday... Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue from Southwest VA/SE West Virginia, east to the Piedmont thru evening, with storms dying off after dusk. High-res models favoring two corridors now for best coverage...albeit still mainly scattered. One over the far SW VA mountains and the other still from the Alleghanys to Southside VA. There may be a lull in activity overnight between shortwaves, but another stronger wave moving in from KY into SC overnight combined with the upper low over NC will keep threat going thru Monday morning...but looks like the piedmont has better threat. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s west to lower 50s east. Monday, the upper low slowly moves off the NC/VA coast by will continue to see shortwaves rotate in from the north on the west side of this system. Still looks at least a scattered coverage of mainly showers over most of the forecast area by midday into the afternoon. With more clouds than sun across the area look for highs to be similar to today from the mid to upper 60s west to upper 60s to lower 70s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 306 pm EDT Sunday... A pattern change is coming finally for those who have not enjoyed the cooler weather. As the upper low pulls away to the north toward the New England coast Tuesday, upper heights will rise with surface high pressure building overhead. Lingering showers over the northeast CWA will diminish Monday evening. Skies clear but temps will only fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday will start the warmup but highs will be close to normal for late May ranging from the lower to mid 70s west to upper 70s to around 80 east under mainly sunny skies. Dewpoints to start edging up into the 50s Tuesday night into Wednesday as the high moves to off the Southeast coast, but staying strong enough to keep skies clear to partly cloudy. Somewhat westerly flow Wednesday allow temps to soar into the mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Models are keeping the main storm track over the middle of the country, though as we start to heat up cannot rule out a stray shower in the afternoon over the higher terrain.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1211 PM EDT Sunday... Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and weather from midweek into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry yet more humid conditions. There will be enough instability and moisture each day across the Appalachians to generate scattered showers and thunderstorm, with less threat in the Piedmont. The cycle will be typical diurnal afternoon/evening variety. Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will generally run from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s piedmont. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Sunday... Aviation concerns will be centered on scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from the Lewisburg vicinity east and southeast toward Danville. Overall best threat for predominant showers will be Lewisburg and perhaps Lynchburg. Otherwise will see a broken deck of CU/SC with isolated CBs in the 3-6kft range. Northwest to North winds will be gusty at times, particularly over Roanoke to Bluefield. These winds will be subsiding after 00z this evening. Scattered showers expected to wane, and eventually end over the entire terminal forecast area tonight following loss of daytime heating. However, some isolated lingering showers/sprinkles may occur until after midnight along and east of a KLYH-KDAN line which will remain closer to an upper level low pressure system near the coast. Models favor some lowering of broken cigs to around 1-3kft with some MVFR fog. Confidence just high enough to at least go MVFR at most sites. Will see continuation of mainly broken ceilings Monday though should rise to VFR by late morning. Showers and isolated storms again possible moreso east of Danville to Lynchburg line, though some may slip toward the mountains in the afternoon but coverage will be more isolated. Extended discussion... Overall looking at improving aviation weather after the upper low lifts out Monday night into Tuesday. We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week. Overall, VFR expected but watch for early morning fog at times around LWB/BCB. Also some convection could pop up in the mountains Thu-Fri. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP

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